GottaLaff,
@GottaLaff@mastodon.social avatar
HistoPol, (edited )
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@GottaLaff

Having talked about gut feelings today:

A dismal idea. I will not only provoke the North Korean, but also the Chinese leader, who is probably still choking on the idea of the future delivery of
to .

Subs seem to me the politically must inappropriate option. An aircraft carrier would have sent a very strong signal as well.

itwasntme223,

@HistoPol @GottaLaff It depends on the message. If you want to say, "We're right here" you send an Aircraft Carrier. If you want to send "We're here but you can't see us" then a submarine.

Pragmatically, The sub makes more sense as Aircraft carriers do not operate alone.To send an aircraft carrier means to send a naval battle group which can be at minimum 10 vessels plus support craft. That would be extremely provocative. With a submarine, it can operate on it's own from much longer, doesn't need support vessels and can be easily switched out for tours of duty.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223
Thanks for this introspective.
I am not a naval strategist.
Alas (or fortunately;)), I do not know Kim Jong-il.
What is more threatening?--A threat that you can see or one that you cannot see and that you can never be sure about where exactly it is?

One thing is sure, a nuclear submarine with its "almost unlimited" energy supply can strike anywhere at any time (within the corresponding missile range...

@GottaLaff

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

... An #aircraft #carrier would need to be moved into position openly, in contrast.

Now, of course, an aircraft carrier has a lot more #firepower (unless #nuclear #missiles are used) than a small #submarine. However, if I were Kim, I'd deal more easily with the visible than with the invisible enemy, larger provocation or not.

Let's hope I am wrong, though, and that #Xi in particular will not use the sub as a pretext to increase the heat on #Taiwan, which is what...,

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

...I would do, if I were him.

Note: the underlying assumption being that it is not IF #Xi's going to attack #Taiwan, but WHEN.

itwasntme223,

@HistoPol @GottaLaff I completely understand what your point but we also have to look at the fact that such a move may make the when days instead of months or years.

I detest the and governments but i would not want to risk the lives of everyone in that theater on a vague future threat.

Political theater is not an easy game and there is never a correct answer. lol

HistoPol, (edited )
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

#China #Taiwan #GeoPol

(1/n)

I don't see the invasion threat as either vague or far-distant.

My mental model/scenario is chiefly based on these six points:

  1. Xi's profile

  2. Chinese history and current tendencies

  3. India

  4. Arms deals

  5. Europe

  6. Cyberwarfare

  7. #Xi will never back down from the "#OneChina" policy, though it is no "reunification," as their false narrative goes. It is supposed to be his legacy.

  8. #Chinese #Nationalists are already openly...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

(2/n)

... calling for the reincorporation of formerly territory around . (I do see a tripartite dissolution of the Federation as highly likely, one the remainder of the formerly proud Army has spent itself in

  1. , a potential threat, has been gradually and successfully encircled (https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110181439520474931).

  2. Delivery of the to will significantly shift the power in the ...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar
HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

(3/n)

...dates can be brought forward, as we have seen with . So, the earliest imaginable date from 's perspective plus at least a year or so ( experience of a failed ) will be his ultimate deadline.
(PS: Maybe someone from the naval defense industry can tell me his/her stance...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

(4/n)

...on when that delivery date would be`)

  1. Europe: Incompetencies such as 's recent stunt in * can bring this date forward, as can obvious delivery-chain failures in the and for and in the theater.
    is already the biggest winner of the :
    https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110181464532828425

...

*https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/21/macron-accused-of-playing-into-xis-hands-with-taiwan-comments

HistoPol, (edited )
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

(5/6)

...
6) #Cyberwarfare in #China and abroad: #Xi has successfully taken control of the internet in China (#GreatFirewallOfChina) and can now even control the narrative in all media. Furthermore, the strategic investment in #Twitter gives it clout in the still prominent #SocialMedia platform.
(see my older threads).

And there are other issues, like China profiting from the #EnergyWars, the successor to its #RoadAndBelt initiative, etc., but this is simply...

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

(6/6)

...not an adequate platform (format) for this multi-dimensional topic.

HistoPol, (edited )
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar
larthallor,

@HistoPol @itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

These are nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which have but one purpose: launching nuclear weapons. And that is the point.

Occasionally docking Trident missile boats in South Korea is nuclear signaling. The South is currently considering making their own nuclear weapons to deter the North. The US would very much like to forestall this, so we are doing everything we can to reassure them that US nukes are sufficient to deter any North Korean nuclear attack.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@larthallor @itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

Thanks for clarifying this.

This makes a lot of sense from a military point of view.

Do aircraft carriers have nuclear capabilities, too?

itwasntme223,

@HistoPol @larthallor @GottaLaff to your aircraft carrier question, no. That's not its job. It provides air superiority and a mobile air force against an enemy.

Now, there could be a nuclear capable vessel in its fleet but we want to avoid making our nukes easy targets by satellite.

So, most of the nukes are in silos or under the water.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff @larthallor

I'd have thought so. Makes (terrible) sense.

Thanks.

larthallor,

@HistoPol @itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

Navy jets like the F-18 and F-35 are capable of dropping nuclear bombs. The Navy does not disclose whether any given carrier is carrying such weapons at any given time.

Having assets with no conventional war fighting mission show up in South Korea every now and then is just a way to show the Koreans that the US is deadly serious about using nuclear weapons to retaliate in-kind against the North attacking the South with nuclear weapons.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@larthallor

That makes also a lot of sense.

Do also have tactical missiles, so that a (limited) threat were plausible?

@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

larthallor,

@HistoPol @itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

None of the subs carrying Trident ballistic missiles have conventional missiles. These subs are designated as “SSBN”.

Four of these subs originally built as SSBNs were later refitted to carry non-nuclear cruise missiles. No longer capable of firing Trident nuclear missiles, they were redesignated as “SSGN”.

Currently, none of the subs that can fire nukes can fire conventional cruise missiles and vice versa.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio-class_submarine#SSBN/SSGN_conversions

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@larthallor @itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

Thanks. Learning a lot.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@larthallor

"The Second Cold War has begun."

I have been thinking this for some years now.

Since last year, my fear is that it will not remain cold.

Alas, I have to agree with your "armored divisions" statement.

To summarize Plato, Shi Ji, and Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus:
"Si vis pacem, para bellum" ("If you want peace, prepare for war").

Because as the grand master of all said about 2,500 years ago:

"In peace prepare for war,...
@itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

itwasntme223,

@HistoPol @larthallor @GottaLaff with Humans we will always delve into war over and over again. It's history. Lol

I agree but I like to caveat that prepared for war should not instigate it. Let them fire the first shot.

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@itwasntme223

Far from it. Which is why I was so concerned about the #tridents

Hopefully(!), I will be wrong regarding #Xi's reaction.

@GottaLaff @larthallor

HistoPol,
@HistoPol@mastodon.social avatar

@larthallor @itwasntme223 @GottaLaff

... in #war prepare for #peace
The art of war is of vital importance to the state. It is matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin.
Hence under no circumstances can it be neglected."

#SunTsu

#ArtOfWar
#TheArtOfWar

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