SS: In this article, the author argues for US and western policy to move more aggressively towards decoupling from China. The author argues that simply derisking and onshoring/friend shoring sensitive industries is not enough. Continuing to entangle with Chinese markets while they remain illiberal will only reduce the economic potential of the US and help prop up an authoritarian rival. Unless the US makes a much more thorough break it risks exposing its investors and citizens to economic backlash from an authoritarian regime seeking to upend its place in the world. It also discourages the emergence of a truly liberal and democratic economy in China.
in fairness, these rules are being skirted within the EU constantly. Bypassing checks and balances and overall centralization of power seems to be a theme for many nations. Admitting Turkey without both fixing the EU's internal rules/structure to better allow for reform and compliance to values as well as Turkey getting in line with EU standards on issues like human rights, judicial independence, freedom of expression, etc.
I'm not sure if it will be in my life but I expect all these issues to eventually be rectified and integration to happen.
The US hasn't really responded to many of these local currency deals, even the China-Saudi yuan deal which is surprising. I'm not sure if it is apathy since the US is now a net energy exporter or that that "petro-dollar" is a concept the US is moving away from for the future. I definitely see it as part of the new economic cold-war that is brewing. Cutting losses and consolidating nations into friendly trade blocs.
Submission Statement: This in-depth Youtube documentary goes into the details of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for May 16th - 31st. It highlights key areas where Russia and Ukraine are advancing and goes over some of the various geopolitical events unfolding around the war, such as the provisions for F-16 Fighter jets to Ukraine, additional military support from the west, Hungary's blockade of EU aid, and discussion regarding the Ukrainian Counteroffensive.
What's really telling is how Western governments have changed their tune on Ukrainian offenses/strikes into Russia. It wasn't too long ago that there were major and publicly announced preconditions associated with giving weapons to Ukraine on how they would be used to engage Russian forces.
As this war progresses I think US support will have another impact on the global stage. I imagine many nations around the world will see how quickly the US is able to reactivate armor and old fighters and get them into Ukraine's hands now that a lot of the infrastructure is being set up. It's up to the US to prove that this service would be provided to any nation committed to democratic ideals.
SS: In response to an ultimatum by the The Economic Community of West African States (ecowas) that a military intervention would occur if the recent military coup was not overturned, other nations Mali and Burkina Faso vowed to step in to defend Niger in the event of a military intervention. These Sahel nations also faced military coups against nominally democratic incumbents. Ecowas nations have tried to show themselves as democratic bastions and have intervened in coups int he region before. By challenging the group, these autocratic nations are challenging the aspirations and legitimacy of their ability to affect change int the region. As more nations fall to coups and are plagued by extremism, regional powers and foreign interests may determine the long term stability of the region.
SS: Russian has pulled out of the deal to ship Ukrainian grain citing issues with getting restrictions on its own agricultural and fertiliser exports lifted. It is unclear if this move will drive further food insecurity in the global south however, as other nations have stepped up their own production and export of grains. Europe has also been a majority purchaser of Ukrainian grains which adds more credibility to the Russian argument that poor nations will not suffer as much from halting Ukrainian grain shipments. How this plays out and how it effects global perception of Russia's war in Ukraine is yet to be seen.
SS: Russian and Chinese forces are conducting joint military operations in the Sea of Japan. These types of drills aren't uncommon, but show a commitment to increasing interoperability and cooperation with one another. It is unlikely that Russia and China will directly cooperate with one another in the event of conflict with an outside power, but strategic planning and synchronizing logistics may help each other in their respective conflicts.
SS: As geopolitical polarization increases, Iran and Russian cooperation also improves. Expanding their activities outside if Caspian weapons trading, Iran and Russia seek to pressure the US out if the Levant.
SS: Despite recent progress in bilateral relations, there is still a long way forward for the US in diminishing Russian influence over India. For the US weaning India off Russian weapons reduces Russian influence over India while also promoting interoperability with Western forces in the region. India is recieved more favorably compared to Pakistan and shares many of Washington's concerns over China's recent expansionist tendencies. For India, Washington may prove to be a more reliable supplier and a supplier of arms that are more effective compared to their Russian counterparts. This is especially noted after Russia's performance in its war against Ukraine and subsequent supply chain melt down that has left India struggling to catch up with routine shipments.
SS: In recent weeks, delays between the EU foreign ministry and China have been noted during to various external factors. This opinion piece notes that the facade of politeness between diplomatic exchanges is overshadowed by a fundamental disagreement between strategic views. China supports Russia and promotes a Russian narrative over the cause of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, European nations support the US in its tech trade war with China and against China in the Taiwan dispute. While these nations claim mutual interests in multiple geopolitical poles and independent strategies, they face an uncertain future as major policies are at odds.
SS: In a new move of shifting goal posts, Turkish president Erdogan has linked Swedish accession with renewed talks if Turkish EU membership. This is expected to be aimed at domestic audiences as Sweden is already covered by mutual defense treaties with neighbors and is closely aligned with NATO members. It is not expected to integrate Turkey into the EU anytime soon as it would disturb the balance of power within the alliance. Rapid EU expansion resulting in a debt crisis and political instability within the Union have also made members more wary of bringing in new members without heavy vetting.
SS: In an op-ed written for The Guardian, Germany's foreign minister admits that her country failed to heed warnings about the threats from an autocratic Russia. She also talks about the failure of “chequebook diplomacy”, which was based on the hope that economic interaction would lead Russia to a democratic path. However, she notes, Putin's Russia will remain a threat to peace and security in the continent for the foreseeable future. And security must be organised 'against' Putin's Russia, and not 'with' it.
SS: Different opinions and narratives are shared at the 2023 SCO meeting in India. As each party speaks about their goals and views on global affairs, the security group admits Iran and announces plans to bring Belarus into the organization.
oh, this is gonna be good. I thought that food would be the first big bump into international trade, but it turns out it will start with semiconductors.
The golden age of trade is over. With global warming and the lack of resources looming we are entering a slow slide toward chaos. I can't find a better name. The less resources you will need the better you boat will float. (Europe has almost no mineral resources)
WHAT ARE THEY USED FOR?
The metals are used in high-speed computer chips and in the defence and renewable energy sectors. Germanium is key to fibre optic cables and also used in high-speed computer chips and plastics as well as infrared radiation. The metal and its oxides are used in military applications like night-vision devices as well as satellite imagery sensors. It is also important for low-carbon technologies such as solar cells.
Semiconductor wafers made with gallium arsenide rather than silicon can operate at higher frequencies and are heat resistant, according to U.S. company Wafer World.
They also produce less noise than silicon devices, especially at high operating frequencies, making them useful in radars and radio communication devices, satellites and LEDs, Wafer World says.
from what the article says, it will be a licensing requirement issued by the PRC. How they enforce it will be interesting. There is speculation that they might just block suppliers of components for US defense companies and exclude civillian applications. This would severely slow down GaAs and GaN radars, advanced components for ships, planes, thaad, etc. but wouldnt necessarily upend global supply chains for solar panels or the next iPhone.
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