Russian rhetoric toward central Asia grows increasingly hostile, reminiscent of the language used toward Ukraine before its invasion

The hostile rhetoric and actions from Russia have eroded trust and relations between Russia and Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a change in Russian public and media figures’ rhetoric toward Central Asia. They turned the rare hostile statement into regular lines of attack from the Kremlin’s propaganda machine. A month after the invasion, another Duma deputy, Sergei Savostyanov, offered to expand the ongoing “denazification and demilitarization operation” in Ukraine to include Kazakhstan, among other post-Soviet states.

A month after this incident, Russian television host and husband of the central propaganda figure Margarita Simonyan, Tegran Keosyan, accused Kazakhstan of “ungratefulness” and threatened the country, calling for it “to look at Ukraine” in response to the country’s decision to cancel the annual parade commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory in the World War II.

Even high-level Russian officials have made hostile statements toward Central Asia, questioning their sovereignty and statehood. In August 2022, Russia’s former president and deputy chair of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, designated Kazakhstan as an “artificial state” built on the territory gifted by Russia. Medvedev further blamed Astana for implementing policies that “could be classified as genocide of [ethnic] Russians”.

[Edit typo.]

Vikthor,

I wonder what will China do if they attack Central Asia. Or have they already agreed on spheres of influence, Molotov-Ribbentrop style?

0x815,

China’s ambassador to France already said last year that “countries that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union 'don’t have effective status under international law.” I guess that’s telling.

CanadaPlus,

I don’t know why China would do that. What could Russia cede back to them to make it worthwhile?

Vikthor,

Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan? Parts of Kazakhstan? Free hand in Mongolia? Who knows…

CanadaPlus,

Unless it was before Russia was revealed as weak, and all of the above were offered, that doesn’t seem like a very fair trade. The status quo suits China’s interests very well.

Scrof,

China has bitter claims on Vladivostok and half of Siberia, they’re not gonna let Putin take ANYTHING in Asia.

CanadaPlus, (edited )

Yeah. If Russia collapses as a result of this war they’re absolutely going to want a strong hand in the Far East and maybe even some of the stuff north of Kazakhstan (that is, the Siberian federal district proper).

photoncollector,
@photoncollector@mastodon.social avatar

@CanadaPlus @Scrof
I'm willing to bet that the Chinese are going to invade the part of Russia that used to China's; possibly with help from North Korea, within 4 years.

tal,
@tal@lemmy.today avatar

foreignpolicy.com/…/central-asia-russia-china-kaz…

Central Asian countries have always made a strong play for being the master of their own destinies. Policymakers in the region tout their ability to sit in the driver’s seat and navigate international relations through balancing everyone against each other. Yet last month’s high-level engagements with China and Russia have instead served to highlight Central Asia countries’ growing bonds with both powers and the shrinking room for maneuver they have in international relations.

The invasion of Ukraine has thrown Beijing’s role in Central Asia newly into question, both in terms of Moscow’s bandwidth to play a security provider role in the region while Ukraine consumes its military, and fears about how Moscow’s revanchist eye might turn toward the region.

In Kazakhstan, this fear is acute given the ease with which one can look at the country through Moscow’s eyes and see a very similar history that could justify an incursion as Putin did in Ukraine. The nation shares a long border with Russia and has a large ethnically Russian population that often feels targeted by national policies seeking to advance the Kazakh language. Senior Russian figures (including Putin) have questioned the nation’s statehood. Back in September 2014, after he first pushed an incursion into Ukraine, Putin seemed to deny Kazakh statehood in a speech, saying that then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev had “created a state on a territory that never had a state.”

Consequently, when Xi visited Kazakhstan in September 2022, a lot of public noise was made about his declaration that China would support “Kazakhstan in safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Among more optimistic public commentators, this was seen as a clear message to defend Kazakhstan against potential Russian aggression.

In contrast, speaking to officials in Kazakhstan and the wider region, we found a far more sanguine picture. Most of them noted the similarity in what Xi said in Kazakhstan to what China had said about Ukraine before the Russian invasion (and even in the peace plan proposed by China), and China’s lack of action in stopping the conflict there. “We are on our own” was one particularly stark assessment we heard in Kazakhstan.

This highlights both the fact that China and Russia are eager to coordinate in Central Asia and that their basic aims in the region are the same. This complicates diplomacy for the Central Asian governments that have long sought to play the two countries off each other. And it is a perfect articulation of the shrinking geopolitical space that Central Asia increasingly finds itself within.

Entirely surrounded by powers in some level of conflict with the West, Central Asia finds its options are increasingly limited. This is not to say other options are not available—simultaneous to the Xian summit, Kazakhstan hosted a high-level economic forum with the European Union; the United States is a constant presence; and Turkey has made a great deal of noise about Turkic influence in the region over the past year via the Organization of Turkic States. But as the ties that bind China and Russia thicken, Central Asia will struggle to really balance against them.

Roflmasterbigpimp, (edited )
@Roflmasterbigpimp@lemmy.world avatar
Stalinwolf,
@Stalinwolf@lemmy.ca avatar

D’Billions will kick their asses the fuck out of Kyrgyzstan.

CanadaPlus,

Sure, start another front. That will help. That always helps fascist governments. /s

HubertManne,
HubertManne avatar

Im amazed russia is able to keep going.

photoncollector,
@photoncollector@mastodon.social avatar

@HubertManne @0x815 @CanadaPlus
Russia is spending 40% of its budget on the war. Nothing else is getting done.

CanadaPlus, (edited )

Yeah. They’ve doubled down over and over again. Eventually, a martingale strategy like that runs out of resources to wager, but it hasn’t happened yet, and it’s hard to say when it would be, exactly.

They say autocracies look strong until they don’t.

AngryCommieKender,

Maybe Putin can start in Afghanistan. That always goes well for the invading country.

CanadaPlus,

It’s so dumb that happened multiple times. Afghanistan hasn’t being strategically important since around the time the Portuguese first rounded the Cape. And one could imagine a future where the Chinese do it too, if the jihadists in the region start bothering them.

0x815,

Russia Looks to South Asia for Immigrant Workers as Flow from Central Asia Dries Up

Moscow is looking to South Asia as a source of new immigrants to compensate for the demographic decline of the Russian population and declining numbers of migrant workers from Central Asia.

Such a policy faces enormous obstacles given both the negative attitudes of the Russian population toward immigrants and the Kremlin’s desire to compel immigrants to serve in its military.

Unless it succeeds, the Kremlin may not have the manpower to implement its repressive policies at home and continue its aggression abroad.

ahriboy,
@ahriboy@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

Umm… You need proficiency in Russian language and history. Russians will need to learn English and respective regional language in India.

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