trendless, R0
#CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #FluIsAirborne #RNaught
c.2022, elizabeth emerson designs Covid with R3 (The R was approximately 2.4 initially but it rapidly increased so we will use R3) Day 1: 1 Day 5: 3 Day 10: 9 Day 15: 27 This is a simplistic explanation of how the original Covid variant spread. At day 15 a single infected person would be responsible for 27 infections. Approximately 21mil people caught Covid in 2020 in the US. Of that 385,000 people died. The mortality rate was an average 1.8%.15 TIMES as lethal as the flu. So instead of needing 833 people with the flu to see one death, you only needed 55 people catching Covid to get 1 death. It would take about 18 days to see that death starting with this single infection. Meaning if you were unmasked & infected YOU killed someone in 18 days.
c.2022, elizabeth emerson designs Covid with R12 (Covid-19 variant BA2) Day 1: 1 Day 5: 12 Day 10: 144 Day 15: 1728 This is a simple explanation of how quickly Covid variant BA2 is spreading. At day 15 a single infected person would be responsible for 1,728 Covid cases. Day 20? That single person could infect 20,736 others! Let's look at the MORTALITY rate. Estimates vary, so I averaged the numbers to 0.5% mortality. Oh that's great! It's way less than 1.8%. So instead of needing 55 people with Covid original to see one death, you need 200 people catching Covid-BA2 to get 1 death. That's better right? Wrong. It would take about 18 days to see a death with the original Covid, but because BA2 is SO CONTAGIOUS it would only take 11 days! Now let's say only 10% of those infected get severe Long Covid. You disabled 173 people forever at day 15 & 2,074 by day 20.
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