mivox, (edited ) to random
@mivox@mivox.net avatar

Your friendly periodic reminder that

Roughly 2000 people a week are still dying of in the US.

And as far as I know, there is no specific count being tracked of people dying of post-Covid cardiac events & strokes, so the actual total of Covid-related deaths is likely much higher.

currentbias, (edited )
@currentbias@open-source-eschaton.net avatar

@mivox, @beadsland is tracking these under :

https://disabled.social/@beadsland/112028469044744368

beadsland, to random

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent mid-Oct—next update due this Wed.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111326660582180098

beadsland,

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared three summers ago—as fewer & fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for near a year—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

beadsland,

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, near one in five pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 70%.

Weekly average ~85 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

beadsland,

Some 249 (+3) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 269 (-2) counties reporting any PICU capacity, near one in four are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above*):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%*
⒉ Raleigh, WV ≥150%*
⒊ Androscoggin, ME ≥150%*

⒋ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒌ Barton, KS ≥150%
⒍ Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK ≥133⅓%
⒎ San Juan, UT ≥133⅓%
⒏ Lewis and Clark, MT ≥150%

⒐ Gwinnett, GA—150%

⒑ Aroostook, ME—129%

  • Current map omits counties with pediatric patients but no staffed pediatric beds.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above*—counties with four or fewer PICU patients omitted):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%*

⒉ DeKalb, GA—101%

⒊ Jefferson, TX—100%
⒋ Brazos, TX—100%
⒌ Cameron, TX—100%

⒍ Hamilton, TN—99%
⒎ Spartanburg, SC—98%
⒏ Caddo Parish, LA—98%
⒐ Durham, NC—98%
⒑ Anchorage Muni, AK—98%

  • Current map omits counties w/ PICU patients but no staffed PICU beds.

❖

beadsland, to random

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent mid-Oct—next update due November 8.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111286538401927534

beadsland,

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared three summers ago—as fewer & fewer professionals have been available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been further elevated for months now—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

beadsland,

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, near one in five pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 70%.

Weekly average ~90 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

beadsland,

Some 246 (+9) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 271 (--) counties reporting any PICU capacity, over one in five are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Barton, KS ≥150%
⒊ Dawson, NE ≥133⅓%

Idaho—138%

⒋ Fairfax, VA—114%

⒌ Collin, TX—100%
⒍ Buncombe, NC—100%
⒎ Somerset, NJ—100%
⒏ Cleveland, OK—100%
⒐ St. Lucie, FL—100%
⒑ Anoka, MN—100%

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above—counties with four or fewer PICU patients omitted):

⒈ Ada, ID ≥150%

⒉ Jefferson, TX—100%
⒊ Brazos, TX—100%
⒋ Cuyahoga, OH—100%
⒌ Cameron, TX—100%

⒍ Chatham, GA—98%
⒎ Miami-Dade, FL—98%
⒏ Nueces, TX—97%
⒐ Charlottesville city, VA—96%
⒑ Durham, NC—96%

❖

beadsland,

Some 51 (+1) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 208 (+10)—near 8⅔% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—near one in six are full or near full.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Montgomery, IL ≥150%
⒊ Barton, KS ≥150%
⒋ Smyth, VA ≥150%

⒌ Marshall, KY—136%

⒍ Wise, VA—112%
⒎ Yuma, AZ—107%
⒏ Bear Lake, ID—107%
⒐ Guam, GU—106%
⒑ Buchanan, MO—105%

❖

beadsland,

Counties by adult ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above):

⒈ Dearborn, IN—108%
⒉ Campbell, KY—108%

⒊ Suffolk city, VA—106%

⒋ Boone, KY—102%
⒌ Alachua, FL—102%
⒍ Stearns, MN—102%

⒎ Bell, TX—100%
⒏ Brazos, TX—100%
⒐ Lynchburg city, VA—100%
⒑ Muskegon, MI—100%

❖

beadsland,

Third week of Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG wave. Last week's CDC Nowcast estimated third of samples were Eris EG.5.1 descendants—with Eris scion HV.1 at ¼ of samples.

For 3-week GISAID sequences, Eris EG.5.1 fam now all but half share. Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 fam below ⅒. Arcturus XBB.1.16 fam now below ⅕.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

CDC's Variant Nowcast showing weighted estimated distribution of variants over fortnights ending 7/22/23 thru 9/30/23, with model-projected estimates for following two fortnights. Proportional stacked bar chart, where each color represents a different variant, inclusive of those descendants not otherwise broken out. Kraken XBB.1.5 (indigo) was dominant through May. Now crowded out by Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash), EG.5 (peach, incl. Eris EG.5.1), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss), Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover). Meanwhile variant Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue), broken out two weeks ago, continues to grow quickly, with likewise recent Kraken dot70 scion GK.1.1 (light aqua) and legacy Omicron-2 descendant CH.1.1 (hazel) are also growing. XBB.1.5 estimated at 3.9%, 1.2%, and 0.6% vs. 4.3% fortnight of 9/16, for average -43% biweekly drop in estimated share. GK.1.1 at 1.5%, 1.7%, and 1.8% vs. 1.2%, for avg. +15% gain in share. FL.1.5.1 at 11.6%, 12.3%, 12.0% vs. 10.8%, for avg +4% gain in est. share. EG.5 at 24.3%, 24.0%, and 21.9% vs. 23.3%, for avg -2% loss in est. share. HK.3 at 1.9%, 4.1%, and 7.5% vs. 1.2%, for avg. +86% gain in share. HV.1 at 12.5%, 18.2%, and 25.2% vs. 8.0%, for avg. +47% gain in share. XBB.1.16.6 at 10.2%, 10.4%, and 9.2% vs. 10.8%, for avg -5% loss in share. CH.1.1 at 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.8% vs. 0.5%, for avg +18% gain in share. ALT-text by beadsland on Ko-fi.

beadsland,

After 12 weeks, CDC finally had estimates for NW; still not for New Eng; dropped Middle South again 2 wks prior.

Eris dot6 child HV.1 is between ⅕–⅓ share in all tracked regions, w/ undifferentiated Eris fam EG.5 another ⅙–⅓ share.

Fornax between ¹⁄₁₁–⅕ share all but south coast.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for charts.]

❖

Map: Nowcast Estimates for 10/15/2023 - 10/28/2023 by HHS Region Source: Centers for Disease Control Map shows pie charts for each of 10 regions, reflecting regional estimated proportions for specimens collected two weeks ending 10/14/2023. Bold annotation overwrites map, reading "Nowcast estimates are only available for regions 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10." Regions 1 (New England) and 6 (Middle South) are empty grey. Dominant strains by region: NY/NJ: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 27.2%), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 20.5%), and Eris fam EG.5 (peach 18.3%). Mid-Atlantic: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 31.3%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 21.1%), and Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 13.1%). Southwest: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 28.3%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 18.2%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 14.5%). Great Lakes: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 22.9%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 22.4%), and Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss 8.8%). Lower Midwest: Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 28.6%), Eris fam EG.5 (peach 20.6%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 9.8%). Mtn/Dakotas: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 24.8%), Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 21.0%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 12.3%). Southwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 29.0%), Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 19.5%), and Eris dot1 child HK.3 (dark pastel blue). Northwest: Eris fam EG.5 (peach 23.5%), Eris dot6 child HV.1 (limed ash 23.3%), and Arcturus dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover 9.3%). ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.

beadsland,

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC ended excess death reporting Sep 27.]

❖

Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+10K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+18K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+14K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

beadsland,

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Final mortality data for 2020—released on Friday—reveals spike in accidental deaths driven by poisonings & exposure to noxious substances.

[CDC data for 2021 due this year.]

❖

Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2020. Chart is blank 2021 to 2022. Legend: • Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (up 32.9% btw. 2019 & 2020) [~87K total in 2020] • Motor vehicle accidents (up 8.4%) [42K] • Falls (up 6.8%) [42K] • Accidental hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (down -4.1%) [7K] • Accidental drowning and submersion (up 13.1%) [4K] • Accidental exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (up 9.6%) [3K] • Accidental discharge of firearms (up 10.1%) [½K] • All other unintentional injuries (down -1.2%) [15K] [A table below the legend ranks these items by rate of change.] Captions: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. It took nearly thirty-three months to release final data for 2020. Data for 2021 remains significantly overdue. ---- Despite popular conjecture, the observed sharp increase in accidental deaths between 2019 and 2020 was not due to motor vehicle accidents. Rather, accidental poisonings—up by a third over the prior year—account for nearly all the increase in elevated deaths by accidental causes.

beadsland,

Per WHO, every 12 minutes four people die of acute covid. Three of those deaths are in the United States.

Entering April, for every three covid deaths, U.S. saw another excess death not attributed to covid.

The emergency is over—covid is not done with us.

[Shares of death advance as uptick in reporting.]

❖

Chart: U.S. Share of 28-Day Covid Deaths Data: WHO (via Our World in Data), NCHS (via CDC), official srcs (via Wikipedia) [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Shows covid 28-day mortality as reported for the U.S. as share of G8, G20, and global 28-day mortality, for 3 years through Oct 21, 2023, this being the most recent date on which at least 50% of world population was represented in weekly reporting (see note regarding ◇ data points, below). Share of population for each comparison is provided for reference. With the end of PHE aggregate tracking, U.S. ceased reporting covid deaths to WHO. After 5/14/23, chart uses provisional covid deaths from NCHS. ◇ data points represent sum population (via Wikipedia) of those countries that reported at least one death in prior week, as percentage of world pop. [Down to near 60% as of July. Was 90% last August.] 7-day avg of U.S. share of G8 covid deaths at 81.2%, on an upward trajectory, well exceeding share of pop. (~38%). Same date last year, share of G8 covid deaths was 41.2%, jaggedly climbing toward winter. Avg. U.S. share of G20 covid deaths now 61.2% (vs. ~7% of G20 population). Same date last year: 23.7%. U.S. share of global parallels: now 62.0% (vs. ~4% of pop.). This date last year, U.S. share of global covid deaths was 24.5%. All three metrics were near or below respective populations roughly May–Aug 2021; thereafter have been profoundly higher than population but for few troughs, including a data dump by China in May 2023.

beadsland, to random

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent mid-Oct—next update due November 8.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer & fewer have been staffing our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]
Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/111247100832074241

beadsland,

Some 50 (-1) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 198 (-6)—over 8⅛% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—over one in six are full or near full.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Chatham, GA ≥150%
⒊ Barton, KS ≥150%
⒋ Marshall, KY ≥150%

⒌ Smyth, VA—122%
⒍ Wise, VA—119%

⒎ Yuma, AZ—108%
⒏ Buchanan, MO—108%
⒐ Kenton, KY—107%
⒑ Boone, KY—105%

❖

beadsland,

Counties by adult ICU capacity (circle-hatched on map above):

⒈ Chatham, GA ≥150%
⒉ Marshall, KY ≥150%

⒊ Montgomery, AL—103%

⒋ Alachua, FL—100%

⒌ Fayette, GA—100%
⒍ Stearns, MN—100%
⒎ Lynchburg city, VA—100%
⒏ Muskegon, MI—100%
⒐ Anoka, MN—100%
⒑ Jackson, MS—100%

❖

beadsland,

Second week of Hyperion-2 XBB.1.9.2/EG wave, CDC Nowcast estimates third of samples are Eris EG.5.1 descendants—with Eris scion HV.1 at ¼ of samples.

For 3-week GISAID sequences, Hyperion-2 near half share, with Eris fam over ⅖. Hyperion XBB.1.9.1 fam down to ⅒. Arcturus XBB.1.16 fam still over ⅕.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖

Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 21-DAY TRENDS Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan) Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 21 days | Updated on 10/27/23 3:39:40 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID Bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state. Data has been filtered to show dozens of Pangolin subvariants of XBB.1.9, including parent. Top subvariants: Eris dot6 kid HV.1 (33.00%), Eris dot1 EG.5.1.1. (13.08%), Eris EG.5.1 (12.15%), Eris dot1 kid HK.3 (8.95%), Eris dot6 EG.5.1.6 (5.65%). Raj has standardized bubbles to red (XBB.1.9.2*, incl. EG & HV), although some newer pango aliases may still be getting unique colors assigned by Tableau. Bubbles largest and most prominent for: HV.1 (red) for New York (85), California (57), Texas (36), Minnesota, Washington, New Jersey, Arizona, and a North state; HK.3 (red) for New York and California; EG.5.1.1 (red) for California, New York, and Minnesota; EG.5.1.3 (red) for California; EG.5.1 (red) for Minnesota, EG.5.1.3 (red) for California, EG.5.1.4 (red) for New York. Dozens of additional smaller bubbles for various variants and states.

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