@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

BM_Visser

@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy

Professor Energy Transition & Networks Hanze University Groningen, The Netherlands.
Manager Strategy Gasunie
Fellow Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP).
Blogs (in Dutch) on www.Energiepodium.nl.
Facts matter!

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

isotopp, to random German
@isotopp@chaos.social avatar

@BM_Visser

I wonder: In many energy graphs, we see a lowered total energy demand in the recent years.

This is often attributed to businesses fleeing the country due to higher energy prices (mostly by pro-fossil propaganda).

I believe that there is unaccounted local solar consumption that is consumed when it is produced where it is produced and never shows up in any stats, leading to lowered demand during peak solar hours.

Is there any evidence or accounting for this?

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@isotopp
Energy (electricity) demand reported includes self consumption of locally produced solar power.

Power demand is usually calculated as the sum of the total national power production + import - export.

Production of solar PV is estimated using the installed solar capacity and solar radiation, with a model which is similar to the one in Energiepowek.nl.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Since 2004, the fraction of renewable energy in EU27 has increased by about 0,8% percentagepoints per year.

I estimate that the annual increase will be larger in 2023 and 2024. This increase is mainly due to the very high energy prices and hence, lower final energy demand, power and gas, and hence, the shrinkage of industrial production.

Nevertheless, it will require significant more efforts to get to 42,5% renewables in the EU27 energy mix in 2030, as agreed in the Green Deal. Realistic?

ArjanBos, to random
@ArjanBos@mastodon.social avatar

@BM_Visser @remcodb Are you familiar with this research? “even in the current market, the analysis strongly suggests that, in energy terms, renewable sources are already producing more energy per unit of energy used to produce them than fossil fuels.” https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/we-get-more-useful-energy-out-of-renewables-than-fossil-fuels/

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@ArjanBos @remcodb

Unfortunately, this type of research entirely depends on the scope limitations and the assumptions made. For instance, does it take into scope that solar cells have say 20% efficiency or does it start with the output of solar cells? Etc...
What counts, in the end, for most citizens, are costs, not efficiency. Fortunately, costs of an energy system entirely based on renewable energy production are shrinking. But way have still a way to go.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In 2024, until now, most EU-countries have had 4-5% hours with negative day ahead power prices.

Since the growth of solar and wind occurs at a much faster rate than the growth of electricity consumption*, it may be expected that the amount of such hours will increase significantly in coming years.

*since 2010, EU electricity demand is stable, which implies that increase in consumption (e.g. ICT) is compensated by savings, e.g. due to the EU-ecodesign measures.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Last week, the Netherlands had, on average 4 hours per day with a negative day-ahead power price.

Until now, the Netherlands had 155 of such hours this year, compared to 65 last year in the same period, and 31 in 2022. A significant increase. We see this in most European countries.

The expansion of solar and wind occurs much quicker than the increase of power demand. Consequently, negative and near-zero power prices, with significant curtailment of solar and wind, will become more common.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

The price of copper has reached a record level.

On the one hand, this is a sign that energy transition is gaining momentum as wind and solar require significant amounts of copper.

On the other hand, it indicates that mining capacity is not increasing sufficently and moreover, it implies that the energy transition will become more costly.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

On Sunday 12 May, in the Netherlands, I estimate that 65% of all onshore wind production had to be curtailed.
Also large curtailments will have taken place for large scale solar and offshore wind.

Note: real time onshore wind data in ENTSO-E are from wind parks connected to the TSO network. These are mainly large wind parks.
Since most other wind parks in the NL are operated, on behalve of the owners, by companies with 24/7 dealing rooms, I expect a similar behavior for those parks.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@JakeNL
It was a matter of overloading.

In the afternoon, according to Energieopwek, there was potentially 24 GW power production by solar and wind alone, while the market could only absorb half of it.
The fact that zero and even negative prices occurred, showed as well that there was considerable overloading.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Tomorrow day-time, everywhere in Europe negative power prices.

Various European countries have similar amounts of hours of such prices so far this year. An exception is Greece.

Tomorrow from 12 AM to 3 PM, very low prices, below -100 €/MWh occur in a large area comprising the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium up to Switzerland, Austria and Hungary.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Tomorrow afternoon, May 11th, electricity is for free at the wholesale level in a region from Spain to Finland.

Exceptions are UK and Poland. But since these countries invest in a significant expansion of solar and wind as well, they will follow soon.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

My last blog (in Dutch) on www.energiepodium.nl (free). "Learn from the neighbors".

On novel network tarrifs for households, to stimulate them to use the scarce, expensive, capacity with care.

https://www.energiepodium.nl/artikel/leren-van-de-buren

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@janvlug
Prima suggestie!

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In 2024, so far, there have been 85 hours with wholesale power prices in the whole ARRRA region (DE/BE/NL) below 1 €/MWh, indicating that solar and wind in these hours outpace electricity demand.

Since in the coming years, solar and wind will grow much faster than electricity demand years, an increase of such hours may be expected.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@FabianLaasch
It is not a big problem in my view. One of the consequences is that, during these hours, efficiency hardly matters, while network capacity does.

BM_Visser, (edited ) to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

While some EU-countries treat 'energy' as a 'basic need' and apply the low VAT rate, others treat energy as a 'luxury good' and apply the high VAT rate.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@bolzano
No, the mentioned reduction deals with the energy taxes which come on top of the 21% VAT and, by the way, would be by far the highest in Europe without the reduction mentioned.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Significant variations in network costs for households (in €ct/kWh) among West-European countries.
Does anybody know a study with an explenation?

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@jap

Dit zijn de tarieven (kosten) voor het gebruik van de energienetwerken!

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In April 2024, the Netherlands, experienced on almost all days for some hours a more than 100% contribution of solar and wind to the national power demand.

Overproduction of solar and wind electricity was either exported, up to 50% of national demand, or had to be curtailed for technical or commercial reasons.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Until today, the Netherlands has had 105 hours with negative power prices this year.

Such prices occur when power production by solar and wind in the Netherlands exceeds national demand + net exports.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In the last 12 months, the average percentage of renewables in the Dutch electricity demand was 52%.

Growth mainly due to a significant increase of offshore wind and solarPV capacity.

Reduction in biomass is caused by the reduced utilisation of Dutch coal-fired power stations and hence, there was less co-firing of biomass.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@adnan
This is based on national consumption.
The Netherlands has a 5-10% net export of electricity produced. Hence, the percentage based on production would be 5-10% less.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Tomorrow May 1st, a national Holiday in many European countries.
As a 'bonus', electricity is free* between about 10 AM and 5 PM. Also in Spain (not on the map) and even in Poland.

*excluding taxes and not for those, who have fixed rates..

  • All
  • Subscribed
  • Moderated
  • Favorites
  • •
  • provamag3
  • cisconetworking
  • DreamBathrooms
  • mdbf
  • tacticalgear
  • ngwrru68w68
  • magazineikmin
  • thenastyranch
  • InstantRegret
  • Youngstown
  • slotface
  • everett
  • kavyap
  • cubers
  • JUstTest
  • Durango
  • ethstaker
  • GTA5RPClips
  • osvaldo12
  • khanakhh
  • rosin
  • normalnudes
  • tester
  • megavids
  • Leos
  • modclub
  • anitta
  • lostlight
  • All magazines
    •