@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org
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dlakelan

@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org

Applied Mathematician, Julia programmer, father of two amazing boys, official coonhound mix mutt-walker.

PhD in Civil Engineering. Debian Linux user since ca. 1994.

Bayesian data analysis iconoclast

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dlakelan, to socialism
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

So, every other subthread is someone talking this and that with very poor commonality of definitions. So here's one to try on for size:

Capitalism: a system of economics in which the state determines through threat of violence a special group of people who have exclusive say in how capital goods are used.

That covers for example both the USA, and USSR pretty well. any other capitalist countries we'd like to discuss?

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

In this conception the USSR was "state capitalism", the general population had no say in capital use, it was the govt appointed bureaucracy. In the US in contrast we have what I'd call "monetary capitalism" in which a person who has acquired a lot of money in their account can buy a license (called the title) to capital assets. The govt will shoot or jail anyone other than the title owner who uses the asset.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan

Yes useful. I like your idea of commons capitalism as an alternative compatible with todays world. Not as much as I like Anarchy, but hey would be better than more of the same at least.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell @Cirdan

I agree with the anthropology argument. But my impression of commons capitalism is that it's kind of "communism except with a real democracy". Like, you join the commons nonprofit and every member gets some kind of vote on the nonprofit's actions. It's definitely better than USSR and better than just a couple billionaires and some hedge funds voting. So, it could be kind of OK. I don't like it if there aren't many different nonprofits doing it so you can choose.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan @GhostOnTheHalfShell

Well, the nonprofit owns all the means of production, and if it has no members then it's just communism with the board of the nonprofit being the politburo no? Or am I missing something?

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan
I guess my point is "benefits the workers" is inherently something that the workers need a say in what that means. if the board of the nonprofit has the sole final say on what that means (authoritarian) then I don't agree with it. If the workers have some specific kind of vote and petition mechanism and it's effective then yes I think it would be fairly reasonable.
@GhostOnTheHalfShell

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan
I don't doubt that it could be my point is just that the definition of social benefits for workers is dependent on what the workers consider to be a benefit and in order to meet its stated goal those things must be incorporated through the workers expressing their preferences. I would want to see the specifics of a example nonprofit in each case and read their bylaws etc which of course doesn't invalidate the idea it just means details matter
@GhostOnTheHalfShell

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan
Just as an example suppose one of these nonprofits is doing well and receiving more and more money do they give the workers a higher tier of HealthCare coverage, or do they reduce hours worked? Or do they vote on it and take the choice most preferred by a score vote system? Or perhaps they give each individual worker a choice in which of those options that worker prefers? For me The more worker autonomy the better in some sense.
@GhostOnTheHalfShell

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan
Not necessarily, a worker can be paid in a mixture of cash and equity. Say I am hired to make bagels for $75k/yr and am paid $60k/yr in cash and $15k/yr in equity for example. Just random numbers for example purposes.
@GhostOnTheHalfShell

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan
Right, I think the answer to that is probably pretty clear. Worker coops generally don't have the same relationship to the creation of money (banks and sales of goods to the govt)
@GhostOnTheHalfShell

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan @GhostOnTheHalfShell

A worker coop doing a good job should have relatively lower equity, paying out dividends to the worker/owners instead. Not zero equity, but at least not the kind of equity Apple accumulates into their hoard. Also they aren't typically selling stock into the stock market due to control issues, so their means to get "big" and therefore "fundable by banks" is limited.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan @GhostOnTheHalfShell

Right, so they tend to be fairly stable and self-sustaining but a small portion of the economy overall. The Cheese Board in Berkeley for example, two location (last I heard) one in Berkeley one in SF, and probably tens of employees probably a few million a year in gross sales. Good for those 30 people or whatever, but not altering the landscape of bakeries CA wide or US wide.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan @GhostOnTheHalfShell

It's sort of related to Anarcho-syndicalism. I approve the thoughts and hope to hear more from you about specifics at a later date.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@Cirdan
Perhaps a GitHub for the document? Just a thought.
@GhostOnTheHalfShell

dlakelan, to random
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

In this random comment on Gelman's blog I describe how @SaintPeter and I broke into the field of "industrial mathematics" LOL

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/05/23/gpt-today-jokes-and-buffons-needle-in-python-with-plotting/#comment-2372790

FantasticalEconomics, to climate
@FantasticalEconomics@geekdom.social avatar

Ah, #capitalism. Neoclasical (mainstream) economic theory tells us it ensures resources will be put to the best, most efficient use. However, ignores the obvious: wealth equals power, so that what is "best" for society is what the richest value.

Like chasing everlasting youth by getting weekly blood transfusions from your teenage son and $40,000 gym membership add-ons.

Imagine if these resources were devoted to fighting #ClimateChange or #poverty instead.

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/19/wellness-longevity-industry-equinox-membership

#economics

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@FantasticalEconomics
It's easily possible to make a system controlled by a variable whose value is completely uncorrelated with the variable it controls...

Drive over hills while using cruise control. The throttle pedal controls the speed and yet while the throttle goes up and down, the speed remains constant. There is zero correlation between cause and effect.
@AlexanderKingsbury @jackofalltrades

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@FantasticalEconomics
You are using the word "imply" as if it were the word "suggest". Yes, correlation suggests some causation may be at work, but the word "imply" in "correlation does not imply causation" means "logically prove". As in big feet implies small shoes will not fit.
@AlexanderKingsbury @jackofalltrades

GhostOnTheHalfShell, to random
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

:ablobwobble:

BREAKING: The Justice Department and 30 U.S. states have filed a sweeping lawsuit charging Live Nation-Ticketmaster with running illegal monopolies over ticketing and concert promotion. “It is time to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster," Attorney General Merrick Garland said.

https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkxi2qL6xnM7cqagpcEAqODbeOdw9VB7J9Q

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell

Seems more like a candidate for a public utility than break-up. We know breaking up ATT didn't really work.

dlakelan, to random
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

I give you civilian labor force with a disability (16yo or older)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01074597

ChrisMayLA6, to random
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar

How do you know you've been gaslighted?

when a Bank of England director tells you its 'possible' interest rates will be reduced over the summer....

Of course its possible they'll be reduced, but my guess is they'll just want to keep them high a little longer... just to make sure those pesky workers & their demands for a return to pst standards of living have been firmly dampened down.

Perhaps, by some strange co-incidence they'll fall the month before an Autumn election?

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell
Stats is like Econ, it's full of bog standard stuff in all the textbooks that is wrong.

Not math wrong, just inappropriately applied with bad assumptions.

If it involves tests or p values feel free to avoid any of that. For now focus on making good plots of interesting facts.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell
Here's an example of interesting question, what's a typical ratio of rent+utilities to mortgage+utilities in each county each year. To make that ratio you need to decide on households you can compare. Probably match county, year, household size, then randomize them and form the ratios and histogram that.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell
I think the ACS has an estimate of taxes paid on income? So another one would be distribution of the ratio of annual income minus taxes to annual rent+utilities, and you could split out by household size.

Don't expect you to be able to just do these manipulations right straight off but your coding background is gonna make it pretty easy for you to read documentation and examples and work out how to do what you need I'm pretty sure.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell
Richard McElreath's "Statistical Rethinking" is my recommendation.

I started putting together some example stuff for videos here

https://github.com/dlakelan/JuliaDataYouTube

But then opted out of the YouTube ecosystem. Thinking of doing them on my own PeerTube instance instead.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell
I don't think you can track families in the ACS data. Maybe each family is interviewed twice? But it might just be once.

Yeah questions like the ones you raise are good. Sometimes we just start simple and add complexity. Sqft is not available I think, but house type might be (single family, townhouse, trailer, whatever). A good place to start is the data dictionary they give you in the ZIP file (I think it's included?). Understand what's been collected first.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell
I've got a gigabit connection and PeerTube distributes the videos via BitTorrent so it might be ok to run it out of my closet. But yeah, Archive.org is good stuff I love them.

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