rlmcelreath

rlmcelreath, 4 months ago to random German

Like Bayesian stats & causal inference? Like secret BONUS content? Some of my Stat Rethinking lectures have BONUS topics hiding at end: misclassification, survival analysis, poststratification, Mundlak machines, Cholesky factors, floating point monsters. Timed links in next post

rlmcelreath, 4 months ago to random German

Do you like bibtex? Do you do doi? Do you want to get bibtex refs from doi on the command line? Yes you do, you wonderful monster. Try this line (adjust doi as needed, and see alt text for source too):

curl -LH "Accept: application/x-bibtex" https://doi.org/10.1002/evan.10110

rlmcelreath, 4 months ago to random German

The first 2 weeks of my (anti-)stats course, Statistical Rethinking, are over. We covered the foundations of Bayesian updating and model building. But you can jump right into week 3 - focuses more on structural confounding and causal inference. Hum over the stats details, let the warm light of generative modeling wash over you. Full lecture list (FREE): https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2024#calendar--topical-outline

intro video to lecture on confounding

rlmcelreath, 5 months ago to random German

I've frozen registration for Statistical Rethinking 2024. There are 342 ppl on the wait list. As attendance falls, I will invite from the list. But all of the lectures and homework and my boundless love for data rebellion remain open to all. BE EMBRACED: https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2024

intro to course

rlmcelreath, 6 months ago to random German

For my DE peeps, here's Deutschlandfunk reporting on a study of honeyguide-human cooperation that my department helped to fund. (4mins audio auf Deutsch) https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/ungewoehnliche-partnerschaft-hoenigvoegel-weisen-menschen-den-weg-dlf-d93a05d3-100.html

rlmcelreath, 6 months ago to random German

Causal salad, causal design, causal inference. I did a 3 hour workshop in Leipzig yesterday on causal inference, aka why your regressions are garbage lolsob. Here's a recording of me covering the same content, I promise it's not boring: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNPYUVmY3NM

rlmcelreath, 6 months ago to random German

Local registration for the 2024 round of my FREE OPEN ONLINE Statistical Rethinking course has begun. I'll open up registration to all on Sunday 3 December. Registration link will appear on the course github page: https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2024

trailer for statistical rethinking course, various statistical animations

rlmcelreath, 6 months ago to random German

Yes I will offer my online science-focused Statistical Rethinking course again starting in January 2024. Registration going up at the end of this month. All the course materials are already online though, so why wait? Update your posterior starting today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdnMWdICdRs&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=1

rlmcelreath, 7 months ago to random German

Iceland has entered the chat

55 Mya the same monster made the basalt formations on eastern Greenland and the huge basalt plateau beneath the Faroe Islands (see map). The Faroes are mountain peaks of this ancient plateau. Slættaratindur on right. Iceland is a baby (18 Mya).

I've been to both Iceland and the Faroes. Still need to visit eastern Greenland to complete my basalt tour.

Slættaratindur mountain in Faroe Islands. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sl%C3%A6ttaratindur

rlmcelreath, 8 months ago to random German

Recently discovered Angela Collier's sci-com channel (not on mast?). This is a one-take history of string theory miscommunication, delivered while she plays a video game. No fancy editing. Just spitting facts and slaying mobs. https://youtube.com/watch?v=kya_LXa_y1E

Idea: Who wants to see me complain about stats while playing Slay the Spire?

rlmcelreath, 9 months ago to random German

I told a colleague that logistic regression is AI and they got mad at me, so I made a chart. Find yourself. I am "Tinder is AI".

rlmcelreath, 9 months ago to random German

Want to learn a little game theory? Lectures from my course "Very Little Evolutionary Game Theory". Topics:

1. Evolution of Conflict
2. Evol of Cooperation
3. Evol of Relationships
4. Evol of Families
5. Evol of Societies
   Watch at x2 speed for full effect https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDcUM9US4XdPtHR9OZdjhYKVMv_RR42yk

rlmcelreath, 10 months ago to random German

Okay so Oppenheimer yeah. How about a biopic about Gauss (1805) and Tukey (1965) (re)inventing the Fast Fourier Transform?

Gauss devising it for astronomical problems, while ladding about Europe and being in general insufferable but brilliant, all while the Napoleonic wars go on around him.

Tukey struggling to find a way to detect Soviet nuclear tests with remote sensors during one of the most intense periods of the Cold War.

Anyone? Okay maybe not.

rlmcelreath, 10 months ago to random German

Stop arguing and have some shakshuka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shakshouka

rlmcelreath, 10 months ago to random German

I don't think I've ever shared this here...a clean timeline requires discipline:

joke movie with various things that lead me to potentially mute people

rlmcelreath, 10 months ago to random German

I often get asked about Bayes factors and confidence intervals as alternative to p-values. I don’t think either of these is any solution at all. https://elevanth.org/blog/2023/07/17/none-of-the-above/

rlmcelreath, 11 months ago to random German

Every July, there is much discussion of how happy and wealthy the USA is. Well I submit that diminishing returns on income require that the USA close its heavy metal gap, if it wants to achieve Finnish levels of happiness.

country level graph of logarithm of number of heavy metal bands (x-axis) against average happiness (y-axis)

rlmcelreath, 1 year ago to random German

Been arguing with ppl about stats on that other site today. Here's the constructive turn.

Multiple regression is not an oracle that spits out the total causal effects of each explanatory variable. Adding variables can hurt as much as it can help, whether a study is observational or experimental. https://elevanth.org/blog/2021/06/15/regression-fire-and-dangerous-things-1-3/

rlmcelreath, 1 year ago to random German

I believe that reality is a simulation because in the December 1906 issue of Nature Sir Francis Galton, father of eugenics, published a short letter on the best way to slice a cake. Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/075173c0

rlmcelreath, 1 year ago to random German

Nice talk by 3blue1brown (Grant Sanderson) on math pedagogy. Lots of insights applicable to teaching any technical subject at any level. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOuxo6SA8Uc

rlmcelreath, 1 year ago to coffee German

Open yourself up to the idea that #Bach wrote a comic mini-opera about #coffee and café culture. A German friend sent me this excellent performance of the Coffee Cantata. I thrust it into your timeline to push back the darkness. Tea drinkers are excused. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Loyexw3uk