Let’s do a quick thought experiment and say there was an actual legal framework for states to leave the union. How do Republicans think that would go? Under no circumstances would any major city in the south go along with leaving. Republicans states are far more purple than elections would suggest due to voter suppression, election fraud, and gerrymandering. So in reality the confederate areas would just be poor rural areas. Add in the fact that the US holds the keys to all the military equipment and weapons, the confederate areas would turn into a lawless hell scape over night. And without nuclear weapons and no international agreements for defense, I’m sure Mexico and Cuba would love to reclaim some of their lost territory.
I can go on. But the main reason these idiots keep bringing this up is to suggest violence into getting their way. It’s not even a viable option to even consider for them. The situation I made is a best case scenario for them to. If they tried to violently leave the union it would be couple million good old boys in trucks up against jets and tanks.
It’s also like they can’t even conceive the notion that most of the left and even a good few liberals are armed and train regularly and also live out in podunk.
Also remember that most red states are welfare states that need federal funding to just exist and on their own they would be broke and unable to provide basic needs like water and electricity .
Most of those states would collapse at the next hurricane that hits them. Florida had to declare a natural disaster just from 1 hurricane. Hurricane Katrina would leave Louisiana a third world country if not for federal government funds.
Would love to see your face when you consider the US military, which hasn’t won a real war in nearly 80 years, trying to occupy an area 10 times the size of Afghanistan. Please just ignore the 100 million gun-toting good old boys in trucks. I am sure they have no idea what guerilla warfare is and won’t protect their homes at all. Also, I’m sure none of that military will defect to protect their families.
Those 50 jets and 50 tanks will definitely end the conflict in the first hour.
Um what? Sorry but you are wrong on so many levels it’s concerning.
The Afghanistan forces we fought weren’t just a military force scratched together from random people off the street. They were at the time battle hardened men in their 30s and 40s, who’s leadership was trained and initially train by US advisors to fight off the USSR. They were a strong force fighting in home territory. (the same goes for the VietCong, and Once North Korea was supported by Standing army of China. The Korean War was lost.) so in reality the “good old boys” don’t have that advantage.
Secondly, those wars were lost in part due to Logistics. Fighting a war on the other side of the world is vastly different than one in your own back yard. Our opponents knew they just needed to wait us out. That would not happen in the south.
Next, the politics behind this wars was odious from the beginning. The vast majority of Americans didn’t support the wars over seas. A war against the south would be very popular in the north and mostly popular in urban areas in the south. Remember, the south wouldn’t be trying to leave to create another American Democracy. It would be for a Christian Nationalist Oligarchy. Their goal would be to reinstate slavery, women suffrage, and the genocide of LGBTQ+ people.
And finally, the military is politically “conservative” but in the economic way and not in the I think my small town with two black people is getting too ethnic way. There would be some military people that would defect, but far fewer than it would take to weaken the US military. Individuals with strong racist beliefs wash out very quickly and definitely are not in leadership! There’s a reason the military makes sure units are made up of people from all walks of life. Bigotry of any kind doesn’t make an effective fighting force.
Based on international law the states would maintain their current borders, that means the urban areas would come along for the ride (IF under an actual referendum the majority was to vote in favor of separation vs the non democratic exercise that is US elections)
The movement would probably see the creation of a new Union instead of just having a bunch of small new countries, so it would be rich enough to equip itself and create an army (and those voting in favor would probably jump on the occasion to defend their new country).
Separation doesn’t happen overnight, you go and fetch support from other countries so you’re not left without any allies or international recognition if the vote is in favor (France was ready to recognize Quebec if any of the two referendums had been in favor of independence).
You didn’t create a “best case scenario”, you just created a scenario that fits your opinion on the subject.
Disclaimer: Am not from the USA, would gladly see it getting split in multiple countries just like I would gladly see Canada split in multiple countries as I think in both cases it would stop some parts of the country from slowing down progress in other parts. Ex.: If Mississippi and its citizens want to live in a third world country so much then so be it, let the rest of the US move forward.
Sorry, but wrong on many points. If the conservative states were ever going to leave the Union it would have to be a quick transition as a longer process ensures that it won’t happen.
One: The US as a whole is far more homogeneous than European democracies. It’s not like in Europe where you can drive a few hours and find a whole different language and culture. Those asking for a separation are a extreme minority even within their states. Even with them being in power, the moment they actually move towards separation they literally will be murdered in a few days.
Two: during the slow negotiation for separation, red states would be responsible for their debts. States like Mississippi and Kentucky would have to back out of the separation because they’d become Haiti (economically) once the separation was complete.
Three: even if they peacefully negotiated with blue states, violence would break out in urban areas because red states wouldn’t be leaving to create their own American style for of democracy. It would be a Christan Nationalist oligarchy. They want this separation to reinstate slavery, women’s suffrage, and genicide of all LGBTQ+ individuals. This one is inevitable regardless how the separation goes. But a slow separation just gives those urban areas time to prepare for war.
Many states are in a much better position than many existing countries. Just because you refuse to consider it doesn’t make it non feasible.
You get to have your go at a thought experiment but others you disagree with don’t get to do the same?
Edit: Have yet to see someone explain why, for example, Iceland can be an independent country but it’s impossible to imagine Texas or the Carolinas being independent countries except for “People who don’t agree would revolt and the US would bomb the place!” Is it so hard to imagine a future where both sides agree that the union experiment didn’t work and it’s better to just split the country in chunks than continue with the status quo? Even for a thought experiment? Use that wonderful thing we call “imagination”.
Just looking at GDP/capita you can see that there are many red States that are above many European countries. The most popular example obviously is Texas at a secessionist movement has existed there for a very very long time… They have access to the ocean, a border with Mexico, resources… If they left it would probably lead to a movement where other states would want to join them to create the “United Republics of America” (to keep with the Republican theme)…
Just don’t have an extreme weather event or have any of their people with healthcare, who do you think pays to pick up the pieces? GDP/capita is not the final answer.
If you go by that logic then the USA in general can’t work as a country when compared with most other first world nations because all bad events always ends up being worse there than elsewhere. Guess the US should just reintegrate the British Empire then 🤷
You do realize that after a major weather or natural disaster event, the federal government comes in and does most of the help with money and resources. That’s the rest of the country helping. If Texas is the top one to do that, because they’re the only ones to have money, good luck to you. I say, go for it and bless your heart.
Texas is going purple, though. The many, many people there that live there and are Democrats, are they going to be cool with turning it into a totally shithole country?
Texas’ GDP is what it is because it’s part of the United States.
You’re so simple you think Texas could secede from the United States and the companies and industries that promote that GDP would stay there? If clueless was a person it’s be you.
Here’s the summary for you so you don’t have to struggle through all of the points made:
Bottom line is that, yes, Texas today is a financial powerhouse. But most of that is because Texas is part of the USA with a bunch of laws that let businesses get away with things they can’t get away with elsewhere. And in part, sure, like California, they have a lifestyle that attracts those with regional mobility, like engineers. But that’s still dependent on being part of the USA.
Going independent, Texas can’t use the rest of the USA to pay, one way or another, for their “pro-business” policies. They can’t fund half the cost of state government with Federal money. They can’t make a profit on the military — they have to figure out how to pay for one. And pretty much, just as other third world countries only get the low-end of production, there’s no way an Independent Texas with economic problems, rampant unemployment, crazies in office, etc. gets much interest from investors or big business in the USA or anywhere else.
There’s also a very large potential for domination by organized crime. The Mexican drug cartels would have little trouble moving into Texas and setting up shop. The USA as a whole can pool a very large amount of money to protect the southern border, because the northern border with Canada, our Western border on the Pacific, and our eastern border on the Atlantic (yeah, that’s me waving!) need relatively little protective effort. But the Republic of Texas would be a small country with some need to be concerned about every border, but particularly their border with Mexico.
Ain’t that the whole point of common law? There’s no legal framework -> go to court -> set the precedent -> there’s your framework
Separatists have to support each others, my nation’s separatist movement is older than anyone alive today. If some US states feel like they would be better off outside the union then good on them, the super nation experiment has run its course, it’s the same as empires of ages past and I don’t see anyone here defending the British Empire and being against Canada’s Confederation or saying that Haiti should still be a French colony… Weird how hard it is to apply equal standards to everyone 🤷
You’re a dumbass. Neither of the people in this thread you’re replying to asked you and your reply to the person who did is stupid. Texas’ GDP is what it is because it’s part of the United States.
You’re so simple you think Texas could secede from the United States and the companies and industries that promote that GDP would stay there? If clueless was a person it’s be you.
Hey everyone, this idiot I’m replying to can’t even read. Literally from the link:
And that also starts to impact the oil market. Yes, Texas has substantial oil reserves. They’re the leading producer of crude oil and natural gas in the USA, and the leading refinder of petroleum products. But of course, that’s all done by foreign companies in the Republic of Texas. Does Texas itself own any oil? Maybe, but I couldn’t find it. Do they Nationalize all petroleum production and send the oil companies running? That’s an annual $223 billion!
But here’s the other thing: all oil is currently bought and sold in Petrodollars. You buy oil in dollars, you sell oil in dollars. So the TexBux situation in Texas is a big problem… relative to other things in Texas, the cost of oil will go up. And this dynamic makes Republic of Texas less interesting for investors and oil companies than Texas, USA. Particularly if it’s unstable. Not that, after a century in the Middle East, they’re not strangers to how one gets the best of an unstable country. It’s just never good for that unstable country.
Other nations sell their petrol exploited by private businesses in USD, other nations are rich from that exploitation.
Texas doing the same thing though? Nah mate, impossible!
And no, “texbux” isn’t an issue as anyone who knows even a tiny bit about economy and politics would tell you, no country can prevent another from using their currency as theirs. That’s why eleven nations other than the USA have USD as their money and the number is even higher when counting countries that peg their currency to the USD’s value.
Same for the Euro which is legal tender in some places outside Europe.
Maybe you should go check if someone talked about that somewhere on Quora.
Just reinforcing that you can’t read, huh? Literally in the same link already provided:
An associated problem starts pretty quickly with the fiscal health of Texas. They will have to print their own money and swap out US dollars for their own money (Republic of Texas Dollars or Pesos or whatever they’d like to call them)… let’s call them TexBux (thanks Nicholi Valentin). If they don’t get their financial house in order from the get-go, that will see high inflation, where TexBux quickly fall against the USD and the MNX.
Maybe they just peg the TexBuck to the US Dollar? That’s possible: about 66 countries peg their currencies to the US Dollar. However, this is kind of magic trick conducted by their central bank — you can’t just make the claim that a TexBuck is the same as a Dollar. The central bank in such a country will buy up large numbers of US Treasury Notes. If TexBux fall next to the US Dollar, they sell Treasuries and buy TexBux, which both lowers the value of the US Dollar just a bit, and raises the value of the TexBuck.
Of course, this presumes that The Republic of Texas magically turns into a real country. Given the typical Texas leadership, that seems pretty unlikely. Yeah, they’d need some kind of central bank and mint to print money, but would they really have a monetary policy capable of pinning the TexBuck to the Dollar? Would that even be possible in the Texas economy — this is not The Bahamas we’re talking about here. There’s an awfully good chance that US imports get expensive, real fast.
I feel like logistically it would make Brexit look like the Velvet Revolution breakup of Czechoslovakia. Clusterfuck doesn’t even begin to describe it. We are sort of stuck with each other like a crabby old married couple that hates each other but they just don’t really have any options so they stick together barely speaking except saying fuck you to each other when they pass in the hallway.
Here in Colorado we have some idiots in at least one county who wants to secede from the state and become part of Wyoming. Personally, I would love that because those people have no idea what they’re asking for. Wyoming is one of the strictest states when it comes to cannabis, which would become illegal again. You can’t have it both ways where you keep your blue state protections and have your red state affiliation.
They would pull a north Korea, threatening to attack unless the US sends them food, money, fuel, cars, doctors and Desaster relief after the seasonal climate change Desasters…
It’s not around inside, they won’t get to keep military bases in their states if they seced, a second Confederacy would be occupied from the moment they began.
Add comment