jrefior, to TeslaMotors
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

New EV rebate rules from the US Treasury Department

"consumers can choose to transfer their new clean vehicle credit of up to $7,500 and their previously owned clean vehicle credit of up to $4,000 to a car dealer starting January 1, 2024. This will effectively lower the vehicle’s purchase price by providing consumers with an upfront down payment"
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1783

jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

Historically, economic analysis has shown that the main problem with US EV tax credits thus far is (not that they raise prices, but) that they've mostly gone to wealthier people who would have bought an EV anyway, rather than increased adoption by making the vehicles accessible to low-wealth, moderate income Americans. I.e., they've made inequality worse.

See e.g.
https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/184-the-us-eu-fights-over-electric-vehicles-and-the-inflation-reduction-act/
https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/167-will-new-us-tax-credits-remake-electric-vehicle-supply-chains/
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-resource-111820-022834

jchyip, to random
@jchyip@mastodon.online avatar
TheEuropeanNetwork, to romania

Romania's demographic decline damages the economy.

With a population of 19 million, Romania is sinking into a worrying demographic decline. Over 5 million Romanians have left their homeland, searching for a better life in Western Europe.

Meanwhile, companies investing in the country struggle to recruit workers.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/08/28/romania-s-demographic-decline-is-crippling-its-economy_6111720_19.html

jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

@TheEuropeanNetwork
Recent related podcast episode on industrial policy in Romania:

"Romanians were facing two options – either to stay and try to navigate these stormy waters or take the path of the West now that Romanian borders were finally open"
https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/187-industrial-policy-and-the-rise-of-romanias-silicon-valley/

Industrial policy is extraordinarily difficult to get right, and is often a waste of money that could have been better spent elsewhere. This is a rare "success" story

adamjcook, to China

Truer words have yet to be spoken.

Just look at the failed (not literally, but certainly effectively) Manufacturing USA initiative - a constellation of research institutes first launched in 2012 to counter the Made In 2025 program.

To its credit, the Administration foresaw the Chinese economic threat to the West before most in Washington, but the actions taken were structurally ineffective.

https://www.apricitas.io/p/the-semiconductor-trade-war

adamjcook,

Other "tangential failures" like acquiescing Systems (LFP battery foundational knowledge) and, in the case of the government, , to -state controlled entities advanced the Made In China 2025 program by a decade or more virtually overnight.

Kuka's loss to China also substantially advanced the aircraft program - an open secret in many quarters of the Western industry that the US and German governments do not want to admit.

adamjcook,

After the effective failures of Manufacturing USA, which was originally intended to primarily life up small/medium business to fill more advanced verticals and roles through partnerships and R&D subsidies... the returned to (likely more safe, politically) "trickle down" thinking.

That is, based on crudely throwing money at big companies.

Let's see if this works, this time.

A massive missed opportunity either way.

jrefior, to Economics
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

With the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the US has chosen industrial policy as the way forward to fight climate change. Economists don’t like industrial policy in general. It’s very hard for governments to get it right. They often end up subsidizing the wrong businesses for political reasons. (E.g. representatives fight to get money for their own states, certain states are more important for presidential elections, etc.)

🧵 1/x

jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

A couple other notes about the IRA: the Biden administration likes to champion unions in its rhetoric, and that’s great. But a lot of the factories being built with IRA money, such as an electric battery plant in Tennessee, are going to states that have a track record of preventing unionization in their businesses.
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/06/23/one-region-is-especially-benefitting-from-white-house-ev-investment-push/

🧵 4/x

jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

But between Christmas and New Years, the Biden Administration quietly added a massive . You can get the credit if you lease a vehicle, and none of the other restrictions apply to leases. The industry was paying attention, and lease rates for electric vehicles have soared this year.
https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/184-the-us-eu-fights-over-electric-vehicles-and-the-inflation-reduction-act/

🧵 6/6

CrackedWindscreen, to random
@CrackedWindscreen@mastodon.online avatar

Every morning we wake to yet more experts on Chinese car companies that were, only a few short weeks ago mocking them and saying those of us that were warning of their moves were talking nonsense.

Welcome along, boys.

adamjcook,

@billheywood @CrackedWindscreen Bingo!

A massive failure in US ... and it ain't getting any better.

adamjcook, to Electricvehicles

This is a very interesting (and highly-interactive!) piece about ... and, yet, if we are going to discuss "underbellies" of then I think the following are almost always neglected:

  1. How heavier vehicles negatively impact roadway safety and increase non-exhaust emissions (dust and PM 2.5); and
  2. How heavier vehicles (and the proliferation of cars, in general) will drive a growth in negative concrete externalities - which are significant.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/electric-car-batteries-geography/

adamjcook,

Really, when I stand back at look at the last two so-called "infrastructure bills" pass in the , what I see is:

  • The "Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill" or really, as I like to call it, a "Highways Bill"; and
  • The "Inflation Reduction Act" or really, as I like to call it, a "Cars Bill".

I do like some of the aspects of the , but I do oppose tax credits or point-of-sale rebates.

A massive, missed opportunity in my opinion and one that will cost us dearly.

CrackedWindscreen, to random
@CrackedWindscreen@mastodon.online avatar

Interesting to see the Western media finally pick up on a matter we have been banging on about for some time, on the @motoringpodcast
We weren’t the first, as that was Sino Auto Insights, but we were the first in the UK.

https://unherd.com/thepost/chinese-cars-are-about-to-wreck-the-german-market/

adamjcook,

@CrackedWindscreen @motoringpodcast Oh man!

I am going to have to finally wrap up this article on my experiences with the US’s little-known, but heavily-funded industrial policy/research program called “Manufacturing USA”.

A program specifically designed to challenge .

I will look to do that this weekend.

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