During the #Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here’s how it is: Things are not going well
It is good practice to evaluate things honestly - with all their gloominess. And if we don't shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In #Ukraine, in the rest of #Europe and possibly globally
#Ukraine is starved of ammunition and forced to pull back, #Europe is ⏩
↪ facing challenges which might test Article 5, and global instability emerges because autocrats are emboldened by #russia's action and our cautious response. This is not pessimism. This is fact
Baseless optimism is a form of self-deception, it is demobilising us. How can we expect to convince the public to spend more on defence, take a stronger stance against #russia and support countries on the eastern flank if leaders won’t admit there is an urgent need?
↪ because tomorrow might be too late. We need a push, a jolt, a shock to wake us up. The war is not over, it's far from won, the enemy is very much alive and our European future is at stake
I have no doubt that the West has the capacity to help #Ukraine win this war. That is a fact. It is also clear that #russia’s industrial power is no match for the united West. But...
We don't lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support #Ukraine and maintain our ⏩
↪ collective security. #russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy #Ukraine and reestablish the #russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this?
Currently we are an open book to our adversary - clear red lines of non-engagement, disagreements over continuation of assistance and an optimistic blindness to increasing risks. We show no urgency in ramping up our readiness
Strategically the goal should be to change #putin's calculations. Disrupt the field. ⏩
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