ai6yr, (edited )

Radar at 12/21 1804 currently shows the storm is parked offshore from Los Angeles (dumping quite a bit there). Still raining in Oxnard.

ai6yr,

Rain hits Ensenada, Mexico at 1am per HRRR. Inland San Diego at 2am. San Diego Mountains at 3am. LA/Long Beach/Indio at 4am.

2am forecast showing San Diego
3am forecast showing San Diego mountains
4am forecast showing finally hitting LA

ai6yr,

HRRR still saying Santa Barbara gets most of the rain. But maybe some excitement out in the desert. 5 inches of rain in India in only a few hours (!). HRR seems to have that all landing in Indio between 11am and 4pm tomorrow (Friday).

ai6yr,

So, the ghost in the HRRR machine puts totals near Santa Barbara (on 12/22/23 at 9am) at less than an Inch. But at 12/22/23 at 10am then says it thinks total accumulation will be 5 inches. It's likely a glitch (the HRRR accumulation algorithm), but I do wonder what's going to be correct.

image/png

phpete,
@phpete@mastodon.coffee avatar

@ai6yr looking back on actual measurements - we got hit with 5.5 in 11 hours Sunday PM - Monday AM this week.

Father in law 9mi down the road only 3.

Stuff happens🤷

I guess folks will have to wait and see.

Your Stupid Laugh GIF

ai6yr,

@phpete 5.5 inches!! Whew!

douglasvb,
@douglasvb@mastodon.social avatar

@ai6yr @phpete jeeze are y'all okay? Are you neighbors collecting two animals of every species and loading them on their pontoon boat? 😬

joycebell,
@joycebell@mas.to avatar

@phpete @ai6yr That’s a LOT of rain. Milwaukee got 6+” on August 8, 1986 which was crazy too. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-08-08-mn-1849-story.html

Viss,
@Viss@mastodon.social avatar

@ai6yr wunderground has, i shit you not, like ten times in a row threatened thunder and lightning down here, and its never happened, so im really curious wtf is actually gonna happen tonight

ai6yr,

@Viss 🤔

Viss,
@Viss@mastodon.social avatar

@ai6yr wunderround is squarely on drugs. and not the good kind either, like jenkem or krokodil or something similar. if you watch its forecasts for even one day out they in many cases will swing WILDLY.

ai6yr,

@Viss Yeah, I'm not familiar with what they are using for forecasts... When they aren't very transparent about it, sometimes forecasting apps can be very unreliable

Viss,
@Viss@mastodon.social avatar

@ai6yr at one point last week i got frustrated and tried to get gpt4 to write me a bash script that would scrape like five weather sites for my zipcode and combine then average the forecasts. it .. kinda worked? i should try it again and refine it. at least then im hedging bets on the average

ai6yr,

@Viss You can use the National Weather Service website (and its widgets) for the best forecasts.... All the other weather websites are some derivative of that.

ai6yr,
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