Occam’s razor, tbh. The guards falling asleep and all that could still have been organized for him to follow through on his own plan. It’s one of those things we may never know, but iono, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
Yeah, and it’s just not surprising to me that a very rich pedophile kills himself on his second attempt right after getting his lawyers to take him off suicide watch
Prison workers are overworked, underpaid, and the vast majority of them don’t give two shits about the people they’re working with. They’re trying to get in, do their time, and get out just like 90% of other people working an hourly job.
The dude was a rich multimillionaire who peddled children to the rich and wealthy in a cell with nothing, with the expectation of being killed by others at every corner, both from inmates knowing he was a pedo and the rich trying to silence him.
There may have been some greased palms regarding giving him the ability to kill himself, but even that’s doubtful. Prison is an absolutely horrible, vile, shit hole for most everyone who steps foot on the property. The dude was seeing the grass greener on the other side through the loop of that noose.
After watching a YouTube video that detailed the situation and environment he was in (a horribly mismanaged overcrowded correctional facility), I think he did kill himself because he knew he was fucked and was going to live the rest of his life as far removed from the lifestyle he was accustomed to as possible. He had already tried to kill himself previously. The people watching him are among the staff that are over-worked and have to maintain order in an already overcrowded facility… yeah, there will be gaps in observing him.
However, regardless of whether he killed himself or not, the rich are always keeping their best interests first at the expense of others. The real crime is that they’re killing us, just much slower.
I’ve wondered if he wasn’t killed by some cabal of moneyed pedophiles, but was instead put in a situaution where he would just kill himself, thereby keeping their hands “clean”.
did someone in power get a note saying “this is likely to happen and here’s how to prevent it”, and it get burried.
That’s just how reality works.
If you followed up and dealt with every low probability event (and most events of interest are low probability and most every low probability event would get a note about it in a large, properly functional government), first, it would be impossible, and second, you’d end up doing more harm then good.
It shows up best in the medical field because who doesn’t want to catch a disease earlier? Right? And, no matter who pays for it, there is money in extra medical treatment (despite the harm that unnecessary medical treatment causes, and the fact that if you underscreen, you also cause problems, and those are more likely to embarrass you).
The jist is when you screen (like a mammogram or some political quant writing a note about their thoughts), there is some probability that the information is wrong.
A false positive is when you find that event/question/prediction/whatever A is true, but it is not in fact.
Then there’s false negative, when you find that A is false, but it is not. (Additionally, true positive and true negative)
When you screen for “rare” events (which includes a lot of things that we might not think of as rare, or rare enough, like breast cancer or potential criminals), a vast majority of the people that screen positive will be false positive. The lower probability the event, the higher the false positive rate. It doesn’t really matter much to the math what the false negative rate is.
This is extremely counter intuitive to people, even when you’ve been shown the extremely simple math, it takes a while to internalize.
This is just a trivial example of Baye’s rule.
It’s also why you’ll never be able to treat mass shootings as a mental health issue or predict crimes unless you’re willing to put a lot of innocent people in jail.
Right, but the point is, it may very well be that they were difficult to catch without going into harm on the other side (IE in say 9/11’s case having the bar set so high that they’d have grounded air traffic for 15 false positives before actually stopping the attack). Likewise say JFK or MLK’s assassinations, also probably infeasible, having to widen perimeter or advance security on quite a large distance from where they were traveling and speaking.
In epstiens case though, it seems like a high profile national news level criminal like himself. could have very easily been sent to a much better guarded prison, not taken off suicide watch etc… IE it seems like all the red flags were there that he would have killed himself if he could… and he was left in a situation where doing so was not difficult, and the cost of ensuring he didn’t kill himself would have been pretty low. It’s one dude that’s expected to stay in captivity, on a case that the whole world was watching. Not really that infeasible to have a 24/7 rotation that has one person dedicated to him at all times.
You have a “plausible” explanation of which there isn’t really any good evidence, and where the lack of evidence is a condition for the explanation.
In any case, you’re assuming that a “little” decision like supervising Epstein one on one was was made by an exceptional person (and presumably as intelligent as yourself), but the reality is that anyone accomplishing big things needs to delegate almost all of their work.
The people operating there were not viewing this event as too special. Most people who are that forward thinking are not in that position.
It seems really obvious that it was either extra judicial “justice” that the guards and other parties conspired on, or he was put into a witness protection program for giving up contacts and this fact is so critical to take down trafficking rings that everyone must play along with him being dead.
I can’t imagine other rational outcomes, he was high profile, and I absolutely expect Americans to think the vigilante justice is justifiable here, and lots of people would openly support that too. If he had compelling enough information on high profile individuals though, I can absolutely believe a deal was cut for his life, and his death faked.
I find it hard to believe that all of the guards meant to be watching over a high-profile prisoner on suicide watch just happened to disappear at the same time the multiple cameras also meant to be watching over him failed, and those both happened to coincide with the period he's said to have killed himself.
Either it's unimaginably high levels of incompetence and neglect, or somebody paid off a bunch of people. Considering it was rich pedos who wanted him dead, I don't find the latter unreasonable to believe
On the other hand, given that he had already been convicted of sexual abuse crimes and was contemplating spending the rest of his life in prison, there’s plenty of motivation to kill himself. It’s convenient for his pedo friends but there’s no incontrovertible evidence that anyone else was involved.
Wasn’t the prison like an overcrowded hellhole with way too little guards who didn’t do their job and shitload of broken cameras anyway?
Not saying it couldn’t have been a conspiracy but also learning about how shit that prison was makes one wonder if it could’ve just been that enabling him to do it
There is absolutely motivation for him to have done it, and I don't necessarily disbelieve he was involved in his own death.
I firmly believe that somebody at the very least greased the required palms to make sure nobody would be around, otherwise the fact that there is no footage and no witnesses to to the death of someone so high-profile and supposedly well guarded becomes almost unbelievable.
Yeah I think epstien killed himself, but I think its plausible someone enabled him to do that. But prisons are also grossly negligent and incompetent most of the time.
Never explain with malice what can equally well be explained by incompetence. I readily believe that the conditions in prison are awful, tech ain’t working and people are not doing their jobs. In any other case everybody would believe that too. I also believe that someone who’s sure he’ll die or spend a very long time in prison will prefer suicide. If I’ve learned one thing from rich, influential people it’s that they’re not exactly competent and couldn’t’ve pulled of a murder like this without people bragging about it left and right and leaving a massive paper trail. Sadly, the suicide is just the easier, more plausible explanation.
I am aware of Hanlon's razor, and usually do give benefit of doubt for exactly that reason. People are often just as, if not more stupid than they are malicious.
Having said that, it is just inconceivable to me that such grave incompetence would come about when the person in question is quite literally the golden ticket to apprehending the pedo-ring to end all pedo-rings.
I don't even necessarily disbelieve that he killed himself, the motives are there - but I do firmly believe that at the very least somebody greased palms to make sure there were no witnesses to prevent him taking his life when the opportunity arose. Given the amount if corruption amongst the police, that is certainly something I'm willing to believe
I don’t believe any of that. To the people who actually handled him he was just another inmate and that’s where the incompetence and apathy come in. There’s been a lot of inmate deaths in the news recently, which strengthens my belief. For many people Epstein was important, but I don’t think the grunts in prison gave a crap who he was.
Honestly it could be. Prisons aren’t really known for their safety and apparently it’s pretty common for cameras to simply not work and not get fixed for a long time.
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