Today there is a high (level 5/5) risk for all modes of severe weather across the south central plains, including the potential for several cyclic supercells and long-track tornadoes.
One thing I miss about the #WxTwitter community is that there were handful of stats folks who could relay the last time we had a high risk day. Relying entirely on my memory, but it seems like it's been at least a year or two.
Watching today's outbreak from a distance. Too many pressing deadlines at work, plus the April 26 outbreak ~week ago gave me my fill for destructive tornadoes for a while. Not something I ever desire to see in the least, and today could be quite bad in that regard. I may be able to get out on Wednesday for local spotting if the need arises.
I guess it is worth noting that we aren't entirely out of the woods locally. It's easy to zero in on the bullseye for the threat area, but we do have a 10% risk for tornadoes locally in NW Arkansas, greatest risk after midnight as the storm system moves through.
From a climatological standpoint, most of the strongest storm systems in NWA are nocturnal, having formed during afternoon heating on the plains and spreading east through the evening and overnight. Usually brief QLCS tornadoes. #arwx
The latest Day 1 forecast from the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the moderate risk east into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, approaching the Missouri and Arkansas state lines. This reflects the increased risk for strong, damaging winds as storms move east overnight.
This doesn't change my plans other than I'll either stay awake or set an alarm to go off around the ETA for the storm complex.
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