Maybe at -40 degrees if you leave your car outside in the weather. Granted I park my EV in my garage and the coldest its been since I’ve owned it has been maybe -10 degrees F (-24 degrees C).
So 20% capacity loss due to age
20% from age you’d only see after 12 or more years. If you’re charging at home instead of DC fast charging it will likely be less degradation that that even.