Germany entered a recession last year because the average worker needed 20 sick days.
Pitting public health against economic health is fundamentally wrong and will lead to the utter destruction of both.
#Stocks are surging, unemployment is near historic lows and the nation appears to have avoided a predicted #recession. Yet Trump claimed on Monday that the economy is “fragile” and running on “fumes” as he warned of a crash.
“And when there’s a crash, I hope it’s gonna be during this next 12 months,
Former House Speaker #Pelosi (D-Calif.) called Trump "grotesque" for his comments.
If you are fortunate to read this then you will understand.
The United States was supposed to be suffering a massive economic #recession in 2023 that never happened for reasons I'll explain after #election2024#2024Election
#russia#iran and #china were certain of this misfortune but when they observed their error and miscalculated #hubris , became quite upset. #terrorism
Anyone who is worrying whether or not we are in (or will be in) a #recession this year & into 2024 is missing the larger picture....
#economic activity in the UK has largely stagnated, with the data oscillating around figures of less than 1% GDP growth.
leaving aside issues of the utility of GDP as a measure & if growth is what we need (often discussed in my timeline), the key thing is the UK's economy is in a parlous state after over a decade of government by the rentier class.
Oh, I see the #ONS has revised down its estimate for GDP growth in Q2, so alongside the decline in Q3, we are now in a technical #recession.... which is exactly what's the BoE want, so perhaps will now reduce #interestrates, now that the recession has started.... and given the lag of effect of interest rates changes we can expect 2024 to be mostly recession - which will serve those pesky #workers right for asking for pay rises!
Given that changes in #interestrates policy take around 12 months to work their way through the system, and that the BoE seems keen to force a #recession and/or #deflation to 'discipline' #workers trying to bring their real wages back to level now not seen for over a decade... the Q. is:
How long is the recession they are engineering going to last?
You'll be able to tell by when they start to change policy; if they wait until the recession has actually started then they want it to last a year
After 2yrs of relentless pressure over everything from sky-high #inflation to a looming #recession, the head of the #FederalReserve was asked this month what he does for fun.
“For me, a big, big party — & I mean, this is really as fun as it gets — is a really good inflation report,” #JeromePowell said…. He flashed a smile & laughed.
For an ofcl who typically sticks to a tight script, the quip was downright jubilant. But it also reflected a subtle mood shift from the #CentralBank …
When #CentralBanks use #interestrates as their only 'weapon' against #inflation the delay of effect can be between 12-18 months... so we are currently impacted by the BoE policy of around a year ago, while today's interest rates will feed through the economic environment at the end of 2024.
So the danger is (always) the interest rates policy may 'overshoot': on the way up leaving inflation running too high, but also on the way down running the risk of #recession...
With the prospect (already) of a pre-Christmas slow down in consumption (and potential #recession in the new year), #manufacturers are now facing a #supplychain crisis....
not only is the #SuezCanal already at risk due to attacks on shipping approaching the canal ('encouraging' some shippers to take longer, more expensive & slower routes), now the #panamacanal has been hit be a drought that is severely constraining its capacity.
There's going to be a lot more friction in global supply chains
Most economists put odds of recession at 50% or less: NABE
A report Tuesday of declining job vacancies bolstered optimism that the labor market will cool without pushing up unemployment much beyond the 3.9% level in October.