18+ svat, 22 days ago

@christianp Just curious, do the poll results let you see how many people chose each combination of answers? (How many got it right?) If so, how do the results compare to what's reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wason_selection_task and https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED489556 (= https://www.kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp/EMIS/proceedings/PME28/RR/RR050_Inglis.pdf ) ?

18+ christianp, 22 days ago

@svat yes, I think I'll be able to get that. I'm planning to do something with the stats when I have the time

dneary, 23 days ago

@christianp This reminds me of the Veritasium episode where he asked people to figure out a rule, and gives them a set of three numbers that follow the rule: 1, 2, 4. Their job is to offer other strings of 3 numbers and be told whether they do or do not follow the rule, and based on this, guess the rule.

dneary, 23 days ago

@christianp everyone without fail starts by guessing 2, 4, 8 or 8, 16, 32. And yes, those follow the rule. They never think that they are only getting new information if they find sequences that don't follow the rule, then concentrate on how they are different.

christianp, 23 days ago

@dneary abductive logic! Love it!
There was a really good, unpolished android game called Caterpillar Logic that used this idea, but it looks like the developer hasn't updated it to Google's satisfaction so it's disappeared from the Play Store

sedincore, 24 days ago

@christianp this is a first order logic question.

We want here a => b

a is: "card shows even number"
b: "opposite side is purple"

you use the truth table of =>:

a b a=>b
F F T
F T T
T F F
T T T

(F: false, T:true)

now to decide what to do:

• yellow means b=F, we need to check a because with b=F a=>b may be F or T

• 5 is a=F, no need to check; a=>b is T when a=F

• 4 is a=T, need to check

• purple is b=T, no need to check

(this is math thinking, layman thinking may differ)

christianp, 24 days ago

@sedincore can you put a content warning on that please?

sedincore, 24 days ago

@christianp ah ok, sorry, i thought the exercise was over

christianp, 24 days ago

@sedincore oh yes it is, you're quite right!

mszll, 25 days ago

@christianp not many Hempelians on mastodon https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox

christianp, 25 days ago

@mszll I hadn't heard of that before!

outofthenorm, 18 days ago

@christianp @mszll Nor I! Thanks, you’ve made my morning! 😊

dginev, 25 days ago

@christianp The poll results remind me of LLM output probabilities. Crowd intelligence is a curious thing.

18+ xgranade, 25 days ago

@christianp IIUC, the trick is that you never need to check purple... it passes whether the opposite is even or odd since (false => true) === true.