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ChrisO_wiki

@ChrisO_wiki@mastodon.social

Independent military historian and researcher. Also (for now) at https://www.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ In the latest of many incidents of official paranoia about colours linked to Ukraine, a man with hair dyed blue, yellow and green was ordered by Moscow police to go and fight in Ukraine after he reported being beaten up and robbed on the street. ⬇️

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2/ OVD-Info reports that Stanislav Netesov went to a Ministry of Internal Affairs police station in Moscow's Tverskoy district on 28 April to report being attacked by unknown assailants the previous night. His phone was stolen and a tooth was knocked out.

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3/ Instead of helping him, the police drew up a criminal report on Netesov for 'discrediting the Russian army' due to his hair being coloured blue, yellow and green (a colour which does not appear in the Ukrainian flag).

According to Netesov, the police took his fingerprints, told him that they would force him to “kiss his native soil in the trenches” and handed him a summons to the military registration and enlistment office.

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4/ There have been many previous incidents of official action being taken against displaying objects in the colours blue and yellow, including floor tiles, flowers, a fence, buildings, artworks, and the flag of the Russian Air Force. /end
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1661313281930215426

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ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting has published an excellent if rather gloomy thread on the current situation in Ukraine. In the interests of helping it to reach a wider audience, I thought an English translation would be useful. https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1784875510805262538

ChrisO_wiki,
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2/ "I invite you to a short thread about the current situation on the frontline. In short, the situation looks very bad and is not expected to improve in the coming weeks.

There are three reasons for the current state of affairs and in principle there is nothing revelatory here, as the problems on the Ukrainian side have been known for a long time: lack of ammunition, manpower, fortifications.

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3/ To illustrate the shortage of artillery ammunition, it is enough to mention that there are units on the Ukrainian side whose expenditure has decreased by 70-90% compared to the summer of 2023. Artillery fire is limited to a minimum and often has to be authorised by brigade commanders.

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4/ In this context, US assistance is now crucial, as it will reduce the disparity between Russian and Ukrainian numbers. But we are still talking here about reducing asymmetry, not about reaching parity. Ukrainian restrictions on access to guns and barrels will effectively affect the number of bombardments the Ukrainians can conduct.

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5/ But what comes from the US will not change the course of this war, it will only delay it. We continue to wait for long-term and systemic solutions, both from the US and Europe, and the presentation of a concrete plan for Ukraine's military support in this war that would allow it to focus on planning (together with Western advisors) and conducting operations on the frontline to regain the initiative.

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6/ The start of fortification construction was delayed. In the context of emerging reports of potential Russian attacks towards Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv (in my opinion, this information is part of Russia's reflexive control mechanism [see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexive_control]), Kiev was faced with the dilemma of choosing a priority area.

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7/ Analysing publicly available satellite images of the areas where Russia is currently leading the assault (Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions), there are no visible fortified lines. It seems that the Ukrainians have focused on building up resistance strongpoints, which are, however, vulnerable to flanking manoeuvres, which is already taking place. It remains to be hoped that additional fortifications are being created deep inside the Donetsk region.

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8/ However, the shortage of soldiers is the key factor that will have the greatest impact on developments on the front in the next 3-4 months. During this time, newly mobilised soldiers will begin to appear on the frontline, but there is also the possibility that their training time will be reduced to a minimum in the event of a Russian breakthrough or a shortage of reserves.

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9/ In that case, Ukraine could find itself in the same situation as Russia in September 2022 [i.e. facing a localised collapse, as happened to Russia in the Kharkiv region].

We are currently seeing attempts to fill gaps in the front line by moving units from other directions, and engaging the 47th Mechanised Brigade or the 3rd Assault Brigade. However, such actions are difficult to sustain in the months ahead due to personnel losses on the Ukrainian side.

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10/ We have reached the point where the situation on the frontline is the worst since March 2022. The Russians' numerical superiority continues to grow, and so does the number of attacks. Ukraine has not survived the darkest hour. It is yet to begin." /end

ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ A memorial to the lost sailors of the Russian missile cruiser Moskva has been unveiled in Sevastopol, two years after the ship's sinking on 13 April 2022. However, many relatives and some of the surviving crew, including the captain, were not invited to the ceremony. ⬇️

image/jpeg

ChrisO_wiki,
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2/ The memorial is dedicated to the sailors of the 30th Surface Ship Division. It was erected opposite the place in Sevastopol harbour where Moskva used to dock, and was unveiled on Saturday 13 April 2024. Most of those named on it were Moskva crew members.

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3/ Photos of the memorial have recently been published. It comprises a slab two meters high and about five meters long, three stones with the names of 20 of the dead crew members and one other sailor at the foot of the slab, and a stone with an engraved image of the ship.

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4/ According to Dmitry Shkrebets, the father of one of the dead sailors, the ceremony was "unofficial", although the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Vice-Admiral, Sergei Pinchuk, participated in it. A separate memorial dedicated solely to Moskva has also been promised.

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5/ Shkrebets says that "many of the relatives of the deceased children received notification of [the ceremony] (in the form of a telephone call or communication in Internet chats) literally one day before it, some did not receive it at all."

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6/ Shkrebets notes that the Russian Ministry of Defence still claims that there is one person dead and 27 missing from Moskva, meaning that 8 are still unaccounted for. He comments that "the relatives of these guys are still waiting for them to go home alive..." /end

Sources:
🔹 https://vk.com/wall601245129_36896
🔹 https://t.me/agentstvonews/5869
🔹 https://t.me/astrapress/53605
🔹 https://t.me/rusfleet/10274

ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ Russia is considering resuming production of low-quality gasoline to make up for shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries. However, this is likely to cause damage to vehicles, which owners may find difficult to repair due to a shortage of spare parts. ⬇️

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7/ "When one of the 'experts' say that we have few cars with Euro-6 fuel, he is deeply mistaken. We have a lot with Euro-5 and quite a few with Euro-6. Well, we probably have nowhere to go, we'll have to drive, but we will have to prepare for not the most pleasant times."

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8/ A Skoda repair specialist says that "most likely, there will be problems with burnout of pistons, valves and other elements. The fuel will burn poorly, continue to burn in the exhaust manifold, and the temperature there will be significantly higher than it should be. All catalysers may burn out, causing the lambda probe to read incorrect readings that will go to the engine control unit. And then it goes in a circle - errors, unstable work, and so on."

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9/ The Skoda specialist suggested that the situation might end up being like that in Uzbekistan, where the antiquated Soviet-era 'Normal-80' (Al-80) low-octane fuel is still used.

"They use gasoline there like our old -80. On modern engines, especially in Skoda Kodiak cars, pistons burn out in almost every second car with a mileage of 40,000 kilometers or more."

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10/ Replacing damaged components is likely to be more difficult and expensive due to the effect of sanctions, particularly for Western-made vehicles. Kommersant suggests that the proposals are unlikely to be accepted due to the amount of harm they could cause. /end

Sources:
🔹 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-considers-easing-gasoline-environmental-requirements-sources-say-2024-04-10/
🔹 https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6636195
🔹 https://t.me/agentstvonews/5859

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