@delong@mastodon.social
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delong

@delong@mastodon.social

Brad DeLong.

Author of “Slouching Towards Utopia: The Economic History of the 20th Century” <bit.ly/3pP3Krk>

Author of “Grasping Reality Substack” <http://braddelong.substack.com>

Economic Historian.

Professor of the University of California at Berkeley.

Sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury

Too oline since 1995

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. Browse more on the original instance.

delong, to random
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This, from the "Financial Times" Editorial Board, Neither Tells It Straight Nor Plays Its Proper Position. So What to Do?
What to do when the Editorial Board of a usually very good newspaper goes all-in on the stupid?...
< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/this-from-the-financial-times-editorial >
2024-05-23 Th

delong, to random
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Doctor Frankenstein's Venture-Capital Pitch
Very lightly edited from ChatGPT4. Cosma Shalizi should in no way be held responsible for anything...
< https://braddelong.substack.com/p/doctor-frankensteins-venture-capital >
2024-05-11 Sa

cstross, to random
@cstross@wandering.shop avatar

Welp, in just three days Edinburgh's weather has done a screeching handbrake turn from spring into summer. As in, I'm no longer tweaking the central heating—it's off for the next few months—and the windows are open and it's nearly time to dust off the office air conditioner.

delong,
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@cstross You hae an air conditioner in Edinburgh!?!?

delong, to random
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Macroeconomy Soft Landing Watch: Still in the Groove

I have to confess, I do not see where the upward swing in long Treasury yields is coming from. But then I did not see where it was coming from early last fall either. I get that a lot of rich people wish to keep their Trump tax cut—a most notable thing that was, for who other than Donald Trump could devise a cut on taxes on capital that provided 0% net incentive to invest and 100% net incentive to do stock buybacks?—& that a lot of... 1/

delong, to random
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Tesla Needs Its Tim Cook Now!
What is Tesla, Anyway? And What Is to Be Done About Its Management? Now that Elon Musk is no longer a fundraiser, cheerleader, & sometime coach for engineers pushing forward remarkable & essential technologies and has become a meme-stock tech-bubble carnival barker, is he the right CEO for Tesla? No. What Tesla needs now is its very own Tim Cook…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/what-is-tesla-anyway-and-what-is>
2024-05-01 We

delong, to random
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Why Is the Apple Vision Pro Going to Get Its Shot, While the Humane AI Pin Is Not Going to?
How much rationality is there in the market reactions so far—rationality in individual assessments and intentions, & rationality in the workings of humanity considered as an anthology intelligence here?…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/why-is-the-apple-vision-pro-going>
2024-04-19 Fr

delong, to random
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READING: Jo Walton (1998): "The Lurkers Support Me in Email"
Perhaps the best poem written about the early internet. The main implicit point still holds true today...
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/reading-jo-walton-1998-the-lurkers>
2024-03-29 Fr

annaleen, to random
@annaleen@wandering.shop avatar

I have trained my media studies students to refer to Stuart Hall as "Uncle Stuart Hall" and I'm not sorry.

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@annaleen ??? Why would one ever be sorry for doing such a thing ???

delong, to random
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Bill Ackman: A Four-Thousand Word Tweet
& then there are six hundred more words in his next tweet...
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/bill-ackman-a-four-thousand-word>
2024-01-06 Sa

delong, to random
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delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

HOISTED FROM THE INTERNET OF LONG AGO: Cosma Shalizi (2010): The Singularity in Our Past Light-Cone
What Cosma Shalizi calls "yet another semi-crank pet notion, nursed quietly for many years, now posted...
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from-the-internet-of-long>
2023-12-15 Fr

delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

REPOSTED: SubStackers Against Nazis
I agree with this 100%. The proper number of Nazi-propagandist SubStacks is ZERO. Where, exactly, the line is between “a hands-off approach and putting your thumb on the scale” via algorithm is something we can discuss. But I am not interested in any more discussions with anyone who thinks that line is anywhere near Nazi propaganda like “Jewish Question” or “Great Replacement”…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/reposted-substackers-against-nazis>
2023-12-14 Th

delong, to random
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Elon Musk Today Claims Wealth Equal to 2.5 Million Times Median Household Income; His Predecessor Daniel Ludwig in 1982 Claimed Only 85 Thousand Times
Yes, Virginia: income and wealth inequality has grown in the Neoliberal Age—and by a lot…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/elon-musk-today-claims-wealth-equal>
2023-11-29 We

delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-24 Fr
The reality of Bayesian-distribution tails; Britain’s George Osborne imagines that not friendship but money is magic; Team Transitory!; you should read Matt Yglesias especially if you find him annoying; Republicans as cause & effect of major societal failure; Andrej Karpathy on LLMs; very briefly noted: & notes on the OpenAI coup, index funds & private equity making the economy less fair?, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-19 Su
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-noted-for-2023-11-24-fr>
2023-11-24 Fr

annaleen, to random
@annaleen@wandering.shop avatar

So annoyed when somebody says "oh that person/civilization is so foolish and simple -- they are obsessed with superstition." Do you know how much brain power it requires to create and maintain superstitions? A W H O L E L O T

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@annaleen The rain is a girl and she has a boyfriend with severe anger-management problems and a magic hammer. So do not stand outside on a hilltop while it is raining or he might think you are trying to woo her and then he might hit you with Mjöllnir!

cstross, to random
@cstross@wandering.shop avatar

"Season of Skulls" is the third book in the New Management trilogy.

It's 2017, and the UK languishes under the dictatorship of Nyarlathotep, the Black Pharaoh. Bad magic is oozing out everywhere, they're racking up skulls on Marble Arch, and there's no brexit like a brexit led by an Elder God! But it's business as usual for sorcerer Eve Starkey, until she receives a summons from the PM, who has a problem with her predecessor ...

https://publishing.tor.com/seasonofskulls-charlesstross/9781250839398/

https://store.orbit-books.co.uk/products/season-of-skulls?_pos=2&_sid=2b784b872&_ss=r

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@cstross I STILL WANT TO KNOW!! "NYARLAT-HOTEP" MEANS "NYARLAT IS PLEASED".

WHO OR WHAT IS NYARLAT!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

Chat-GPT as Clever Hans Once Again
It flubs on what my general orientation thinks ought to be a relatively easy task for a near- but sub-Turing intelligence that can do internet searches...
<https://open.substack.com/pub/braddelong/p/chat-gpt-as-clever-hans-once-again>
2023-11-01 We

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@graydon But can they do something that emulates those 90% of the time?

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@graydon well, yes: a real parrot has to figure out where the nuts are, and eat them or die. All a stochastic parrot has to do is persuade a gullible venture capitalist to part with his money. A much easier task.

marcoarment, to random
@marcoarment@mastodon.social avatar

First plausible M3 tests are hitting Geekbench, presumably from press-review units: https://browser.geekbench.com/search?q=M3

Single/multi-core:

M3: ~3000/~11,700 (if these are real)
M2: ~2600/~9700
M1: ~2300/~8300

Looks great! A 30–40% improvement over three years is remarkable, especially for such a low-power and low-cost chip.

(No Pro or Max scores yet.)

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@marcoarment @juven scaling is really hard!

delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

REVIEW: Manville & Ober: "The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives”

Another attempt to write a review of this book, after failing to successfully do so last month…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/review-manville-and-ober-the-civic>
2023-10-26 Th

delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

After 30 Years, the Bond Market Vigilantes Are Back!
The end of the long era of "secular stagnation"? Or have bonds now been oversold?...
<https://open.substack.com/pub/braddelong/p/after-30-years-the-bond-market-vigilantes>
2023-10-06 Fr

delong, to random
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

A Note of Puzzlement on Kevin McCarthy's Strategy

I read this as McCarthy tacking left while trying not to say so, and throwing Ukraine under the bus—for the moment at least—to give MAGA-heads & those with embarrassing videos from the Red Square a face-saving way to declare victory. But I do not really know—and if anybody really knows, they are not talking…
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/a-note-of-puzzlement-on-kevin-mccarthys>
2023-10-03 Tu

Green_Footballs, to random
@Green_Footballs@mastodon.social avatar

The House has passed the Continuing Resolution, averting a government shutdown.

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

@Green_Footballs Has the Senate passed it?

delong, to random
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PROJECT SYNDICATE: America's Broken Civic Bargain
I was going to write a review of Manville & Ober’s brand-new survey of democracy in four societies, but I got sidetracked. So instead, I wrote about how since the Republican Party has no plausible economic policy all it can do is gin-up culture war after culture war. As Marc Cooper put it this morning of last night’s Republican debate: “The one issue they all agreed upon was that Americans should be afraid, very afraid, actually scared... 1/

delong,
@delong@mastodon.social avatar

...to death… ‘American Carnage’… present at least as a leitmotif during the entire event…. More words were spent trying to scare the piss out of the audience over the supposed ongoing invasion at the southern border… apparently… more dangerous and volatile than, say, the Polish border in September 1939…” This means we are all hosed. For Manville & Ober are, I think, 100% right in their claim that sustainable democracy requires “civic friendship”…
<https://open.substack.com/pub/braddelong/p/project-syndicate-americas-broken>
2023-09-28 Th 2/END

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