Can you point me towards me a brief overview of Rostov, whose territory it's in, and its strategic importance? I've mostly been following the geopolitics of the war and not the actual fronts/troop movements except at a very very high level.
Rostov is In Russia a border city Rostov is east of Mariupol Ukraine. it being a border city strategically it's logistic point, it's very far from the front, a disruption here could potentially assist Ukraine in wearing down points at the front this may sow chaos in Russian command,break morale.
So I wish I could, maybe ISW ? I’ve been reading their daily updates for a year now, and just absorbed a lot. Dmitri@ war translated is good. There are also some good substacks.
My wild speculation is that Prigozhin marches in with token resistance, arrests Shoigu and reveals to Putin the deceit from the MoD, before taking his place at Putin's side. He's avoided being critical of Putin and says lies from the MoD are the reason for the war. Shoigu is the scapegoat.
I think the biggest gain is simply that this guy and likely any other Putin replacement would end the war in Ukraine, because they know it's a waste of lives, money, and reputation. It's hard to be worse than Putin at this point. And heck, even with Putin still on the "throne", it could give Putin the excuse his cowardly ass needs to back out of the war.
I wonder how much of this stems from that announcement a few weeks back that Wagner was going to be subordinated to the MoD? I haven't heard anything about it since it was announced (since my main source of information was that front page of the internet which just descended into its own civil war...) From vague recollection, Prigozhin said he was refusing to sign any contracts formalising such arrangements but Putin was backing the defence minister Shoigu on this one, to presumably try and rein in Wagner a bit and keep the game of musical chairs going as Putin's underlings all vied for influence without anyone being the clear heir apparent.
Looks like it may have backfired spectacularly if so, because Prigozhin had to have known it would have meant his end if he'd accepted Shoigu's control, and, as Sun-Tzu warns, a cornered animal (or army) with no way out will fight to the death.
This is crazy. Perhaps a moment of self reflection? I am very interested to see where this goes. Somethings gotta give. I'd feel, in my bones, that I was dying for nothing, if I was a Russian soldier. Then I look around and realize everyone feels the same and we have guns and military equipment. Maybe it'll spark something larger.
Wagner are literally neo-nazi terrorists who, until somewhat recently, were officially a PMC group for the purposes of doing the shit so heinous that even putin wanted plausible deniability. Think Blackwater except the crimes against humanity were the point rather than a fun side effect.
Prigozhin was likely on his way to the chopping block as he was potentially a political rival and basically was having his army taken away. So he and his army are now engaging in a coup.
Think of this less as the russian army "having enough" and more as a violent uprising by a warlord... against a fascist.
I realize this guy is just another warlord, trying to save his own ass, but the people around him and below him are just people who don't want to die, but need some kind of reassurance, even if its based on a bad person doing self serving things, sometimes that's all it takes in a situation that sucks, to tip a domino. One potential opening.
I'm not really sure how to unromanticize life tbh. We're talking about based human nature here. Whether you like to admit it or not, is largely dictated by emotions. It could go any number of ways.
Again, do some research on Wagner. They are capital E Evil with a few Heil Hitlers thrown in for good measure.
This isn't like the Azov Battalion where there were a LOT of evil mother fuckers but there had been a slow effort to get rid of them in the years leading up to the war. Wagner cultivates that evil white supremacist mindset and Russia/Putin specifically created them to engage in horrific crimes.
Again, think of this less as heroic soldiers having enough. Think of it more as a neo nazi and his goons are pretty much the only well equipped soldiers in the entire country and the national guard are just keeping their heads down... to avoid having them crushed with a sledgehammer in a ritualistic execution.
I am downright GIDDY that putin is probably going to be dead within the next week or two. Few people on this planet have earned the kind of vile torture that Wagner is known for, but Putin is probably one of them. I am downright terrified that Prigozhin and his neonazi fucks are going to be a nuclear power.
Because yes. This is "human nature". But once you get past the movies, you rapidly learn that there are very few armed uprisings that were a long term good. And the ones that were tend to be more about selling a dispute between two claimants to a throne where the victor CLEARLY had the will of the people behind them. Because dying cold and alone in a trench without even a blanket is hell. But the people who tend to find ways to weaponize that resentment into a coup? They are almost never who you want to have on the throne.
To riff on Dril a bit: By no means whatsoever do you need to hand it to Wagner.
Oh I agree completely, anyone in a position of power in that situation, is highly likely to be unfit for the job, by my standards. I'm not a nazi, this whole thing is fkd up, and I sure as hell don't want one evil replaced with another flavor of evil. Tbh, all I know is that i feel for the people stuck in the meat grinder, and I personally do not know how to make sweeping changes to how we treat eachother, so I can only hope for extremely incremental changes. I'm not saying this is one I want, but, what I want is easily impossible to really attain, and I'm not sure what exactly the appropriate action is. The people I'd want to take charge, frankly, will never be in that position. They're all too busy trying to survive.
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