@mastodonindians - Shiva Sena has been an important factor in NDA's rise in MMR. But BJP seem to have narrowed its gap with Sena since 2012.
If NDA gets even 40% of Sena-NCP votes, it is likely to win 7 seats. For MVA, even getting 70% of Sena-NCP votes is likely to only bring 3 MMR seats. (3/4)
@mastodonindians *Note: ENOP is the reciprocal of the sum of squares of vote share of candidates in a constituency, and a higher number suggests that more candidates are in the fray. The median PC-wise ENOP in MMR stood at 3.4, 2.6, and 2.2 in 2009, 2014 and 2019 respectively. (4/4)
14 out of 28 constituencies in Karnataka will vote in the second phase of Lok Sabha elections on Friday. Past records show that the BJP has had an edge in LS elections over Assembly elections in the last 3 election cycles in the state. For Congress, the trend has been the opposite. Which way could Karnataka vote in 2024? Here are 3 charts which answer this question.