MarvinTheMartian,
@MarvinTheMartian@mstdn.social avatar

A New Front: Ukraine's War on Russian Oil and the Power to Hurt
by
14:25

Over the last month, Ukraine has created a new front: at least ten drone attacks have targeted Russia's oil infrastructure, with substantial damage.

Will this give Ukraine additional leverage?

🇺🇸 🇺🇦
William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKp9RzIIWz4




ifilipau,

@MarvinTheMartian

Very insightful. First decent take on the topic.

elCelio,
@elCelio@mastodon.uno avatar

@ifilipau @MarvinTheMartian

I think it is only the beginning: and all the political and military leadership of know that they are on the 's list of people to be killed, and members of the special forces are in that list too.

If they don't feel the West is giving them enough support to win, as a last resort they will go after the political leaderhip of and himself.

If the Russians are not able to get rid of their dictator, someone else will do.

ifilipau,

@elCelio @MarvinTheMartian

It's not that simple, unfortunately. People often miss the fact that most military aid is actual aid (as in free). Few instances became public in the past, when Ukraine asked to buy stuff, but was refused, and received instead as free aid. In other words, for many types of weapons, Western politicians still maintain more controls over what weapons Ukraine receives.

P.S. This is why such deals are very important to Ukraine: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/01/04/norway-defense-sale-ukraine/

elCelio,
@elCelio@mastodon.uno avatar

@ifilipau @MarvinTheMartian
they'll kill then.

ifilipau,

@elCelio @MarvinTheMartian

The putin is only a logical product of the NKVD/KGB/FSB system. You need to kill off all of them, destroy the system, to remove the threat. (They are known for hunting "traitors" for decades.)

I just silently hope that at least Ukraine's campaign against russian oil/gas would continue, regardless of global oil/gas prices. Depriving the "KGB mafia state" of funds hopefully would have some positive effect on russia.

elCelio,
@elCelio@mastodon.uno avatar

@ifilipau @MarvinTheMartian Of course but:

  1. does not have a designated successor, killing him MAY start a power struggle in the that MAY be advantageous for Ukraine

  2. the political and military leadership of Ukraine doesn't care: they are already in the kill list of the Kremlin, some may think it is just worth and fair to take with them

If something like this happens, they will break a big taboo in international politics, that will reverberate around the world.

ifilipau,

@elCelio @MarvinTheMartian

It can't be a "big taboo" per se, since soviet russia & US did it all the time in 1950s-70s. (Or russia now in Africa.) It's a "taboo" only when "insignificant" countries do it.

P.S. The #2 by the way, I don't understand. Because Ukrainian elites certainly have the means, but we don't see yet any evidence of it happening. (POWs as hostages?) Also: kremlin actually promised to kill only Zelenskyy. Others might have been convinced that they could escape it.

elCelio,
@elCelio@mastodon.uno avatar

@ifilipau @MarvinTheMartian

of course.
has been struck by Milosevic dying in prison, Hussein being executed and Gaddafi being lynched.

how will Xi react, if putin, the leader of a nuclear power and UN SC P5, is assassinated?

elCelio,
@elCelio@mastodon.uno avatar

@ifilipau @MarvinTheMartian

  1. it's not happening now: in fact I said "as a last resort" and "if the West is not giving them enough to win".

Russians could have already killed , but after failing in the first days, I suppose there is a secret undertanding with the USA that they can't.
But if the USA support stops, is dead.

"The Kremlin promised": I think people like and his officers are not so stupid to believe to Kremlin's promises like a ...

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