beadsland, 6 months ago

Third week of Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG wave. Last week's CDC Nowcast estimated third of samples were Eris EG.5.1 descendants—with Eris scion HV.1 at ¼ of samples.

For 3-week GISAID sequences, Eris EG.5.1 fam now all but half share. Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 fam below ⅒. Arcturus XBB.1.16 fam now below ⅕.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #CDC #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearAMask #BetterMasks

CDC's Variant Nowcast showing weighted estimated distribution of variants over fortnights ending 7/22/23 thru 9/30/23, with model-projected estimates for following two fortnights. Proportional stacked bar chart, where each color represents a different variant, inclusive of those descendants not otherwise broken out. Kraken XBB.1.5 (indigo) was dominant through May. Now crowded out by Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash), EG.5 (peach, incl. Eris EG.5.1), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover). Meanwhile variant Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue), broken out two weeks ago, continues to grow quickly, with likewise recent Kraken dot70 scion GK.1.1 (light aqua) and legacy Omicron-2 descendant CH.1.1 (hazel) are also growing. XBB.1.5 estimated at 3.9%, 1.2%, and 0.6% vs. 4.3% fortnight of 9/16, for average -43% biweekly drop in estimated share. GK.1.1 at 1.5%, 1.7%, and 1.8% vs. 1.2%, for avg. +15% gain in share. FL.1.5.1 at 11.6%, 12.3%, 12.0% vs. 10.8%, for avg +4% gain in est. share. EG.5 at 24.3%, 24.0%, and 21.9% vs. 23.3%, for avg -2% loss in est. share. HK.3 at 1.9%, 4.1%, and 7.5% vs. 1.2%, for avg. +86% gain in share. HV.1 at 12.5%, 18.2%, and 25.2% vs. 8.0%, for avg. +47% gain in share. XBB.1.16.6 at 10.2%, 10.4%, and 9.2% vs. 10.8%, for avg -5% loss in share. CH.1.1 at 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.8% vs. 0.5%, for avg +18% gain in share. ALT-text by beadsland on Ko-fi.