Incorrect title, he has declared they’re marching (or planning to) march against Shoigu and oust him from the MoD.
In his statement he specifically states that he thinks the MoD has also misled the President. So his argument is that he is he’s trying to help Russia and Putin by getting rid of Shoigu.
FSB has declared a criminal investigation on charges of inciting a coup, and Rosguardia has been put on high alert. Medvedev has stated “all necessary precaution measures have started”.
It’s honestly so hard to tell what’s happening. Is Prigozin acting in cahoots with Putin to solidify power? Is he being helped by the CIA to institute a coup? Is he just gone nutters and going rogue? Is this just another extreme version of political theatre from him? There are suggestions he’s already started walking back some of the comments. Time will tell.
I have a hard time believing this, but if Wagner/Prigozhin goes rouge, at the moment when Ukraine have started their counteroffensive, that could have massive consequences for Russia. I wonder whether Ukraine would allow them to "go free" if they decide to switch sides en masse?
I meant what I said! If Prigozhin goes rouge his new appearance could woo the people and benefit him massively in the Russian presidential election, potentially causing a major upset and leading to the end of Putins rain.
Well, in that case I don't understand what you said. I mean, red is a nice color to wear if you dare to wear it, but I don't know how it could help Prigozhin in any way.
red is a nice color to wear if you dare to wear it
Exactly!
his new appearance could woo the people and benefit him massively in the Russian presidential election, potentially causing a major upset and leading to the end of Putins rain.
Even if Wagner just leaves and takes it's troops back to Africa, it will be a major loss for Russia.
There's no way Ukraine would ever let them switch sides though. Maybe the Free Russia Legion would work with them to carve out some territory for themselves in Russia, but the only think Ukraine would allow them to do is surrender for jail time.
Rosguardia has hundreds of thousands of internal soldiers. Assuming their allegiance is to the MoD (and at this point there is no way of knowing), I don’t see how Prigozhin could successfully stage the ousting.
If he was really trying to help the Ukrainians the most effective decision would probably be to attack the rear of the Russian lines to allow Ukrainian forces to come through. Wagner units have been off the front for about a month so I don’t think it really has any effect on Ukraines ability to break through the lines without the above scenario happening, but nothing Prigozhin has said leads me to think he’d help Ukraine, as he also stated he plans to return to the Frontlines to help defend the motherland against the west after ousting Shoigu.
I definitely think Prigozhins "easiest" way to power would be to help the Ukrainians break through and encircle a large portion of the Russian army.
Rosguardia has hundreds of thousands of internal soldiers.
I may be very wrong, but I think that such a large proportion of the Russian armed forces and material are in Ukraine now, that if they were to be encircled and lose decisively (not that I think this is immediately likely) the Rosguardia would have a hard time. It doesn't help to have hundreds of thousands of soldiers if you don't have any heavy equipment, communication systems or command structure. Additionally, Prigozhin appears to be in good favour among quite a few Russians, so I wouldn't bet against some of them joining him if he were to try something.
But given what you're saying, the above seems like a pipe dream ^but-I-want-to-dream-that-this-can-end-suddenly-and-quickly.^
I don’t know if it’s that simple a calculation. The article states that Wagner commands upwards of 50,000 troops that have just spent months getting battle hardened. Plus who can say how well equipped the internal troops are when everything has been shipped to the front.
Personally though I think Prigozhim is acting on Purtin’s orders and has created a nice scapegoat for him in the leadership of the Russian military.
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