Update on what's going on with Rafah: the basic picture hasn't changed - Israel is mulling attacking it and may or may not do it, with different elements pushing in different directions (the IDF wants more war, Bibi doesn't want to make drastic changes).
The bigger issue is that Israeli actions in Gaza are constrained, above all, by Israel's own credibility gap. This constrains Israeli COIN even more than its own unwillingness to provide care to Gazans, especially if it's in the open.
