Has the Trump campaign coordinated with the Netanyahu government to keep the war in Gaza going because it hurts President Biden's re-election prospects?
So, this probably feels like a wild conspiracy theory, but hear me out. My two touchpoints are the 1980 "October Surprise" theory, which is not well evidenced and may or may not have happened. The other is 2016 Russian election interference, involving the Trump campaign itself. In both, communication between a presidential campaign and a foreign government was indirect, murky, and unclear.
I wish I believed that the Trump campaign was above doing this kind of meddling, but I don't. I could definitely believe that the campaign would put the lives of non-Americans and some Americans at risk in order to win the election in November. That may say more about me and my poor opinion of the campaign rather than the campaign itself.
All that said, Trump himself has said that Israel should get the war over soon. He was ambiguous about how to do that, which is kind of creepy. But even if the war might be harming his opponent's campaign, Israel has committed the one unforgivable sin in the Trump universe: becoming unpopular.
I guess there's also the question of whether the war is actually bad for Biden. I'm not sure that's the case; I haven't done much research on it. It sure seems that way to me personally, but that's not necessarily backed up with data.
So, the question becomes: if they believe that the war is bad for Biden, would members of the Trump campaign try to coordinate with the Netanyahu government to drag out the war, even over the stated objections of the candidate? I am just not sure, so I would give this prediction a qualified no. I don't think it's impossible, but I don't think it would happen.
@jamesmarshall brought up the fact that other countries are involved in the war, like Russia, and they may have connections to US presidential campaigns or similar motivations. That's probably a fair point.
The Trump campaign wouldn’t hesitate to coordinate with Netanyahu. They are like-minded authoritarians.
Netanyahu has his own political reasons for prolonging the war. Whenever the war stops, he will face an election and loses. After he loses, he faces criminal charges.
Because of the second, I believe the first is inconsequential in this matter.
@evan Occam's razor says Netanyahu is actually extending the war for reasons of internal Israeli politics (though it's a boon for his allies like Trump and probably Putin). Netanyahu is clinging to power, if he doesn't appease the religious fundamentalists who are keeping him in power he'll not only lose his job but likely end up in jail. All of these players are "me first" type of sociopaths. Sure they'll work with each other, and Bannon will try to make it look like he's powerbrokering for Trump and the Republicans will try to make this worse for Biden, but Netanyahu is making choices purely for Netanyahu. Ideology is simply window dressing, part of the con and their own self aggrandizement, for most sociopaths. Even if we concede that Biden is in a very difficult situation, he really is doing a lot of this to himself.
@evan No, although who is arming Hamas? The West has a long, storied history of geopolitic interference, wouldn't surprise me if someone else was returning the favor.
@tehstu That's an interesting question! The Conversation says mostly Iran, although interestingly there is (was?) some domestic production of weapons in Gaza.
@evan ...wow. This is seriously the kind of conspiracy theory Trump fans usually endorse. Biden is flat out supporting and funding a genocide, arresting and shooting with rubber bullets anyone who protests. And democrats are spreading rumours that somehow Trump is behind this? This is just sad. And this is the reason Trump will win, because Biden and his fans have repeatedly proved that they are not any better.
@evan I think Democrats are the ones who are worried about what hurts "President Biden's re-election prospects", and want to misguide people from thinking that, above all, it's because of Biden's own actions. This is a very devious attempt at putting the blame elsewhere, at a time when thousands of children are being killed with Biden's blessings and weapons.
@panos I guess I don't understand what you're saying. I haven't heard anyone making this case before; I started thinking about it when I skated past an article about the October Surprise theory on Wikipedia. If you think that I have shared this idea to deflect blame from the current administration, I can assure you that is not the case. I was just thinking about it, and then the Russian interactions in 2016, and thought, is this crazy? Maybe I should make a poll.
@evan truth is I was triggered by the way the question was written. I believe you had no bad intention, but sometimes even questions are not innocent. For example if I ask "Are palestinians fighting Israel because they are antisemitic", this implies things. In a way, your poll's question could also clearly imply that a) it's the war that harms Biden's re-election prospects, and not that he supports it, and b) that Biden (the current president arming Israel) has no control over the situation, and Netanyahu does what he wants, possibly backed by Trump. Which could make sense if Netanyahu wasn't already fully backed by Biden in this. Russia is a superpower that can try to influence other countries, just like USA does all over the world (Greece included - Russia also has its people here, but their influence is close to zero compared to the USA); Israel is nothing without USA's support.
@evan the obvious difference with these cases is that Israel is a close ally of the current US administration. And it's not Israel's genocide that hurts Biden's campaign, but the fact that Biden is actively supporting the genocide.
@panos That's a good point -- there is high-level coordination by the Biden administration with the Netanyahu government all the time. Secretary Blinken was just visiting and consulting. So, it would only be colluding in the parts where the Netanyahu government is ignoring the Biden administration's requests, like with humanitarian aid or the attack on Rafah.
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