This is going to give Ukraine a lot of breathing room. Not only does it take Wagner Group out of the picture, but Putin is going to bed to devote already thinly stretched military resources to try and contain a coup.
Long-term, this could be troubling. As fascist as Putin is, Prigozhin is a straight up Nazi. Russia somehow pushing even further to the right is a scary thought. Hopefully Prigozhin and Putin soften each other up enough to allow more progressive elements to consolidate power, but I'm not holding my breath.
I hope the infight between Putin and Prigozhin is nasty enough that the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps can give them both a run for their money.
Your scenario does not contemplate the crippled economy, with the oil spigot to Europe turned way down, as well as all other continuing sanctions and embargos, which is turning russia into an economic vassal of Beijing as we speak.
Prigo will never galvanize the same support and control that Putin has. This is a good thing for russia. People may actually be able to fight back. It's easier for the oppressed to fight back when the nation's military is split between Putin and Wagner. It's significantly easier when the propaganda machine loses its poster-child.
So who we cheering for on this one? I mean if they could destroy each other that’s ideal. Ukraine wins by confusion on the Russian side but I can’t imagine Prigozhin is better than Putin. Seems like trading same for same.
They are the same thing and there is no difference between them. Both are ruthless and barbaric. Nothing changes for Ukraine except for a brief opportunity to strike while the russians are in confusion.
No, and if you think this you aren't paying attention. There is a 0% chance Prigo can galvanize the same level of support and absolute control Putin has. This will be a devestating blow to the russian propaganda machine.
No, Russia has 6000 nukes. Only 1700 are actually ready to deploy, the rest are just sitting in storage.
And given the rampant corruption that has rotted Russia's military out, I wouldn't be surprised if most of them don't even work. Nuclear weapon maintenance is a great thing to skim money out of since nobody's expecting the nukes to actually be used.
Considering all we read last year about the deplorable condition of transport vehicles, medicine supplies, soldier equipment and food that were in storage until last year - due to the money not quite making it all the way down the chain throughout the years - I think it's pretty much a given.
I'm just cheering on for more Russian infighting. The Citizens of Russia have sooooo much work to do to fix their shit country. There's pretty much no good outcome for them in the short-term. But this could be great for Ukraine in the short-run, so that's the best we can hope for imho.
If anything, if this somehow speeds up an end to the war that could be a net positive for everyone. Like Ukraine, Russia cannot move forward in any real way until the war is concluded.
Vlad must be pissed that he’s being stressed the fuck out during the 3 day no poop challenge. It’s hard to keep the backdoor sealed when you're stressed out.
Cynical about the whole thing.
Because if this is for real and not political theater, it most definitely is a case of "meet the new boss, same as the old boss".
Or don't like it when one steps in the other's domain, and for a while now they've had an internal conflict of interests, which made overstepping inevitable.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A MACHINE TRANSLATION OF AN UNVERIFIED TELEGRAM POST
Source: PMC "Wagner" can directly subordinate to the President of the Russian Federation - one of the conditions of the deal with Prigozhin.
According to Cooperative sources, during the negotiations between Lukashenka and Yevgeny Prigozhin, a decision was made to directly subordinate the Wagner structures to Vladimir Putin. Mercenaries are no longer required to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
The criminal case against Prigogine will also be dropped.
There is no official confirmation of this information yet.
What is going on? It seems highly unlikely that they will both let bygones be bygones and just get back to business as usual, minus Shoigu. No one has challenged Putin like this before, and many people have been killed for much less. Unless Prigozhin is stupid he must know this. And it seems unlikely Putin was in on this scheme to get rid of the military leadership, since he could already have done that any time.
Was Prigozhin scared off by the reports of Kadyrov’s forces heading his way? Is he just stalling for time now while he tries to figure out how he and Wagner can survive?
Because in a twisted way, russian government is extremely legalistic, so their actions - or what they would ever even contemplate of doing and not doing - is tied up into Byzantine knots.
Because they are medieval in outlook, expressed in their admiration for "shows of strength" and their obsession for "saving face".
It is said that the same document in russian is nearly twice as long as its' translation in English, because of all the adornments and nuances. As I can't get the nuances in the words being exchanged and the commentaries around it, I wonder if what they say and what they mean has more leeway and is more open to interpretation than what we can pick up from here.
If this is true, Prigozhin, Putin, or MoD will be dead within a week. No way this will be sustainable. Prigozhin made himself the defacto #2 and defied the regime without consequences. Putin only got more time in office without civil war. It feels like this is far from over.
IMHO not the smartest move of Prigozyhin to stop now and close a deal. There are no guarantees that Putin won't stab him in the back as soon as he leaves Moscow. Why would he tolerate such behavior? The only thing Prigozyhin can do is push through.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A MACHINE TRANSLATION OF AN UNVERIFIED TELEGRAM POST.
❗️Prigozhin: We are deploying our columns
"We walked less than 200 km from Moscow during this time we did not shed a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now the moment has come when blood can be shed, therefore. Realizing all the responsibility that Russian blood will be shed on one of the sides. We we deploy our columns and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan," Prigozhin's new audio message says.
Vladimir Putin made an appeal where he called Prigozhin's rebellion a betrayal and a stab in the back. He did not mention the name of the founder of Wagner PMC
The day before, Prigozhin accused the Russian military leadership of rocket attacks on his Wagner PMC camps in the rear and killing his militants. After Putin's appeal, he said that the president was "deeply mistaken"
There is no independent confirmation of Prigozhin's accusations, the Ministry of Defense denies everything. FSB opened a criminal case on incitement to armed rebellion
Mercenaries from PMC "Wagner" led by Yevgeny
Prigozhin blocked military facilities in Rostov and Voronezh
The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a missile attack on the occupied Genichesk, from which more than 100 km to the front line
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