hotdogsladies,
@hotdogsladies@mastodon.social avatar

@kjhealy

A statistics-adjacent question.

It seems like the more people who play a given lottery, the fewer people win. So fewer people would play.

If this wasn’t a good guess, what’s a likely candidate for my bias?

On my go, you have several (seven) hours.

kjhealy,
@kjhealy@mastodon.social avatar

@hotdogsladies I see @calebsexton has provided an answer! I will add that an Econ lecturer of mine liked to remark that whenever he got the urge to play the lottery, he would take money out of his wallet and set it on fire with a cigarette lighter until the feeling went away.

calebsexton,
@calebsexton@mastodon.social avatar

@hotdogsladies @kjhealy It’s the difference between a lottery and a raffle. The winning raffle ticket is chosen from all the tickets sold. The winning lottery ticket is chosen form every ticket that could be sold.

The chances of any one ticket winning a raffle decrease as sales increase.

The chances of any ticket winning a lottery are always the same.

hotdogsladies,
@hotdogsladies@mastodon.social avatar

@calebsexton @kjhealy

That seems like a really smart distinction, Caleb. Thank you!

hotdogsladies,
@hotdogsladies@mastodon.social avatar

@kjhealy

Contemplated in a long line at a convenience store.

Because I’m a regular Thomas Friedman.

pomCountyIrregs,
@pomCountyIrregs@mstdn.social avatar

@hotdogsladies @kjhealy I’d offer an answer, but I’m not a cab driver.

hotdogsladies,
@hotdogsladies@mastodon.social avatar

@pomCountyIrregs

Thank you, this will be a good anecdote for me to tell.

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