@markmccaughrean@mastodon.social
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markmccaughrean

@markmccaughrean@mastodon.social

Former Senior Advisor for Science & Exploration at the European Space Agency / JWST Science Working Group Interdisciplinary Scientist / Co-founder Space Rocks / New worlds ahead / Opinions very much own

Located in The Netherlands for now, so expect lots of cycling with wide horizons & big skies for a bit longer 🚴‍♂️

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markmccaughrean, to Netherlands
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Not bad; not bad at all 🙂

Especially for 52°N 🤷‍♂️



🇳🇱
📷
🚀☁️

markmccaughrean,
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I mean, look at this stuff overhead, & just with the phone 🤷‍♂️🤪

markmccaughrean,
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And could this curtain be any more crisp & colourful? 😻

Again, just with the iPhone, so subject to all the usual crap, but still …

cgbassa, to random
@cgbassa@astrodon.social avatar

Northern lights are visible from the South of the Netherlands this evening!

markmccaughrean,
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@cgbassa Excellent – am on my way to the beach to see what we can see, but the hope is that it should get brighter later, if I've understood the predicted CME front arrival time properly.

markmccaughrean,
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@cgbassa Hmm, I should have gone out earlier after all, but there’s a lot of family momentum here & I won’t be able to get them out of the house more than once 🤷‍♂️

markmccaughrean,
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@cgbassa I’ll take my DSLR & mobile to the beach – predictions seem to have the main CME front arriving in a couple of hours. I doubt we’ve seen the last of this yet 🙂

markmccaughrean,
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@blackwolf12333 @cgbassa From the space weather folk at the University of Reading, I think: I can’t find it again now.

markmccaughrean,
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@blackwolf12333 @cgbassa Check out @mathewjowens on Twitter: he’s saying sometime between now & a couple of hours later.

ExoHugh, to random
@ExoHugh@mastodon.online avatar

I've seen some UK news saying "There's a coming! Maybe there will be !" Now I can 100% guarantee that Brits venturing out tonight in clear skies will see a glow to the North... but it almost certainly won't be aurora! It's mid May after all! So, for much of the country, the glow of twilight is visible all "night" (some parts of the UK actually have no astronomical night until August). So, unless it's a once in a lifetime display, twilight will make aurora-spotting impossible

markmccaughrean,
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@ExoHugh Very good – I'm going to go to the beach in a bit & see what I can see here. A bit further north, but also to the west, so not quite as dark yet.

markmccaughrean, to random
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It’s on, sports fans 🙂

That said, it’s a couple of hours before sunset still here in The Netherlands, but this is definitely worth keeping an eye on 👍


markmccaughrean,
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markmccaughrean,
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@gang A quick search reveals this – might be what you're looking for. https://apps.apple.com/nl/app/northern-light-aurora-forecast/id1092949787?l=en-GB

markmccaughrean,
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@gang And there are quite a few others, if you search the Apple App store. Presumably also for Android.

markmccaughrean,
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@happydisciple Oh yes; some superb views from the car park at the Lentevreugd outside Wassenaar 🙂👍

markmccaughrean, to Netherlands
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You'll definitely see much better pictures, but this is mine 🌞🤷‍♂️🙂

The massive sunspot group AR3664, one of the largest for years, has been flaring & chucking out massive amounts of particles towards us for days 💥😬✌️

Which is why there's a severe geomagnetic storm warning for tonight & a good chance of seeing aurorae way down south in Europe 🥳🤞

🖖
🇳🇱
📷

markmccaughrean,
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I took the picture handheld with my Nikon D7000 DSLR & a 200mm zoom lens.

I put a regular polariser filter on the front of the lens. The I took a pair of shonky IMAX 3D glasses, which have polarised plastic filters in them, & rotated the glasses to cross the polarisers & dim the Sun down enough to avoid saturation.

The exposure time then 1/6400sec at f/10, ISO100, so perfectly good for handheld.

There's some thin cloud & the IMAX plastic lenses are rubbish, so the image isn't super-sharp.

markmccaughrean,
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And for the photography geeks, this MacGyver cross-polariser set-up makes the Sun look very blue, so when the DSLR RAW image is demosaiced, things aren't great.

So I switched the image to b/w mode in LightRoom to combine the channels differently, then colourised back to this yellow tint.

Some denoising then helped with the demosaicing issues.

markmccaughrean,
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To be clear, the forecast severe geomagnetic storm (the first G4 warning since 2005!) doesn't only mean that the aurorae will be seen far south in Europe, but also in North America.

And similarly far from the South Pole as well.

So you should keep an eye on space weather / aurora watch websites & apps for tonight (in Europe & NA), starting perhaps with these:

https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov

markmccaughrean,
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Here's the G4 storm alert which could lead to some spectacular auroral activity tonight much further from the poles than usual, plus a webpage from Aurora Watch UK with links to social media accounts & mobile apps that'll warn you if it's all about to go off.

Make sure you can quickly get to a dark location with a clear horizon – aurorae are very fickle at best & come & go in minutes, although this could be a doozy.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-watch-effect-may-11
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/alerts/

markmccaughrean,
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@BettinaKoza Now that's what I call planning ahead 🙂

I'm sure I have some kicking around somewhere, probably from the 2015 eclipse I saw from Iceland, but have no idea where they might be at this point.

markmccaughrean, to Netherlands
@markmccaughrean@mastodon.social avatar

Very nice 🙂

Lovely weather for this evening’s 60km ride: some warmth left over from the sunny day, but cool enough to be comfortable, & only a slight breeze 🌞🌬️🙇‍♂️

🚴‍♂️
🇳🇱
📷

markmccaughrean, to climate
@markmccaughrean@mastodon.social avatar

Nothing else matters.

Almost 80% of IPCC climate scientists believe we're heading for 2.5ºC of warming this century; 50% say 3ºC.

These are objectively disastrous numbers.

Over 70% say that lack of political will is to blame; 60% also blame vested corporate interests.

I'd add the demagogues, populists, & their cronies, weaponising denialism for their own short-term selfish gains.

History will judge our generation very harshly.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature

markmccaughrean,
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@Julianoe @skynebula Very good points – when I wrote "our generation", I was searching for something that encompassed a wider range of time, but failed.

And I agree that our children will be harsh judges – that's already clear & they will suffer the brunt of the decline we have put in place.

But when I was talking about historians, I was thinking a thousand or even ten thousand years hence, when perhaps after the long dark of collapse & planetary recovery, civilisation may emerge again.

markmccaughrean,
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@mikewaghorne I get your point, but as I've replied a few times already, I was thinking 1,000-10,000 years from now, when perhaps the climate has reset & humans have started climbing towards civilisation again.

We will have left enough detritus around for people to wonder who we were & quite how we screwed up so badly.

And they'll discover that we were to blame for the long dark ages their ancestors endured.

markmccaughrean,
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@mikewaghorne Me neither & perhaps thankfully so, if only because we'll all be collectively looked back upon as idiots at best, genocidal evil-doers at worst.

markmccaughrean,
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@ZillaMon Some humans will survive, albeit not many & certainly not in a good state. Humans survived the last ice age, after all.

My thought was that in 1,000 or perhaps even 10,000 years, if the climate resets itself without our CO2 excesses, then they may have the stability needed to build a new civilisation.

And they will doubtless see the remains of ours & wonder at quite how idiotic / careless we must have been to let it all slip away.

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