Yes please Discord, it is so worrying how everyone has all their private messages and content in an unencrypted app owned by a corporation who gives 0 shit about privacy. They won't even delete your messages if you delete your account/leave servers / get banned. In fact there is no way to delete all your messages
This is actually not true about deleting messages. If you delete your message it's erased from their servers. If you just delete your account, your message logs stay on the server.
Discord is a likely contender, but I think it's likely to be Instagram. It's got a very dissatisfied userbase, and there's already a few reasonably active pixelfed servers
As others have said, ads. The app is also overrun with spambots posting links to scams to buy followers or ForEx or whatever they're selling. The algorithm is really, really bad, at least if you're an artist of any kind. IG was one of the first apps to attempt to steal TikTok's short-form video format, which means it's hard to get your content out there if you're just posting images. And there are a LOT of content reposters.
I really don't understand where you're getting this from. Because, at least my Instagram, is thriving. Honestly, I see so much wonderful art on it every day, it's ridiculous. I also follow many news outlets, magazines on it. The platform has never been better. Also, it has the advantage of having my entire professional and social circles on it. Everyone I know is using it daily, interact with each other.
Also, you can hide that barrage of reels very easily. Just tap [...] on a suggested reel, then tap "Disable suggestions for a month". It does exactly what it says.
First Facebook with their whole meta thing, then Imgur deleting all NSFW content and images uploaded by non-registered members, afterwards Twitter and now Reddit.
Discord had a few changes the community didn't like, but nothing ground breaking yet. But they get more and more greedy and their platform is filled with scams, hackers, bots and sadly many bad people like child predators and content which Discord support does nothing against. They seem not to care.
YouTube, well, I think they might be next actually. More and longer unskipable ads, restricting or demonetizing many videos, bad communication with their creators and less rewards for smaller creators. In addition, they might put high quality resolutions behind their already existing expensive subscription paywall. There isn't any competition which is urgently needed.
Signal would actually be a decent Snapchat replacement since it can do both disappearing messages and stories. now if only they'd finally release usernames and phone number privacy.
I don't really see YouTube failing anytime soon. They have such a massive userbase, it's hard to imagine any other platform taking over anytime soon, regardless of shitty UX decisions. Creating a successful video platform like they have is an enormous challenge, the only reason they succeeded is because they were early.
@hampter@noodlejetski@Nankerucough TikTok cough
In all seriousness, Google does not know what to do with YT. It is very hard to monetize. They tried to do whole TV thing, which fell flat on it's face. it keeps being huge money sink, and moderation is nightmare and algorithms seems to fucking up constantly.
They can't get rid of it, because it is huge, but it is not fire sure profit.
I don't know about YouTube not being profitable, but even if they aren't, you'd be hard pressed to find a company better equipped to handle a money sink that Google. In 2022, they had a gross profit of 156 billion... I don't think they are panicking, scrambling to monetize YT at Alphabet HQ.
@hampter@noodlejetski@Nankeru I think it is just a failure of your imagination...corpos think in terms of "why have only some of money, if we can have all the money". Not sure pushing YT Premium subs and being almost torturous obsessive with scam ads indicate they somehow cool with sinking money in YT pit.
The problem with anything video is still that it costs way too much to host, unless you're a giant who already has their own data centers and massive data pipes. You can't just throw it on a cheap VPS like text-based services
Are you thinking of it as a centralized replacement to YouTube? If you're centralized, yeah, you probably need a data centre the size of Malta. There are decentralized alternatives (like PeerTube) where the cost is also distributed. If you're using PeerTube, you literally can "just throw it on a cheap VPS", and lots of people do, with no problems.
I think the real reason decentralized video isn't going to catch on is because video (and YouTube in particular) has not been a community thing for many years now. There are very few YouTubers who make videos to build a community or connect to a community. YouTubers are on there for money, and there's really no alternative that can both host the videos and pay out big cheques to content creators.
@duncesplayed@kalleboo tbh most of YTs I know either run sponsor ads, or have Patreon/paid for community. It is already slowly moving away from ads system in YT, which simply does not work.
Well, I don't think it will STB, but YouTube needs a FOSS equivalent that has the same capabilities sans ads. But, that's $$$$ infrastructure so I don't know if that will ever come.
BUT, I really hope that by the time Discord pisses off its users, that matrix or another federated equivalent will have figured out the UI/UX to capture a large chunk of those users. I used to live in IRC, but discord finally killed it. And I hate using proprietary software for so much chat.
God I hope so. Discord works fine as a voice chat and groupchat for games. But it's insane to me that people use it as a replacement for message boards or websites and hosting files. It isnt indexed so you cant google it and a groupchat is a terrible format for this. Even as reddit dies you have some people acting like a glorified group chat is a good alternative. As an addition and supplement to a message board or website community sure this is how it's always been even in the old days there were boards with an active IRC chat. As the replacement? Awful.
I would love for something to replace YouTube, especially something in the Fediverse, but video unfortunately has much higher storage and bandwidth requirements, so it's hard to imagine that not being totally cost prohibitive at high levels of traffic, even if it's split across so many different servers. I'd love to be wrong on that, though.
It'll be hard to get people to not only detach from something they're accustomed to, but also then attach to something unfamiliar.
I tried and am trying again with Mastodon, but a lack of users I wish to follow, a more confusing premise at times, and just overall more enjoyment overall (if that) with twitter as a platform makes it a challenge.
Lemmy however has checked all the boxes. It literally feels exactly like Reddit, and honestly like a fresh start to avoid the various decisions both Reddit admins and the community itself made along the way. I'm hoping more for the latter experience than forming when diving into the fediverse, but my above statement is most likely applicable for a wide sample of people out there.
I'm thinking Twitch. Discord, imo, is just starting down the bad path but it still does what it's supposed to do very well. Twitch, however, wants to enforce rules on content creators that might lead to them leaving entirely.
One can only hope so. I hope matrix gets a solid push when the chat gatekeepers have to open up because of EU regulation. If they can get invovled in the planned standards an implement them fast enough into matrix that might be a gamechanger.
I hear that YouTube and Twitch are in the process of enshittifying, so probably them. Would also like to see Discord get replaced by something like Matrix, but I think the UX isn't ready for that yet. On the plus side, the Matrix protocol supports bridging to other chat platforms, so that's cool.
Matrix's client UX is improving a lot, there is the Cinny client that mirrors Discord's layout perfectly. The issue with Matrix is its protocol, which faces scaling issues because each instance joining the network is supposed to replicate the entire Matrix network, which will make it difficult for small hobbyists to add instances without crumbling under the load when the network gets too big. There is another Discord-like alternative, Revolt which is self-hostable and uses its own protocol but doesn't have federation yet.
This is not true. Data will only be sent to your homeserver if a user on your homeserver joins a room on another server. And only the data for that room is sent, not the whole network. The room data only contains all state changes, and a small amount of recent messages. The amount of state changes is the biggest problem.
Matrix protocol does have a giant problem regarding spam joins though, which make a complete instance basically unusable. Last time I talked with people related to the protocol they didn't want to or know how to fix it, because the need to verify all room state changes.
While I agree that Discord should be the next to go, the problem I see is that there still aren't enough solid alternatives for the layman. I doubt that anyone outside the nerd/tinkerer is setting up a Matrix server. If there are other alternative chat platforms that are decentralized, open-source, and easy to setup and maintain I'd love to know more about them. As of now though, I'm only aware of Matrix and I'm almost certain I couldn't convince my non-tech-savvy friends to setup an instance.
Yeah probably, someone said you can host your own servers and maybe connect to others so I kinda jumped to the comparison. Just wanted to bring it up since it's open source
With people learning about Fediverse, I'm guessing Instagram. Why? Because IG has become overwhelmed with influencers and TikTok-like junk. The initial wave of people into Pixelfed will be techies that want a break from that scene. Their friends will hear about it. The friends that just want to have an IG-like experience to share their pictures with friends while avoiding all the rest of the noise will slowly transfer over. Once they hit the critical mass, the switch will happen. This will take at least another year or two.
I think there's a missing link in your forecast: what will make people who are not techies, who currently use IG, stop using it, leaving behind their contacts at IG? They aren't going to want to use two platforms, so it'll have to be a clean break. I don't think hearing about alternatives from techies is going to do it, IMO. It's how a lot of people keep in contact.
Network effect is really sticky. Most of the users of the internet were once techie folk. Now it's everyone.
that's a good point. people will want to leave IG to get away from the influencing culture of IG once they hear about a cleaner alternative that they can use to block out the influencing. that's going to be the slowest part. I'm likening it to how people left MySpace for FB to get away from the madness that was MYSpace for the less cluttered and more exclusive scene that was FB.
another aspect to this that I didn't mention is the integration with the Fediverse that will be popularized by the Reddit migration. once people see that their Lemmy, kbin, Mastodon, and Pixelfed can be accessed from a common location using a common language, they will see it as simpler, more integrated, and with more control over their social media with a rejection of corporate BS. this depends on how well the Fediverse integrates the different media and advances in phone apps.
additionally, I've ran the models (X^2, regression [y^2 = ax^2 + b^2], confirmatory factor analysis, global environmental multiscale, and Tyra Banks). the stats show a range of 5%-75% probability with a ±10% error depending on how I define the degrees of Farenheit (mostly went with radian degrees👌).
I always hated that Discord seemingly just replaced IRC and then they started replacing actual forums, Discord is absolutely horrible as a forum replacement.
But, I think in the near term that Twitch is looking bad, they introduced changes and then "walked them back" but that walk back didn't actually see them change their terms of service where the changes were still in effect. I fully expect them to quietly try to keep the rules and selectively enforce it until they think everything has blown over.
Seriously, I can understand going to Discord over IRC. I don't LIKE it, I think it's a terrible idea, but at least the use case is the same & I get why the 'ease of use' would get the young pups who don't "get" technology that isn't nativly rubbing on their phones.
But I can't comprehend using Discord instead of a forum, it's absolutely shitty & totally unsearchable.
Stream/Video is a beast to host though. How well can a fediverse/foss type solution support that kind of thing? Right now it seems like existing closed source companies are looking to gain market share. They were already doing that by trying to pay creators or getting banned creators.
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