@juandesant@astrodon.social
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juandesant

@juandesant@astrodon.social

PhD in radio astronomy and VO; Joint ALMA Observatory Development Systems Engineer. Previously, Head of Software Product Management and Software Systems Engineer at SKAO (joined March 2014). I have worked for @iaacsic @ESO @almaobs @DataObsCL. He/him.

I try to boost only images with useful/meaningful alt-text. Might unboost after reviewing it…

Avatar: myself looking down, with a “crown” of lamps.

Background: Pen and paper sketch of ALMA by Olivia H. Wilkins.

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juandesant, to random
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Looking forward to @simon blog post about the latest OpenAI announcements😉

juandesant, to random
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Hi @dansup @dansup, I cannot login to Pixelfed.social since at least yesterday, anything going on?

kottke, to random
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A new LoTR movie is coming: Andy Serkis is starring and directing in Lord of the Rings: The Hunt for Gollum. Peter Jackson is producing and Fran Walsh & Philippa Boyens are writing the script. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/lord-of-the-rings-movie-2026-release-warner-bros-1235997102/

juandesant,
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@kottke every time I see a galore of epithets in these press releases I think of ChatGPT… maybe it was as inauthentic before, but now I cannot unsee (unread?) it…

NanoRaptor, to random
@NanoRaptor@bitbang.social avatar

If you like retro displays and simulation and blending now and then fun and prolific output go follow @MrmoTarius - that is all.

juandesant,
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@NanoRaptor @MrmoTarius done, looks like a great recommendation!

kottke, to random
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The Sky Was Purple and Red and Yellow and On Fire. I loved the aurora borealis takeover of social media this weekend. Here’s some of the best shots taken by folks all over the world. https://kottke.org/24/05/the-sky-was-purple-and-red-and-yellow-and-on-fire

juandesant,
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@kottke wow, those dutch mills look really nice with that stunning background…

astro_jcm, (edited ) to random
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Started boiling some Weißwurst without realising I'm all out of sweet mustard, and stores are closed today. Should I...
(a) Go out and buy mustard in a gas station.
(b) Use sriracha, the only other sauce I happen to have at home right now, and risk being deported from Germany.

juandesant,
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@astro_jcm süsse Senf, bitte!

mdkcore, to random
@mdkcore@hachyderm.io avatar

tar cvJf clothes.tar.xz clothes/

juandesant,
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@mdkcore love the use of the XZ format to represent a “transparent container”…

NanoRaptor, to random
@NanoRaptor@bitbang.social avatar

The one true USB3 connector.

juandesant,
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@NanoRaptor you missed the opportunity to “tobleronerize” it 😉

thomasfuchs, to random
@thomasfuchs@hachyderm.io avatar

Starlink train and also the sky is all weirdly purple for some reason

juandesant,
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@thomasfuchs cosmic reasons!

soviet, to random Spanish

Melinka. Isla Ascensión, Región de Aysén, Chile.

Mi favorita hasta el momento.
Una aurora en toda su magnitud :aaaa:

juandesant,
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@soviet ¡me encanta!

ognimaeb, to physics
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juandesant,
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@ognimaeb stunning!

juandesant, to random
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Is that today's Paranoid Android, or what? He sure does seem not to be having a good time…

juandesant, to random
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jbzfn, to c64
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Making 80s Computers Talk | 1980s Commodore Speech Synthesizer | Kari

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ip7K0CaC7Y

juandesant,
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@jbzfn the Currah speech synthesizer also existed for the Spectrum… and of course Macintalk was there from the first Mac. Of course, being 32/16 bit was almost cheating, compared to the other 80's computers…

astro_jcm, to Astro
@astro_jcm@mastodon.online avatar

Me getting mentally ready to be super jealous of the upcoming pics from those of you living at higher latitudes.

juandesant,
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juandesant,
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@astro_jcm BTW, are there calculations on how far north the aurora australis would be visible? Not much of a chance with light pollution in Santiago and the current cloud coverage, I guess…

juandesant,
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@astro_jcm thanks for the pointer to NOAA, I got this…

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

What is the power figure that is shown (peak of ~200 GW), the total energy input from the solar wind, or from the aurora processes themselves?

(Nerd side. note: that is more than 160 times the power required to activate a “flux capacitor”…)

juandesant,
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@lolopb @astro_jcm if you already could see the colours it means it is very powerful… the second photo I posted looked like a greyish moving cloud, and only when I took the long exposure picture (30 seconds) I could see the colours.

For the first photo (the rotated C shape) we could see the colours with our own eyes.

juandesant,
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@lolopb @astro_jcm if you set your iPhone on a tripod (or anything that ensure that the phone is still), you can enable much longer exposures (up to 30 seconds) in night mode… please try that!

My tripod for the aurora pictures was my car, and a boulder, respectively ;-)

juandesant,
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@lolopb @astro_jcm it might not be as powerful, but it should still be visible.

For your Fuji, set it to a high ISO (beyond 3600), wide aperture, and check between 5 and 30 seconds… best of luck!

brucelawson, to random
@brucelawson@vivaldi.net avatar

brb, emailing "You shouldn't need to know all the specifics of web accessibility, Susan. The Agency, however, should. When I had a central heating boiler installed, I didn't say to the gas engineer "I assume this conforms to BS8871, BS 2328 and the Don't Blow Up The Neighbourhood Directive 1993", because I trust that they would know the rules and adhere to them.

Sadly, web agencies don't have the equivalent of CORGI registration."

juandesant,
@juandesant@astrodon.social avatar

@brucelawson thankfully, gas boilers don't have to abide to the "Elastomeric parts for parenterals and for devices for pharmaceutical use” or the “Fork-lift trucks. Hook-on type fork arms and fork arm carriages. Mounting dimensions” dimensions…

(Sorry, you nerd-sniped me there… I actually looked up the Don’t Blow Up The Neighborhood Directive 1993…)

drdrang, to random
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juandesant,
@juandesant@astrodon.social avatar

@drdrang @kjhealy it took me a while to realize that the series is not the probability of the outcome never happening… but that for things that have a 1/n chance of happening on a given time… there is approximately a 1/e probability (bit worse than 1/3) that it will still not have happened after n tries, for n >= 5.

juandesant,
@juandesant@astrodon.social avatar

@drdrang @kjhealy and if you tabulate the first values…

| n | (1 - 1/n)^n |
| 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1/4 ≈ 0.25|
| 3 | 8/27 ≈ 0.29 |
| 4 | 81/256 ≈ 0.32 |
| 5 | 1024/3125 ≈ 0.33 |

You see that except for the sure case (1/1), the number is between 1/4 and approximately 1/3 of cases where you did not succeed after n tries. That is a lot… and explains things like why many IVF patients are not lucky, or need a lot of tries.

juandesant,
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@drdrang sorry if I did not myself clear.

I was misunderstanding the problem in that way, and found it very counter intuitive that when the number of trials goes to infinity, the convergence was not to one.

What I wanted to say is that for something that has a probability of 1/n with n larger than 2-3, a good approximation for the failure rate after n attempts is 1/3… But if you have more attempts, you have to fix the probability as you indicate in your answer.

juandesant,
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@drdrang Which means that for IVF, which has a typical success rate per attempt between 1/3 and 1/4, after 3-4 trials there is still around 1/3 chance of not succeeding…

I’m afraid the issue is close to my heart, I did the tabulation of [1-(1-Rational(1,3))**x for x in range(1,6+1)] a number of times… and for many reasons we stopped at attempt 2, and I still think it was the best decision.

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