The JN.1.* +FLiRT variants now make up 27% of sequences and XDK.* which is recombinant of JN.1.1.1 and XBB.1.16.11 is remaining at 5% for now. Graph tools by @mike_honey_ 🧵 1/
JN.1 #Pirola has dropped to 7% frequency and JN.1.4 down to 9% while KP.3 FLuQE is now most prevalent at 26% while the FLiRT variants are much lower at KP.2 (6%) and KS.1 (5%). 2/
KP.3 has the F456L and Q493E mutations (FLuQE nickname) while the FLiRT variants have the same F456L mutation but a different R346T mutation. Ryan Hisner explains how FLiRT is a typical stepwise mutation but Q493E is very rare and may be different ( https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1788341550818193443 ). 3/
@mike_honey_ is now automatically generating new variant reports when he updates his data for various locations so it is easy to just click on a link and get the latest PDF version of the report instead of having to navigate through his tool.
How well can people with previous vaccines and/or infections neutralize these new mutations? Pre-print studies are starting to come out evaluating this. XBB infection on its own provides almost no neutralization against FLiRT and FLuQE ( https://twitter.com/yunlong_cao/status/1782775678343205220 ).
The results show someone infected with JN.1 only has half the neutralization with the KP.3 FLuQE variant and people who had a previous XBB infection was even worse at 2.4x lower. 5/
Note, these neutralization levels are 37x lower (NT50 around from 51 to 177) for KP.3 compared to the levels against BA.5 which were 1833 to 1902 so while there is some neutralization it isn't much.
These results are the mutations we are seeing today. In another 4 months when a new vaccine is supposed to be deployed, results could be a lot worse than 50% lower than an already low number so new vaccines should at least catch up with current escape mutations. 6/
Despite many hospitals declaring the end of the respiratory virus season in Ontario and relaxing or removing mask requirements already, there is still a lot of viral activity going on and COVID rising again.
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