JN.1 and JN.1.4 stil dominate the leaderboard, but scientists are especially watching a groiup of new mutations including JN.1.18, JN.1.13, KP.2, JN.1.16, and KQ.1.: https://ibb.co/6RvHcZR
Some of these are moving FAST despite the already-very-fast mutations on the landscape.
Wastewater
We've reached a level of SARS2 material in wastewater low enough to match previous years (2020, 2021.): https://ibb.co/DMyG0k4
CDC
Quite a lot of counties with new hospital admits, especially the Western half of the State. The Southwest corner by Greene Co and from Centre on over to Erie Co and Jefferson are HIGH on the newest chart.: https://ibb.co/m6KYR0Z
The Inpatient Beds chart looks good except for some increases in Lawrence and around Cameron Cos.: https://ibb.co/SPm1wJt
The ICU bed chart looks very good! Most counties are having decreases! However some increases up by Pike Co and significant increases in Franklin and Fulton Cos.:https://ibb.co/sKdK54P
Research
Tuberculosis after recovering from COVID-19 is becoming more common.: https://ibb.co/ZxZ7kHY
Reactivation of underlying pathogens is NOT NEW. We know this factually from the chicken pox/shingles pathogen.
Also, measles is known to reset the ENTIRE immune system and bring protection from everything down to zero, potentially leaving reactivation of underlying pathogens, which is by levels of magnitude more complex than the physical disability it can cause and makes it imperative that you VACCINATE YOUR KIDS.: https://ibb.co/cbFXrRw
Again: NONE of this is brand new, and COVID19 along with other known pathogens, seems to potentially weaken the immune system enough to reactivate underlying pathogens.
Non-SARS2 Pathogens
COVID and RSV thankfully have been downgraded on WastewaterSCAN to "Medium" and "low" respectively.: https://ibb.co/k2SpgLR
However, quite a number of pathogens are still ranking in the HIGH level: FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) and the gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still out there.
HMPV often presents with a rash and is related to RSV:
The prevention for all these respiratory diseses is the same!
Be conscious of crowds.
Wear a mask in places with low air filtration.
Keep the air clean!
Stay home if you are sick!
For norovirus and rotavirus, it's important to wash hands with soap and warm water for 20sec.
:ms_arrow_right: DO NOT depend on gloves and hand sanitizer to control Norovirus, the particles are very resistant to alcohol.
H5N1
Nothing above here has scientists sitting up at attention right now except one thing: H5N1 bird flu.
H5N1 has jumped to dairy cattle (after infecting numerous other species such as seals, fox, deer, etc.), has been found in cattle in TX, KS, MI, NM, and now Idaho.: https://ibb.co/1JgGY2v
Before now, almost all transmission was bird-to-other-species. "Cow-to-cow transmission cannot be ruled out" and will be a disaster for the food supply if not controlled.: https://ibb.co/mDKVZ7R
There is resistance amongst dairy farmers in the US and in Europe to get their cattle tested.
The absolute worst case scenario is if it "makes the leap" to pigs. That means, if genetically it mutates (like COVID-19 is doing) to be able to:
---Infect pigs.
---Gain capability of pig-to-pig transmission.
The genetic "leap" from bird to mammals was very large, and will also be the "leap" from cattle to pig.....but the "leap" from pigs and ferrets to humans after that will be really, really small.
This would be the same route the Spanish Flu took 106 years ago: Birds -> pigs -> humans.
It is...really not a good time to consume unpasteurized, raw dairy products.
:ms_arrow_right: I'm spending a lot of words on this because so far, this thing has a 50% kill rate**. That is, 1 out of every 2 people who contract H5N1 will die.
I don't know what else to say. We MUST push for thorough farm testing, biosecurity, and intense transmission research.
Stay safe, I hope you had a GREAT holiday, and don't forget to use some form of source control in your daily adventures! 💐
Texted my hairdresser to advise her I’ve had a cold all week but it’s not Covid (three negative tests in three days) and does she want to reschedule. She said yes because in the last three weeks she’s had influenza A, recovered, relapsed and is still on the way to recovery. Give people a choice before you risk their health. It’s the civilised thing to do. #covid#influenza#virus#choice#stayhomeifsick#wearafuckingmask
JN.1.11 has totally fizzled out (that's the difference between how it looks in a lab compared to actual infectivity) but there is a new variant that is being VERY closely scoured for by geneticists: JN.1.23 (that's JN One Dot Twenty-Three.)
This variant has an absolutely astounding ACE2Binding ability (which means it's easier to "stick" to lungs) + very good escape rate (which means it looks different than anything else before it and the body isn't sure how to react to it).: https://ibb.co/B45zX5B
It has already been found on 3 continents (South America/Brazil, North America/California, and Asia/India) and also in Canada/Alberta. it's now being tracked on Rajnarayanan's Tableau chart for the US.: https://ibb.co/xMwRyyC
This also has so much binding ability, it has the most potential to even "spend" some of its infectivity on other mutations that will benefit its children, sacrificing it for more severity or more innate infectivity....which would be very bad.
The good news is that this variant has only 2 differences between it and what we're already dealing with. Despite the very good ACE2 binding, XBB.1.5 vaccines and prior infections with JN.1 should hold against it at least a little while.: https://ibb.co/42D30fZ
(Note: don't get infected to prevent infection. That's silly. There's NO sure way to know if you were infected with JN.1 unless you get your case sequenced. Get vaccinated and use source control. That's smart and NOT silly.)
Wastewater
Wastewater SARS2 material is rising in the US again. Not a good sign.: https://ibb.co/DGx889k
Regionally, all regions except the West are starting to tick upwards again.: https://ibb.co/dtKpRsK
In PA, the 5 stations that report to Biobot are showing very volatile elves, but Chester, Lackawanna, Luzerne, and MontCo are handling it. :canparrot: GOOD GOING. Source control keeps those numbers down!!!: https://ibb.co/JxZX7YC
BucksCo is on an uptick, now above national averages. Please be cautious and keep working at it for Spring!!! 💐
The PA DoH Wastewater dashboard reflects these rising levels, with levels especially rising in Monroe County. PLEASE USE SOURCE CONTROL. Wear a quality respirator, clean the air with MERV-13 or HEPA filters, and STAY HOME if you are sick!: https://ibb.co/DwtcNgd
Year-Over-Year
Want to remind everyone that this year has the highest national wastewater numbers of all COVID years at this time.: https://ibb.co/WP98zxT
(I changed the color of the 2024 year because the original color used to represent it was...pretty unseeable.)
MORE people are getting infected/reinfected more quickly, and you can see the general trend is for the absolute baseline rising throughout the year.
This is in addition to, on WastewaterSCAN, high levels of other respiratory pathogens like RSV, FluA and FluB and the gastro-disturbing (and just gross) Norovirus.: https://ibb.co/ggyxfBt
Wash hands to prevent especially non SARS pathogens.
🌊👍🌊
Wash fruits and veg too before you eat them!
🌊🍎🥒🌊
Guys, this is us on our way to a high tide that will never drop IF we don't use source control.
But if we do, we can prevent life, learning, and financial loss going into spring and have a LOVELY and healthy new season soon! 💐