"A growing number of climate analysts believe that 2023 may be recorded as the year in which annual #emissions reached a pinnacle before the global fossil fuel economy begins a terminal decline.
“It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us,” said Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA."
" The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has also predicted that global oil demand will continue to grow out to 2045, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years."
But the electric vehicle forecasts were “wildly wrong year after year” in what appears to be an “underhand attempt by oil producers to persuade investors and governments that fossil fuels have a future”.
"#CleanEnergy is often now the least expensive option, explaining some of the growth. Nations also adopted policies that support renewables, some citing energy security concerns, according to the International Energy Agency. These factors countered high interest rates and persistent challenges in getting materials and components in many places."
"But 2024 could see these emissions begin to decline for the first time, driven mainly by the unprecedented expansion of renewable energy and the shift to electric vehicles.
“They’re starting to grow at the pace where they outpace energy demand growth,” says Claire Fyson at Climate Analytics, a German think tank. “At that point, you start displacing fossil fuel growth.”"
"One of the most striking findings in this year’s outlook is that global energy-related CO2 emissions could peak as soon as this year – and by 2025 at the latest."
"The inertia behind this trend toward lower #emissions is so immense that even politics can only slow it down, not stop it. Many of the worst-case climate scenarios imagined in past decades are now much less likely.
Still, this means that humanity is adding to the total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — and doing so at close to its fastest pace ever."
We're at a plateau already, and away from the breakneck emissions increase of the 20th century.
The only reason peak fossil fuel hasn't happened yet is the energy mix in developing countries. There's still time to remedy that.
"If rich nations don't provide the funding for #CleanEnergy to fuel their growth, oil producers and their allies stand with chequebooks ready for the dirty alternative."
@CelloMomOnCars I hope you're right! I just see my country
(Canada) keep subsidizing oil. I see Alberta (the oil province) resisting HARD.
I was also under the impression that deployment of photovoltaics and wind wasn't enough, you also need the storage capacity that goes with it. Are we able to produce the batteries we need at the speed we need?
O Canada.
Or rather, Oh Alberta. But think about it from their perspective: They're resisting because the oil and gas revenue is what they've got. They might resist a lot less if the rest of Canada comes up with a realistic plan to wean them off the dependence.
A large number of batteries are about to come online, in people's cars. There are already places that let you do V2G - vehicle to grid transfers. Cool stuff!
@CelloMomOnCars yeah, if only they weren't being swept up in the American red populist rhetoric :(
Yeah, that's a pretty good point about the EV batteries. And hopefully we can have a couple of breakthroughs to get better capacity and less impactful production lines for them!
it's possible to bypass the political rhetoric though, as money speaks louder and clearer 🙂
This is how red Texas ends up being the wind capital of the United States, and coal state Wyoming is not far behind.
Alberta has pretty good solar potential and some wind as well, but the solution doesn't have to be energy only.
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