I’m not so sure it actually would hurt Trump more than Biden.
I think that any Republican who was disgusted by Trump didn’t vote for him in 2020. I don’t think there’s too many more voters out there who:
A) voted for him in 2016 B) were appalled by his administration C) voted for him again in 2020 D) were appalled by January 6th E) still plan to vote for him a third time, and F) would change their mind and vote for a 3rd party Cheney in 2024, given the option.
That’s a lot of conditions that would have to be met for Cheney to pull a Trump vote.
On the other hand, I think there’s probably a lot more voters out there who:
A) Don’t like trump and refuse to vote for him in 2024 B) Don’t like Biden either, for any number of reasons C) would jump at the chance to cast a vote for a right wing conservative that is not only “not Trump” but in fact “anti-Trump”, which mirrors their attitudes toward the main party candidates pretty damn closely.
I feel that Trump’s base is smaller but more loyal and dedicated, compared to Biden’s base, which has a smaller core but much larger overall…but the non-core part of his base is less cohesive.
Basically, he’s running, as in 2020, as “the option that is not trump that the fewest people hate”. And honestly, I can’t argue with that logic.
That was the logic in the run up to the 2020 election, and other than age, not much has changed, so the strategy isn’t likely to meaningfully change either. Add to that situation the facts that 4 years of Biden have been, broadly, “not great, not terrible”, that he hasn’t been the feeble minded fool that the MAGA base tried to paint him as, and the fact that not too many people really liked him 4 years ago and he still won…and here we are 4 years later with not too many people really liking him (but tons of people liking him better than Trump) and the calculus is pointing toward a repeat of last term.
Honestly at this point, I don’t think Biden has been bad enough to turn away anyone who voted for him in 2020, and I don’t see anyone voting for Trump in 2016, not voting for him in 2020, and voting for him again in 2024 provided the calculus doesn’t change…which it absolutely would if Cheney runs. I think Trump draws less overall votes this go-round (people who have him their vote in 2016 and 2020, but who are turned off enough by the insurrection and legal issues to stay home…not many, but more than the number of new Trump voters), so then it’s down to how many votes Biden gets (and of course where he gets them).
That said, I’m far less concerned about advance polling and approval ratings, and I’m far more concerned with voter access in places like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, the Carolinas, Wisconsin, and Ohio. If GOP voter suppression works enough to decide close races in these areas, that will have more real impact than anything else. All of that goes out the window, though, if moderates and center-right Republicans see Cheney on the ballot.
Basically, I think Biden holds the advantage in a straight 2020 rematch, but things look a lot less optimistic with Cheney muddying the waters. As much as I hate to say it from a political philosophy standpoint, I think the best path to preventing another Trump win is giving voters less choice next November.
I don't see Cheney pulling many votes from Biden, but I think there's a lot of Republicans who dislike the Christofascist direction Trump has taken the party in yet are still unwilling to vote Democrat, she would be a protest vote for these people as well as a spoiler for Trump.
You’re making a lot of opinion statements with nothing at all in the way of reasoning to back it up.
Not saying there isn’t reasoning, but in the absence of any of it being shared, it’s impossible to even engage such a comment in discourse.
I don’t see Cheney pulling many votes from Biden
Okay.
I do.
Difference: I explained why.
Please explain how Cheney’s presence won’t sway at least some moderate centrist voters who don’t like either trump or Biden. I disagree with you, but I’m nonetheless interested to hear why you hold your opinions.
I think there’s a lot of Republicans who dislike the Christofascist direction Trump has taken the party in yet are still unwilling to vote Democrat,
I agree with you here.
However, my takeaway from this is: these voters were never going to be Biden voters anyway, so that means they’re either going to be non-voters in 2024 based on ideology, or they’re going to be Trump voters based on overall party loyalty (that is: “I don’t like Trump, but we’re still better off with a Republican in the white house…even if it’s trump, versus 4 more years of a Democrat”…the inverse of a lot of Biden voters, ironically).
If they were going to be a non-voter, they now become a Cheney voter. Okay great, but it changes literally nothing.
If they were voting for Trump for the party in spite of the man, then Cheney running doesn’t change their rationale, and a trump vote, no matter how distasteful, is still the only logical anti-Democrat vote.
Either way, Cheney running isn’t meaningfully fracturing the GOP base.
You might be right, I found this article that seems to be supporting your position, that she would help more than hinder Trump, but it relies on extrapolation from a 5-way race with different spoiler candidates. I haven't seen any 2024 polling specifically regarding likely Cheney voters.
And you’re not likely to find that kind of polling since polling itself is time and labor intensive, and these pollsters have a finite amount of resources, so they’re not going to devote much of them to these outlier scenarios, especially this early.
If Cheney is still in the discussion in 6 months, you’ll get that polling.
And as much as that source may support my thinking, it’s also very much worth noting nymag’s left bias.
I’m arguing against myself here, but in the interests of being circumspect on the topic, right now it seems like the Democratic tactic is accepting they have an unpopular candidate and weakly united coalition of voters, with the one big commonality among them being that everybody desperately wants someone in the white house not named Donald Trump.
On one hand, this makes their job easy over in Campaign Strategy. Just confirm that Joe Biden is not, in fact, Donald Trump…and then remind everybody of that.
On the other, it means that the only real effective way to sort of “herd the flock” and keep the coalition together is to avoid doing or saying anything that might offend anyone under the tent…and constantly, constantly fear monger the shit out of them with theories and polls and op-eds and anything else they can come up with to A) make sure they don’t forget how awful Trump is, B) remind them that while they may not like Biden, last they checked, he wasn’t Donald Trump, and C) stress how much this election is not in the bag and that just like 2020 they need every single goddamned one of us to get to the polls and vote for Joe Biden, or were going to see another Trump presidency.
Liberalism is a political and moral philosophy based on the rights of the individual, liberty, consent of the governed, political equality, right to private property and equality before the law. Liberals espouse various views depending on their understanding of these principles but generally support private property, market economies, individual rights (including civil rights and human rights), liberal democracy, secularism, rule of law, economic and political freedom, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, and freedom of religion, constitutional government and privacy rights.
Then why does he label himself progressive and why is he STILL trying to send billions of dollars to continue the slaughter of Palestine?
I'm a life long liberal Democrat.
I dont know where your copy pasta comes from and I'm not clicking on your link.
Liberals are anti-war. Progressives are pro-status quo, which is pro military industrial complex, which is pro Israel slaughtering innocents with weapons and ammunition made by American military contractors.
I don’t have anything to add to this conversation but I just want to say you’ve done a great job at reporting news while remaining civil DarkGamer. I’ve never seen you get heated or take an all or nothing stance on an issue and honestly it’s so refreshing to see. You’re proof that people can debate things without resorting to shit slinging and name calling. Keep up the good work 👍
The new use of the term stems from when Hilary, in a primary debate, refused to identify as liberal (being a life long staunch conservative until she was stuck on her liberal hubby's coat tails), and instead insisted that she was a progressive.
She lost the election to Obama.
When it was time for Progressive-Democrat Hilary to take the office from Liberal-Democrat Obama, she lost to Liberal-Recently-Democrat Sanders... then the DNC disagreed and cast a "revote" to put up Progressive-Democrat Hilary anyway.
She lost the election to Trump.
In the biggest slow pitch in history, America "anyone else"-ed itself into Progressive-Biden, who has spent 4 years jerking off Republicans into a frenzy (oh sorry, reacharounding... er... reaching across the aisle) and funding genocide. Like you'd expect if you listened to Hilary about what a modern Progressive is.
americans use “liberal” to only mean socially liberal, however liberal describes both economic and social philosophies
Liberalism is a political and moral philosophy based on the rights of the individual, liberty, consent of the governed, political equality, right to private property and equality before the law.
It won't be the birth of a third party, it'll be the year the House decides who gets to be president. That's what happens when no one gets enough electoral votes.
Not with first past the post, it’s not. Nor the electoral college. Trump or Biden WILL be president in 2024 so long as they are alive, regardless of who people vote for. Literally. It could be an even split between ten candidates and it will be either Trump or Biden.
That they will, but that’s why it’s so important to know where to effect change. With first past the post and ironically, after some progressive laws being passed, it’s actually really important to go for one party or the other. At least in the states where the electors are in theory bound to vote with the popular vote.
You might say that sounds like a good reason to go third party, but it’s still first past the post. If no one wins, then some selection of politicians pick, and they won’t pick third party anyways.
The president is a shit show. If you want to engage in effective politics, it’s way more about local and off-year engagement. Maybe if we get rid of first past the post or get other tallying methods in, we might have a chance at big seat change, but until then… They’re sadly legally entrenched very well.
I’m a staunch progressive, but if she somehow becomes the nexus of a new “reasonable conservative” party in the US, I would honestly love it. I disagree with her on nearly everything - especially domestic matters - but she and I both apparently actually give a shit about small-d democracy, and that’s something I can actually work with.
Yes I very much respect the minority of conservatives who are loyal Americans instead of power mad neofascists trying to subvert our precious 245 year old democracy.
If people are ultimately willing to abide by the rules of democracy, they’re not a lost cause - they can be negotiated with.
The line is drawn at dogmatic, slavish devotion to the idea of power at all costs with complete disregard to democratic processes. That isn’t something you can have a debate with.
Yes I very much respect the minority of conservatives who are loyal Americans instead of power mad neofascists trying to subvert our precious 245 year old democracy.
If there were more than 5 of these unicorns Trump wouldn't have done so well in 2020, and Republicans in congress wouldn't be the clown show that they are today because of the pressure they'd have been receiving from their constituents.
The current state of Repubican leadership convinces me that the only pressure they are getting from their consituents is to go harder with facism.
I hope she fractures the R vote also. But I'm not going to forget what conservative America has enabled and continues to support to this day.
A conservative's loyalty to America comes from a desire to maintain traditional values, social orders, and hierarchies of people.
They don't deserve respect. The ones who deserve respect are the ones trying to protect the rights of individuals, maximize the social good of all people, and foster an environment of progress for the future -- the liberals, socialists, and the progressives, that is. People who declare themselves conservative stand in opposition to these things by definition. They do not want things to change for the better because they do not want things to change at all unless it is going backwards.
I'll take the allies I can in this existential fight, but I have zero respect for anyone who's proud to be a conservative.
Or she could just caucus with the Dems. Have exactly the same official platform, a lot of influence, and show the courage of her convictions by truly rejecting fascism.
She doesn't do so because she does not fully reject fascism.
Explain to me what policies McCain advocates for that are so incompatible with the Dem party platform that it can come even close to being a "diametrical" opposition?
Is it her desire to police uteruses? That's not an issue the dems have historically cared to do anything about in spite of myriad opportunities to protect the right to control your own body. She'd hardly be the only anti-choice democrat.
She changed her mind on opposition to same-sex marriage. She's helped pass gun control packages. The only thing she's been vocal about is being anti-Trump, and the best way to defeat Trump is not as Republican and is CERTAINLY not as an independent actor. Hell, running third party will probably increase Trump's odds.
Sorry, Cheney. Same fucking difference, those two. They're both snakes that don't have the courage to do what really needs to be done to put an end to the rise of fascism -- abandon the party and ideology of fascism.
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