Incoming! A severe G4 Geomagnetic Storm is expected to arrive around 02:00 UTC Friday night / Saturday morning.
At least 5 Coronal Mass Ejections took place over the past 24 hours, directed towards Earth. These originated from a large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster (NOAA region 3664).
There is potential for disruption of communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations.
The CMEs ejected by the Sun are headed for earth, as shown in the stills from the animation at NOAA. The big merged CME should be here around 02:00 UTC Friday night / Saturday morning, which means good Aurora viewing for those in North America.
Let's keep in mind that we are approaching the peak of the current 11-year solar cycle #25. Hence, the increase in the number of sunspots, solar flares and CMEs in the past year. And there will more such events over the course of the next year.
We have experienced stronger cycles in the recent past as shown in the graph below. This cycle seems to be acting stronger than predictions and peaking earlier.
To relax before the G4 solar storm arrives, please take a look at this fascinating time-lapse video of the surface of the Sun. The video was created using images taken by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory SDO,.
Beautiful and frightening as it may appear, it is what provides the energy to sustain life on earth. The earth's magnetic field helps deflect dangerous flares and energetic particles away from earth and our atmosphere, and allows the good stuff to pass thru.
Peak Geomagnetic Activity is expected between 06 and 09 UTC with a Kp Index of 8.33 (G4 on the G-Scale).
"The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm.
The label 'K' comes from the German word 'Kennziffer' meaning 'characteristic digit.' The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938."
@AkaSci
Fun fact, I was visiting the Dominican Republic and we saw northern lights.
It was totally weird and I didn't find out that it was the solar storm until 20 years later when I learned about CME.
Here is an interesting artist's conception of a Heliophysics Map as it might have been drawn during the times of Columbus and other ancient explorers 😜
@AkaSci so this is why I fell while roller skating this week! The disruptions on the sun affected my balance and gravitational field, thus dooming me to land at an oblique angle on my right shoulder. “Thanks,” science!
If the Sun is shining where you are, you might be able snap a memorable shot like this of the Sun and the NOAA 3664 sunspot region using the filter that was used to watch the solar eclipse on April 8!
@AkaSci how long will it stay at this level and will there be more 'waves' in the next days? have a layer of cloud localy at my location and would like to see it with bare eyes.
@3c5x9
See post #6 for some timing info and keep an eye on https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
This will probably go on for the next 12+ hours. There might be another wave tomorrow night, although slightly weaker.
We are now in G5 territory! Both NOAA and the GFZ in Potsdam are reporting Kp index at 9 (G5). GFZ is the source of the index. This is happening far earlier than predicted. G5 conditions were first observed at Earth at 6:54 p.m. EDT (22:54 UTC).
Let's hope we get a terrific light show tonight and nothing more 🤞.
@drs1969
I can only imagine and enjoy it vicariously. It is overcast and raining here on the U.S. East Coast. Glad you are enjoying this to the hilt. And thanks for sharing your pics.
The serene/ferocious Sun ... just moments ago ... as imaged by the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in various wavelengths.
Any CMEs from region 3664 in the next few days will not strike earth as the region (at the 4 o'clock position) is rotating away from us. But other sunspot regions may become more active and start lobbing CMEs at us
It's been quite an experience for many who got to see and photograph the aurora borealis last night in shimmering magenta and green colors.
No major reports of damage or disruptions.
It's not over yet. The Kp index has stayed above 8 for over 15 hours. It hit 9 again (G5) this morning. It is forecast to decline steadily over the day but rise again to around 6 tonight.
Search for "aurora" and "solar storm" to see the wonderful images taken by the good folks here.
Sun and Earth, by XKCD.
And us Humans in between, enjoying its life-sustaining warmth. And Auroras.
Title text: "But we don't need to worry about the boiling masses sandwiching the thin layer in which we live, since we're so fragile and short-lived that it's unlikely to kill us before something else does! Wait, why doesn't that sound reassuring?"
Here is an image of last night's aurora over N. America as seen from space at 0658 UTC.
The image was taken by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) instrument onboard the NOAA-20 satellite, using its Day Night Band sensor (DNB).
The VIIRS DNB can image at very low levels of light at night in wavelengths between 0.5 – 0.9 µm (visible and some near-IR).
Most aurora emissions are at 90-150 km, but the reds last night were likely from higher altitudes.
Auroras are caused by emissions from O atoms and N2 molecules. Solar-origin electrons cause the energy states of O and N2 to rise which result in photon emissions at specific wavelengths.
O atoms below 200 km emit in the familiar green color. O atoms above 200 km emit in red. N2 near 200 km emits in blue, N2 below 100 km emits in reds and blues that mix to produce pink.
Intense solar storms like this one cause lower altitude N2 emissions.
The aurora forecast for tonight looks almost the same as last night.
The Geomagnetic Kp index is already at 7.67 (G4) and predicted to reach 9 (G5) again in the morning hours. Two sets of CMEs ejected yesterday will pass through earth in the next 12 hours, hopefully lighting up the sky again.
Happy aurora viewing!
Let's keep in mind that the camera catches auroras better than the human eye. So, let's keep 'em clicking and experiment with different exposures.
34 hours of evolution of the boiling surface of the Sun as seen in images taken by the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory SDO. Sunspot region 3664, which produced the brilliant light show on earth, is rotating away, while other regions are rotating in.
Also, shown is a synoptic map of the Sun identifying sunspot regions.
Note that the Sun has a synodic rotation period of 26.24 days at the equator, almost 38 days at the poles.
As sunspot region 3664 rotates away (it lobbed a parting flare at X3.4 at 08:37 UTC), other sunspot regions are rotating into view.
A new sunspot region rotating in from the other side emitted an X2.9 flare today at 14:38 UTC. It will not affect earth much but SWPC will be keeping an eye on such sunspots and flares as they rotate further and line up in the direction of earth.
Note that the Sun has a synodic rotation period of 26.24 days at the equator.
@mumuv42
Geomagnetic levels will be high tonight, although not as high as last night.
So, yes, auroras will light up again tonight, perhaps not as far south as last night. Let's keep an eye on the space weather forecast as we get closer to sunset. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Thanks to SpaceX Starlink we have never had so many satellites whizzing around in LEO (Low Earth Orbit) during such an event. Would think that the risk of loss of navigation control resulting in collisions and the potential for a Kessler Syndrome event is heightened during this period.
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