Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
cyborganism,

As a millennial in the middle class it feels like we’ve been in a recession since 2008.

CharlesDarwin,
@CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world avatar

IIRC, wages have been flat to down since the 1970s, so it’s likely this cuts across many generations, from the “greatest generation” on, and soon including generation alpha.

cyborganism,

It hasn’t been felt until the millennials, for sure. That’s when the rifts really started to widen. Around the early 2000’s

CharlesDarwin,
@CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world avatar

Eh, that’s not my experience. I saw what corporate downsizing and Ronnie Raygunism did to the boomers and some of their parents’ generation during the 80s. Many of us Gen Xers were very cynical about corporations as a result of early 90s recession (though some may have later forgot those lessons) and the growing corporate rule and the rise of things like Manpower and temp work - many of us chuckled when we saw the usual suspects rebranding this as the “gig economy” as if this was a good thing for workers.

Of course, many of our generation got burned, and burned hard, by the boom/bust cycles like the dot-com bubble and the real-estate speculation that came after. But then, so did older and younger generations.

When the poor and middle class suffers, it’s not like just one set of people that happened to be born between certain years and are lumped into one group (mostly for marketing purposes, by the way) are the only ones affected.

As someone else points out here, though, for the first time in a long time, though, real wages have gone up in the very recent past. If that is a trend, it would be a reversal of literally decades of it not going up. I suspect it is not, being the cynic I am, and eyeing things like AI and the automation it is/will be enabling. I also think the uptick is partly a result of Covid and the powers that be seek to reverse any gains ASAP.

AA5B,

Lots of bad news from media milking outrage for views and clicks, in the name of News

cyborganism,

Nah. More like employers/companies making it sound like their CEO is almost outside on the sidewalk begging for money for the company when it’s time for a end of year salary review or when negociating salaries when applying for a job.

CharlesDarwin, (edited )
@CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world avatar

I did like to see that Jon Stewart countered a recent author about how Gen Z has it the worst of any generation, ever, even if ever so gently. However, that author (John Della Volpe) was definitely old enough to know better - I think he is a boomer or Gen X - and I’m glad Jon didn’t just let him blow smoke the entire interview. Jon came back with some boomer trauma that they went through; I often reflect on the kind of trauma those that can remember the Great Depression or WWII might have had.

The point is that every generation has trauma and the clickbait type of stuff about how this or that generation is somehow magically different or some inflection point is just kind of silly in the broader context.

Suavevillain,
@Suavevillain@lemmy.world avatar

People can’t afford rent and food. The most Biden has done to address the corporate greed and price gouging is telling them to knock it off lol. The attempts at trying to gaslight people into believing the economy is good won’t work.

return2ozma,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

Biden claims he did this haha

Biden takes credit for Target grocery price cuts: ‘They’re answering the call’

cnbc.com/…/biden-takes-credit-for-target-grocery-…

riodoro1,

The GDP says you’re doing fine. Stop complaining that you have to live with you’re parents.

Belgdore,

No one cares that businesses are doing well if they aren’t paying their employees

Spazz,

It’s sad to see the conservative’s plan to dumb down America working so well

Bernie_Sandals, (edited )
@Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world avatar

I’m a Gen Z’er from the deep south, unions were never mentioned in our education once, neither was the labor movement, my friends learned what a union was from me, and the first time I ever learned of the concept of a union was from Wikipedia.

It’s definitely working, way too fucking well.

hark,
@hark@lemmy.world avatar

The majority of Americans know their situation sucks, they’re just not able to express it in numbers, probably because they’re busy trying to live their lives. These articles do nothing but smugly highlight that the numbers are tracking the wrong things. Unemployment being low doesn’t mean much if a huge chunk of employment is shitty gig work. The stock market being up doesn’t anything if over 90% of the stock market is owned by 10% of people. GDP doesn’t mean shit and a prime example of that is Canada having nearly 40% of their GDP being made up by overpriced housing, in that case it’s just people selling housing at each other and jacking up prices each time while renting it out at exorbitant rates. Not really much being produced there, certainly nothing that improves people’s lives (except speculators).

werefreeatlast,

But we are in recession. I got no money for nothing.

Cornpop,

Well it fucking is. Everyone is broke. No one is spending like they were a few years ago.

deft,

Lol people are feeling the recession regardless of what your numbers say.

secretlyaddictedtolinux, (edited )

This really misses the big problem. For many people, the costs that are most inelastic (like food and housing) are the ones with the most inflation. For people in financial situations that aren’t great, there aren’t easy ways to lower costs.

Inflation statistics like the CPI also grossly inaccurately measure what an accurate basket of good is by including many things that are frivolous and so it totally misses how people are feeling. Did the price of a large television go down slightly decreasing the overall inflation a bit? Yes, but I still need to buy incredibly expensive food. I don’t need to buy a TV. That makes me worried. I can’t cut down on food.

This leads to having to consider things like: should I try to move to an even smaller place (since my tiny place is incredibly expensive), which results in moving costs? Should I look for a better paying job and is it likely I will find that and what happens if my employer finds out and fires me because I am searching for a new job?

There are also large feelings of uncertainty about the economy and about inflation. For those who own property and purchased it a lower cost than the market rate, things are fine. For everyone else, it’s terrible.

Biden is doing a horrible job of being realistic about how people feel about these things. He is looking at ivory tower economic statistics and either he doesn’t get it or isn’t acknowledge it. The message from him is that he’s doing a good job and things are improving. That isn’t reassuring. It feels like a “let them eat cake” mentality. I’d much rather have him say “yes, certain things in the economy are problematic” and then either say how they will be improved or just bluntly say the best option is to not do anything because doing things (like market interference) is potentially worse.

I support the rights of trans people, and I like some of Biden’s ideas, however for most lower middle class people who are completely stressed out, Biden seems like a terrible option. Even for lower middle class people who dislike Trump, they at least view him as a realist. I am left not knowing if Biden is ignorant of how people who don’t own homes are feeling or if Biden is being so defensive with his record that he seems out of touch, but either way, he will definitely lose at his current trajectory.

He keeps not addressing this problem and it’s a big problem for many voters, probably over half of all swing voters are affected by this. I wish I could advise Biden on what to say and do to improve his poll numbers, because many of the problems that bother large segments of the voters are things that could be easily resolved through the executive office without new laws while adhering to classical economic theory, but he’s not going to make the needed changes, I have no way of suggesting things except sending a letter that will not be read but instead will just be summarized as a view (like “letter received, opinion is inflation is bad”).

He is going to keep relying on ivory tower economic statistics because fundamentally he’s a career politician, he believes his bureaucrats or lacks the ability to understand the real experiences behind the data, and Trump is going to swoop right in and pluck every disaffected swing voter or disaffected Democrat he doesn’t reach. The fact that Biden is also doing cool or nice or interesting things in terms of other policy choices doesn’t somehow make up for this major weakness in ignoring this.

The fact that The Guardian is referring to the public’s “misconceptions” highlights how journalists and also politicians just regurgitate erudite statistics without reflecting on their real world implication, as though regular voters were just wrong or stupid. This is also a problem of Democrats at large who don’t know how to take academic research and information and look to the real-world meaning of it and then communicate effectively with regular people or implement practical policies based on this data.

So yeah, Biden will definitely lose. Trans people should figure out how to organize now for possible fascism, which sucks. They should figure out how to technologically, emotionally, and organizationally prepare for a worse case scenario. I can’t fathom Biden would win.

crazyCat,

Great write up, professional commentators should quote your take.

bouldering_barista,

I completely respect your points and opinions here. Trying to be a realist myself… I don’t see Trump doing shite to help the average American though economically. He’ll help big oil, wall street execs, and he’ll keep fueling the divide over social issues.

Let’s be real, trump doesn’t care about us and it’s worth reminding voters of that.

cryostars,

Good little write-up. I was just thinking along these lines today. It’s a real shame Biden didn’t try just a little harder to connect with the working class.

SupahRevs,

His state of the union definitely was pro-working class. A couple quotes from that speech: “A future where the days of trickle-down economics are over and the wealthy and biggest corporations no longer get all the breaks.” “America’s comeback is building a future of American possibilities, building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down, investing in all of America, in all Americans to make sure everyone has a fair shot and we leave no one behind!”

GoofSchmoofer,
@GoofSchmoofer@lemmy.world avatar

This is a good write up thanks.

What bothers me is that in his state of the union address he spent time talking about junk fees with Ticketmaster et. al. (which is a problem) yet never really touched on the bigger problem of housing costs. Nor is there any real push by his administration or the Democrats to address this issue any time soon. Like you I don’t know if this is intentional or ignorance due to his advisors.

It’s a frustrating place to be because I know that Trump gives even less of a shit about the “poors” and would make things even worse. So a large part of this country’s population will sit in the status quo for a minimum of 4 more years hoping that the next round of elections will bring in something new and progressive.

lengau,

FWIW, the Biden administration is doing a decent amount of behind the scenes work on housing costs, both directly (funding low income housing) and indirectly (incentivising cities to change laws that decrease supply and prop up the local landlords). Some of the reasons (IMO) he doesn’t talk much about this are:

  1. Small-scale landlords are a decent chunk of the Democrats’ donor base. So although this isn’t going to significantly negatively affect small-scale landlords (not that I’d care if it did - it just isn’t), too much messaging on that front could have a negative effect on donations.
  2. Some of the least reliable voters that the Democrats are depending on this year are sufficiently leftist to dislike any attempt that isn’t fully public housing. And none of what the Biden administration is doing will result in massive swathes of public housing. Some places might get some at the margins, but mostly what’s happening is that local governments are working with non-profits to provide more affordable housing, using the influx of federal cash to make it happen. Messaging here needs to be very careful not to give these folks an excuse not to vote.
  3. Many of the voters who are (somehow…) on the fence between Biden and Trump are also very NIMBY. So if someone from the Biden administration were to come to their town and say “Joe did this!” that could actually dissuade some undecided voters.

Is it stupid? Absolutely!

Is Biden doing enough on housing? Definitely not!

But a big chunk of what he is doing is flying under the radar, partially because they’re not advertising it and partially because it takes longer than just one presidential term for these kinds of projects to make it to fruition. The first development in my city that took advantage of Biden administration policies finally broke ground in September. The first actual affordable unit to come out of it will be available in 2025.

GoofSchmoofer,
@GoofSchmoofer@lemmy.world avatar

It’s good to know that this administration is doing something to help directly or indirectly. And if there is a constant in the world of American politics its Democrats don’t have a clue how to sell their agenda or legislative wins to the public.

But it doesn’t have to be that way. There has to be smart people that would want to work with this reelection campaign that can craft sound bites and advertising that promotes what they have done. And do it in a way that isn’t scary to the donor base.

secretlyaddictedtolinux, (edited )

Trump lies constantly but he’s also very blunt and realistic about problems (as long as he can disclaim responsibility for their cause). Do you think Trump will avoid talking about this as it gets closer to election time? No, he’s going to be blunt and realistic and pragmatic sounding and Biden will come off as out of touch to the incredibly large base of quiet regular lower middle class and middle class people affected by this. Probably 40% of the vote will be won based on how people are feeling about this and Biden is responding to that by saying “Actually, you’re feelings about the economy are invalid because according to my policy wonks, the economic data is good.” It’s insulting and enraging to the people who are struggling. Many lower middle class and middle class people don’t care that much about abortion or trans issues or whether Trump is a pathological liar being paid by a foreign country to destabilize America. They just want to be able to pay their bills and not be so damned stressed out. Biden absolutely does not get it. This is also the fault of the officials surrounding Biden who should be doing a better job of addressing these problems. Biden is very old and generously ran against Trump out of kindness because he knew he’d be more likely to win. The people around him should be addressing this, the DC insiders and people he took with him into office, and no one addresses the problem or crafts policy. This is an easy win for Trump and he knows it, Trump is not stupid contrary to what many want to imply, he’s enormously intelligent and just mean at times and cruel towards many minorities, but Trump needs to do barely anything to win at this point. You don’t get into Wharton as an idiot, even if you come from money, so liberals who want to claim he’s stupid are doing themselves a disservice by underestimating Trump. Trump is greedy and corrupt and cruel and incredibly intelligent, and if you don’t get the fourth part you miss the threat. Trump also at times has good intentions and people sense that, which is also a threat because he doesn’t seem completely disingenuous. Biden’s campaign is like the Titanic in a field of icebergs and all Trump has to do is just wait. For Biden to win, he’d have to make a lot of changes which he should have done over a year ago, and based on the team around him that hasn’t dealt with the problems correctly, he’s probably not going to make the right choices on this. If he makes superficial meaningless gestures on this issues in a last minute hail mary pass, it’s not going to matter. Voters aren’t stupid. I wish I could write Biden or his team and tell them what they should do, but I’m some nobody. No one would care.

Papergeist,

In the past, I have been a proponent of learning to cook. Meal prep can save you money, and it tastes better than mickey dee’s. I still believe this, but the bill at the grocery store is making it more and more difficult.

So now, I’ve been researching gardening and I hope i can save money by growing my own vegetables. I think there are ways to get it going without spending a ton of money. Especially by using reclaimed materials that are free or close to it.

The issue that concerns me is the amount of time it takes to get the compost pile going. There will be upfront costs if your soil is shit and needs to be amended. Which defeats the entire purpose of growing your own food.

It sorta feels like we’re fucked whichever direction we look.

militaryintelligence,

It’s not a recession, it’s outright class warfare.

theotherverion,

Sp500 and also nasdaq went up which are quite good news.

shortwavesurfer,

The big problem is that people are thinking in the wrong monetary units. While you’re getting paid in a constantly depreciating fiat currency, gold has been perfectly stable, and one ounce of gold still equals one ounce of gold. And so the crazy people in Washington can’t inflate it away.

DarkCloud,

It is a recession for the bottom majority of the country… That’s what happens when economic growth is only benefiting the top half …

It is a recession for many folks, and that’s a real problem that pretending it’s not happening won’t erase for them.

nondescripthandle,

Everything costs more, housing prices near me still rising, and my wage stays the same. If this is what a good economy looks like then give me a bad one.

randon31415,

So everything would be the same, but you wouldn’t have a wage.

aDuckk,

It gets worse either way, the only good times for us are when things are stable. But stability is worse than failure to someone whose occupation is Shareholder.

Passerby6497,

Having lived through 2008, you keep that wish to yourself.

Aermis,

How did that impact you? For me as a union electrician that meant members sitting for upwards of 2 years, with over 1500 people unemployed on the books in my local hall.

Right now there’s 800, most since 2008 recession, never going above 300 or so since then. I don’t know what a recession means for anyone else, but for me it’s not having a job and income. But this one is worse, because while the pay is more since 2008, everything costs triple since then.

blaine,

I bought my first house in 2009 - $125,000 on an income of $45,000. I even got a first time homebuyer credit of ~$8,000 to help make the purchase easier.

I make a little over $200,000 today, and I’m completely priced out of the market. I doubt I’ll ever own a home again and am currently living in a rundown old sailboat.

I’d take 2008 over this economy any day of the week!

SparrowRanjitScaur,

Do you live in the Bay area? I’m guessing you’ve ruled out small condos/townhomes? Why did you sell your original house and not buy a new one?

Thrashy,
@Thrashy@lemmy.world avatar

Good for you. In 2008 I went from having standing offers for paid internships at a half-dozen architecture firms to not knowing of a single open entry-level position in a 500 mile radius, and it stayed that way for almost three years. I graduated in 2010 and spent the next year mostly-unemployed in my parents’ spare bedroom, applying to every listing for a fresh-out position nationwide and not getting so much an automated courtesy email to let me know my resume didn’t make it the top of the pile of hundreds of others doing the exact same thing. I spent a year working for less than minimum wage as an illegally-misclassified “contractor” sorting mail and running errands, just to get an architecture firm on my resume. My best friend from architecture school became a barista and joined the National Guard to cover his student loan payments, and didn’t land a job in the field he spent five years training to enter for another five years.

Inflation sucks right now, but this is a fucking cakewalk compared to the Great Recession. Lucky for you that you were in a position to capitalize on the misfortune of others, but don’t forget for a second that millions of us went through years of misery.

Fades,

Economy health does not equate to cheap fuckin groceries and gas.

The goddamn monopolies are fleecing us because they can, that’s not the economy’s fault, you’re just literally taking their lies/excuses as fact.

Your comment screams naivety. You may think you want a bad one but the rest of us know we don’t.

transientpunk,
@transientpunk@sh.itjust.works avatar

While your comment is dismissive and arrogant, you make a good point (even if it’s not the point you intended).

The metrics we use the show the health of our economy do not reflect the economic circumstances of the average citizen, and that’s a real problem.

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