BigWheelPowerBrakeSlider,

“Even if Trump is indicted in one of his legal battles, the polling suggests he could still defeat Biden.”

He’s already been indicted. 4 times.

jordanlund,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Pretty sure they meant “convicted”.

homesweethomeMrL,

pretty sure this is a garbage article

Fedizen,

Remember how Clinton’s emails were a fiasco to some of these people?

return2ozma,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

His supporters absolutely do not care what Democrats call him, what legal issues he’s involved in, etc. Democrats need to focus on policy and issues instead of solely attacking Trump. Democrats are not going to change Trump supporters minds. Stop trying to get a few Republicans to move over and start courting the actual Left.

BigWheelPowerBrakeSlider,

Wasn’t attempting to get anyone to change their mind. Simply pointing out the misstatement in the article.

return2ozma,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

I understood and was adding to it.

Deello,

Did you hear that Republicans? You guys got this election in the bag. Don’t bother going out to vote because you are guaranteed to win. All these polls keep coming out that Trump is in the lead so just let democracy do it’s thing.

homesweethomeMrL,

clickbait article, quoting the poll and the juiciest numbers they could dig out of them.

This survey was conducted online within the United States from February 21-22 among 2,022 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX

Well what the fuck does that mean, conducted online? On AOL? PornHub? Did you spam people to click a link for your website? Facebook? It was facebook wasn’t it. They don’t say. FFS was it Xitter? Unknown. Here’s the actual poll, which the bullshit article doesn’t even bother to link to.

There are SIXTY EIGHT questions. Okay, I want you to sit down and go to my facebook page and answer sixty eight questions. Who does that? I doubt anyone here. 2000 people is at least more than 1000 that they usually use to barf up a headline, but, again, that’s 0.00014% of the registered voters.

Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

Well, what were those numbers? It doesn’t say. Were they current, as in, 2022-or-more-recent breakdowns? Dunno. Could be from 2006? Maybe.

Garbage.

jordanlund,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

The fuck are they doing including Elon Musk in “political figures”?

ghostdoggtv,

Giving themselves away shh

simplejack,
@simplejack@lemmy.world avatar

The actual poll:

harvardharrispoll.com/…/HHP_Feb2024_KeyResults.pd…

It’s worth nothing that voters were also asked about 3rd party candidates, and Kennedy got a big chunk of the votes.

jordanlund,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

And they included Elon Musk as a “political figure”. WTF?

Iwasondigg,

These pollsters think they’re Lucy with a football and we’re all Charlie Brown. They were wrong in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, but surely this time they’ll be able to predict the election.

xmunk,

Pollsters generally try to be as accurate as possible but probability is probability and with rare events like this we can expect to see a lot of nonconforming results.

Iwasondigg,

Which is precisely why sensational headlines about a single poll is click bait I’m ignoring.

jordanlund, (edited )
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

As noted previously, national polls are useless because we don’t have national elections.

BUT - If you look at polling in the states that WILL matter… states that Biden won in 2020 and HAS to win in 2024:

Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/arizona/

Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/georgia/

Michigan - Tie to Trump +2/+3
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/michigan/

Nevada - Trump +6 to +10
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/nevada/

New Mexico - Biden +8 - Last poll is so old as to be useless though.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/new-mexico/

Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…/pennsylvania/

Wisconsin - Trump +3 to +4
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/wisconsin/

Plotted on a map, that’s a Trump win:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/c3442c73-7ea0-44a0-a706-1cd9aac9246f.jpeg

poprocks,

This is terrifying and needs to get more attention

jordanlund,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

That’s why I started following it and am continuing to follow it.

When I started, these states were 1/2 Biden 1/2 Trump, then they waffled back and forth, now they’re full Trump.

Granted, Biden hasn’t REALLY started campaigning, when Trump has been doing nothing but campaign… that might change when things get serious following the nominations in July and August.

echo,

We polled 75% Trump supporters and our poll shows Trump with a 6 point lead…

kryptonianCodeMonkey,

It gets sadder and sadder the older I get to see the state of America. The fact that this man ever even had a chance to be president, let alone after everything that has happened during and since his presidency, for him to still be the most popular option. I hate this.

Buffalox,

I thought Bush elected for a 2nd term had to be the all time low. Trump winning once, and competing twice for a 2nd term, together with the general insanity Republicans have devolved to, while maintaining about half the populous support, makes it pretty hard to be an optimist about USA.
I know Russia has a hand in this, but turning Republicans to a Putin/Russia loving party, should not have been possible.
Trump is a traitor to his country USA, how the fuck can he achieve nomination even once?

Seraph,
Seraph avatar

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

You can make a poll say whatever you want if you have no interest in the truth.

Heresy_generator,
Heresy_generator avatar

A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll

Mark Penn's fake poll.

philo,

Why is Trump raising a clenched fist in that picture? is he suddenly into Black Power? boy, his base of KKK supremacists and other assorted fruitbats are gonna have a stroke.

PoliticallyIncorrect,
@PoliticallyIncorrect@lemmy.world avatar

Bad propaganda it’s still propaganda…

Rhaedas,
Rhaedas avatar

Polls are polls, but just the fact that there is still any conversation at this point says a lot about the state of the country.

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

It really needs to be emphasized that polls this far out are basically meaningless. This far out, Romney was significantly outpolling Obama, and that was a blowout.

FlowVoid,

True, and it’s also important to note that these are all polls of registered voters, not likely voters. This means they are much less reliable.

givesomefucks,

There was an article a while ago about Biden being up 10 in NY and everyone celebrating…

You have to go back to 1988 and Walter Mondale to see a Dem win NY by less than 15. Biden won by 23 last time.

He’s not a good candidate, and if we’re really stuck with him, he needs to pull his head out of his ass.

Mastengwe,

I’ve seen it pointed out in others, and I’m seeing it here with you now, so I have to ask:

On a social media platform that clearly learns far left, you still manage to have an incredibly unpopular opinion. How is that even possible? Don’t think that maybe everyone has caught on to the fact that you are only critical of Biden’s administration and nothing else? Or could it be that everyone has caught on to your many alt accounts that seeming swarm one another to support your agenda?

Either way…

People caught on.

NataliePortland,
@NataliePortland@lemmy.ca avatar

What’s so bad about voicing an unpopular opinion?

ChocoboRocket,

The media is absolutely owned by the wealthy and their sway over the common person is astounding.

From what I’ve seen (uneducated, informal, observation of recent smaller elections) it seems Republicans are losing ground with their crazy shit from school board seats to municipal/state elections - but this could easily be confirmation bias as I’m not really tracking repuglican scores.

It seems like regardless of what polls say, general America is fed up with the crazy and partially showing up to vote (or less R participating if they can’t be assed to vote for a D) in less significant elections these days.

Hopefully it’s a blowout democratic win this year and they can finally close the door on this Christian nationalist, Nazi, Gilead, bullshit across as many levels in for gov’t as possible.

Eldritch,

We’ve been engineered to have a short memory and an even shorter attention span. People who would vote for Republicans doubly so. All Republicans have to do is fly silent for a month or two and most transgressions and fouls will be forgiven. Whereas Democrats are still being held responsible for things they didn’t do nearly 10 years ago.

Riccosuave,
@Riccosuave@lemmy.world avatar

The Hill has become complete fucking garbage.

return2ozma,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

They’re reporting on a poll. How is that trash?

banichan,
@banichan@lemmy.world avatar

The only poll that matters is the one everyone votes on.

Hazzia,

I get the reason people have been saying that on these poll posts, but I just want to point out that calculations for statistical significance exist specifically to avoid having to sample 90+ percent of a population to gain an adequite confidence level. Mind you a properly formatted survey will be designed to avoid over-representing certain subpopulations, which polls generally have about a 0% chance of doing, and for a poll that’s supposed to represent the whole nation the sample size is definitely way too damn small, so it’s still useless. But everyone implying that statistical probability can’t be calculated accurately without 100% sample data bugs me.

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