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ChrisO_wiki

@ChrisO_wiki@mastodon.social

Independent military historian and researcher. Also (for now) at https://www.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ Pressures from the war in Ukraine are reportedly contributing to a massive staff shortage in Russia's internal security forces. The Interior Ministry is said to be short of 152,000 staff. As a result, it is reportedly "paralysed" and unable to do its job of fighting crime. ⬇️

ChrisO_wiki,
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2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that Interior Ministry head Vladimir Kolokoltsev recently told Russia's Federation Council (the Russian legislature's upper house) that his ministry was short of 152,000 personnel. This figure had increased by 150% in the last 6 months.

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3/ This follows reports last year about tens of thousands of vacancies in the Ministry of the Interior (MVD), with many policemen and other security personnel quitting to find better prospects elsewhere. The situation appears to have got worse since then.
https://mastodon.social/

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4/ According to an Interior Ministry source, this is due to a combination of cumbersome recruitment processes, competition from the military due to better salaries being offered to go and fight in Ukraine, and a steady exodus of demoralised employees.

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5/ New employees must pass a military-medical examination and obtain various pieces of paperwork for employment (presumably for vetting purposes), which takes 6 months. Once they join, they must undergo 6 months of training. It therefore takes a year for them to be operational.

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6/ Many employees have quit to go to much better-paid jobs fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine. Even better-paid employees in senior roles such as heads of departments and divisions are said to be "at a low starting point" compared to the military.

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7/ Excessive bureaucracy and mismanagement within the MVD are also cited as factors. According to VChK-OGPU's source, the flow of resignations increased after it became clear that Kolokoltsev would be staying in his position.

"The reason for this is the fact that [the MVD's] work is completely paralysed, employees are puzzled by tasks unfamiliar to them, as well as instead of a real fight against crime there is paperwork, assignments, checks, and reports."

ChrisO_wiki,
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8/ The Interior Ministry's problems illustrate how the pressures of the war in Ukraine are hollowing out other elements of the Russian state. As previously reported, the result has been a rise in crime, with many serious offences including rape and murder going unsolved. /end

Source:
https://t.me/vchkogpu/48292

ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ Two more incidents have been reported of Russians being fined or denounced for association with the colours of blue and yellow – Ukraine's national colours. They include a journalist who was denounced for being photographed in a yellow jacket against a blue sky. ⬇️

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2/ The journalist, Vologda region reporter Antonida Smolina, was photographed wearing a yellow down jacket with a cloudy blue sky in the background. After the picture was published on her social media (probably VK) page, she was denounced by a certain Valery Nikolaevich P.

According to Smolina, the complaint stated that she was "photographed in a yellow down jacket against the blue sky, thereby causing associations with enemy symbols, discrediting our government and army."

ChrisO_wiki,
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3/ A policeman came to her house to interview her. She was able to convince him that she had purchased her jacket at least three years ago and her salary had not permitted her to update it since then. However, Smolina was concerned her denouncer's mentality:

"I decided to talk about this so that people understand that they need to be careful - there is no guarantee that the people around you are normal ... What is going on in their head, in their soul? Where did this come from?"

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4/ Less understanding was shown towards a Moscow metro user who was denounced by a fellow metro passenger for having an embroidered yellow and blue flower on her bag. She was identified using facial recognition and was fined 30,000 rubles ($329) by a Moscow district court.

Maria Virovets was convicted for “discrediting” the Russian army by “having the colours of the flag” of Ukraine as “a means of visual propaganda, a negative attitude towards the ongoing special military operation.”

ChrisO_wiki,
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5/ She denied the offence, saying that she was not campaigning. Her daughter had made it for her in 2022. However, the judge found “no reason to doubt” the police’s statements and found Virovets guilty.

There have been many previous incidents of official action being taken against displaying objects in the colours blue and yellow, including floor tiles, flowers, a fence, buildings, artworks, and the flag of the Russian Air Force. /end
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1661313281930215426

ChrisO_wiki,
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ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ In the latest of many incidents of official paranoia about colours linked to Ukraine, a man with hair dyed blue, yellow and green was ordered by Moscow police to go and fight in Ukraine after he reported being beaten up and robbed on the street. ⬇️

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2/ OVD-Info reports that Stanislav Netesov went to a Ministry of Internal Affairs police station in Moscow's Tverskoy district on 28 April to report being attacked by unknown assailants the previous night. His phone was stolen and a tooth was knocked out.

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3/ Instead of helping him, the police drew up a criminal report on Netesov for 'discrediting the Russian army' due to his hair being coloured blue, yellow and green (a colour which does not appear in the Ukrainian flag).

According to Netesov, the police took his fingerprints, told him that they would force him to “kiss his native soil in the trenches” and handed him a summons to the military registration and enlistment office.

ChrisO_wiki,
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4/ There have been many previous incidents of official action being taken against displaying objects in the colours blue and yellow, including floor tiles, flowers, a fence, buildings, artworks, and the flag of the Russian Air Force. /end
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1661313281930215426

ChrisO_wiki,
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ChrisO_wiki, to random
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1/ Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting has published an excellent if rather gloomy thread on the current situation in Ukraine. In the interests of helping it to reach a wider audience, I thought an English translation would be useful. https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1784875510805262538

ChrisO_wiki,
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5/ But what comes from the US will not change the course of this war, it will only delay it. We continue to wait for long-term and systemic solutions, both from the US and Europe, and the presentation of a concrete plan for Ukraine's military support in this war that would allow it to focus on planning (together with Western advisors) and conducting operations on the frontline to regain the initiative.

ChrisO_wiki,
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6/ The start of fortification construction was delayed. In the context of emerging reports of potential Russian attacks towards Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv (in my opinion, this information is part of Russia's reflexive control mechanism [see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexive_control]), Kiev was faced with the dilemma of choosing a priority area.

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7/ Analysing publicly available satellite images of the areas where Russia is currently leading the assault (Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions), there are no visible fortified lines. It seems that the Ukrainians have focused on building up resistance strongpoints, which are, however, vulnerable to flanking manoeuvres, which is already taking place. It remains to be hoped that additional fortifications are being created deep inside the Donetsk region.

ChrisO_wiki,
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8/ However, the shortage of soldiers is the key factor that will have the greatest impact on developments on the front in the next 3-4 months. During this time, newly mobilised soldiers will begin to appear on the frontline, but there is also the possibility that their training time will be reduced to a minimum in the event of a Russian breakthrough or a shortage of reserves.

ChrisO_wiki,
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9/ In that case, Ukraine could find itself in the same situation as Russia in September 2022 [i.e. facing a localised collapse, as happened to Russia in the Kharkiv region].

We are currently seeing attempts to fill gaps in the front line by moving units from other directions, and engaging the 47th Mechanised Brigade or the 3rd Assault Brigade. However, such actions are difficult to sustain in the months ahead due to personnel losses on the Ukrainian side.

ChrisO_wiki,
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10/ We have reached the point where the situation on the frontline is the worst since March 2022. The Russians' numerical superiority continues to grow, and so does the number of attacks. Ukraine has not survived the darkest hour. It is yet to begin." /end

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