How are these stats aggregated and sourced? If these are coming directly from Reddit, I mean, I wouldnt put it past them to try and modify those values with bot accounts if necessary.
Reddit can't even read their own stats right when they threatened r/Finland they said they have 2 million users the mods checked and they have 20k users but 2 million views.
The real dip will happen when the third party apps go down, specially with stuff like reddit Sync's dev now making Sync for Lemmy instead, and Artemis for kbin/Lemmy and Memmy being heavily inspired by Apollo.
Lots of people come over when you explain it to them; even made this quick summary including Sync and Artemis to explain to confused redditors what's happening, and it seems to be effective. Feel free to use it.
Conversely if there are no easily accessible apps by the 30th, then many will cave and use the default app, and turn what would be a tsunami of new users into the #fediverse a trickle -
I think the two things that need to happen is that there needs to be good native apps and the moderators need to move as well.
Reddit will never be normal again after this. Someone else said it recently - It doesn’t matter if only 5% (or less) of the user base leave because this 5% will most likely be the most passionate and active users actively creating content that is not advertisement.
In the long run; the content quality will decline because of that.
In addition, these statistics likely do not distinguish what is bot traffic that are scraping the site vs users. The bots will keep scraping.
Reddit basically had a monopoly -- given how quickly things are moving on Lemmy and other sites -- I think that monopoly is over. It's still a bit too chaotic here for a major mass move but there's now so much more interesting content. People will eventually figure out how to make these sites competitive now that there is so much interest.
It's at that point that things will really change.
I think you and @Screak42 hit the nail on the head.
There was never going to be a mass exodus, not without an established competitor (as Reddit was to Digg back in the day).
Trust has been broken. That's like a boat that now has a tiny hole in it- it may not sink now, but that doesn't mean it's not sinking.
That said- I don't think there will be a mass move. I think the more passionate old school people will migrate away, which will leave less content for the newer folks. The site will certainly get a lot less interesting. And this will hurt them in the long run. But like most mismanagement, it'll look good for the next quarter or two.
People forget that there wasn't even a mass exodus from Digg. Although we can pinpoint the exact day that Digg killed itself, it actually took a long time for everyone to eventually leave. People hedged their bets between platforms -- just as many people are doing now between Reddit and all the new alternatives.
This week on Lemmy actually feels very different from last week. There's some sort of critical mass that has been hit even if it's just some minuscule tiny fraction of the total traffic of Reddit.
Agree 100% on the critical mass. Last week I would visit a day later and sort by new, and there'd be maybe a page of stuff since my last visit. Now I am back to sorting by top day, because going through new would take hours.
I think it's not just more users that are here, but that the users who are here are invested now. It's no longer just a fun toy to hack around with, it's potentially a new home so we are starting to decorate :-)
We're not going to get the same numbers as Reddit, and that's a good thing. I don't want already users to leave. I want the smart ones to leave and come here. The ones who have something to say, the ones who can engage in discussion and debate, the type of people who made up reddit's early user base. The idiots who just want to scroll memes and TikTok style low effort videos all day and can't have a respectful conversation to save their own life, Reddit can have them. They install apps without question and don't use ad blockers so maybe Reddit can make some money of them. Best of luck with it.
Not only that, once reddit IPOs they are tied to wallstreet and must beat wallstreet quarterly estimates or else. They already had trouble turning a profit, they are going to pound the users with shit no one wants. That was already happening, but it's going to get worse.
It's almost a relief that I was (relatively) recently introduced to 3rd party apps that it made me care enough to move to Kbin in protest of Reddit's actions. The future there is bleak.
Been on Reddit for 4 years. Almost exclusively used the official app. I was completely irritated by the ads disguised as posts. @ChristianSelig posts about the API drama and I tried out a few of the 3PAs. What in the name of God was I ever doing on the official app?
I expect the bigger test will be when the API changes go into effect and third-party apps become unusable.
Personally, I have no plans or intention to use the native Reddit app. I may still browse the site on my desktop from time to time, but I’m intentionally making the shift to Lemmy as my go-to for mobile use… I’ll be happy when third-party apps for Lemmy are a little more stable and reliable so I don’t have to go through a mobile browser.
Even then, I don't expect a huge impact short term. Most redditors are lurkers and content consuming zombies, they will continue to happily consume content manufactured by professional content producers. A few who will notice the decline in quality content might look for alternatives.
That's simply not true, the difference between here and there is the sheer volume that produces the quality.
You also need that volume of users to get the breaking stories posted, curated and commented on - where there's a story and an expert commenting within minutes. And memes, of course :D
I can’t use the official app even if I wanted to. Most of my use is on LineageOS sans gapps. And with old.reddit.com gone I will be locked out completely.
Same. Reddit without Boost or other third party apps is borderline unusable. The official app is an ad- and telemetry infested piece of garbage, but if you are planning on selling user data, I guess that helps.
I still visit Reddit on desktop during work, it's often the top Google result for some of my niche questions, but on the other hand I'm pretty glad to have my year long death scrolling behavior cured.
I don't use Reddit on mobile anymore and Lemmy is simply not convenient enough with Jerboa's early stage of development, which means I spend about 90% less time using these apps compared to Boost. My productivity has skyrocketed.
The screenshot is a picture of visit duration, I would be interested to see the other statistics. Most Reddit users will return though once the sub-reddits open back up, which is why they are forcing it.
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