In Scotland, of course, many of those who turn away from Labour to express their dissent over the #GazaGenocide will turn to the SNP; and this is especially so in West Central Scotland where Labour were expecting to make a breakthrough which they will now very likely not make.
The #NewsAgents podcast reported this evening that there is in preparation a well funded slate of independent candidates preparing to run against Labour, implicitly seeking the Muslim vote. I don't know what their sources are for this, but they tend to be well informed.
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The News Agents: Why are Labour defending a conspiracy theorist?
Of course it's possible that if money is being thrown at running a slate of Muslim candidates in seats that #Labour need to win, the source of that money is #Conservative mischief makers. But even if that is the case, there is a possibility of something hopeful and positive here.
We don't know how large the proportion of British Jews is who oppose #genocide, but I would guess that it is large. Similarly, we don't know what proportion is of Labour voters generally see human rights and an ethical foreign policy as must-have issues, but again I'd guess it isn't small. Put those groups together with the majority of Muslims and the young #PeoplesMomentum activists whom #Labour has deliberately alienated, and you have a formidable block.
If the left in England can forge these groups into a coherent voting block – and I don't think that would be difficult to do – then you could see a new left party emerge this year which could take seats from #Labour in Inner London, Bradford, Burnley, Rochdale, perhaps Birmingham and other places; and this in turn could force #Starmer to accept the SNP and this new left party as coalition partners to keep the #Conservatives out.
I think at this point for all but the most hardcore it is tactical voting to GTTO.
Where I live last time out there were than 590 votes between Labour & Conservative (Conservative win) - Greens got 1148, and the Lib Dems 2750 - so a few tactical votes from Greens & Lib Dems could of swung it.
@happy@StingrayBadger but with the #Conservatives stabbing one another in the backs and #Labour committing very public hara kiri, I think the next election could see both become also-rans.
@ferryoons@happy@StingrayBadger well, this is what happens when voters get disillusioned with politics. It is a sort of collective depression. But unless we can somehow transmute it into something positive, it just helps the status quo – and at present, that is precisely the opposite of what we need.
@StingrayBadger I see #Greens as quite possibly part of this same mix. However, from a Scottish viewpoint we see English Greens with representatives in the House of Lords and a very equivocal position on #Trans rights, and so it's not very easy to see how radical they actually are.
I have a great deal of respect for @CarolineLucas , but she's standing down this election; I have no clear idea of what other English Greens actually believe.
Believe about what specifically, other than trans rights? On that issue, we stand with our trans brothers and sisters, and like to think that we can be part of a constructive and evidence-based debate that affirms all women, natal and trans.
In more general terms, we are on the left, but there are significant cultural differences with the established, urban-centric left.
Much of the Greens' electoral support comes from rural, conservative-minded folk who have become radicalised by environmental concerns. This is a political constituency that should be cultivated, but I don't see the urban left taking much interest in rural and small-town communities.
The point I'm making here is that it is not hard to put together a manifesto of left of centre policies which would move a very solid chunk of Labour voters, either forcing #Starmer to swerve sharply left to avoid a split (and we know he can turn on a sixpence), or taking enough seats off #Labour to force it to make significant concessions in a coalition negotiation. Either way it's a win.
@simon_brooke I think it's going to take a lot to make Labour swerve left. They're fixated on winning the votes of folks that would have voted Tory before they swerved right.
Of course a whole new party actually doing well is a lot. But historically no new party does that right away.
@fishidwardrobe but the future is not history. Yes, the past is a guide; but I don't believe we've ever had a time in British history when "the two main parties" have been so contemptible, so useless, so empty of ideas, of policy, of ambition and of talent.
"It's never happened before" is true but not useful. The future is what we make it.
And I have to say, if my suspicion that mischievous #Conservative funders are putting the money up for this is correct, then for me that adds spice to the joke – because this could be an enormous win for the left, which could move the #OvertonWindow so far that the #Conservatives would be invisible for a generation.
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