@RARohde@fediscience.org
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RARohde

@RARohde@fediscience.org

Lead Scientist Berkeley Earth. Physics PhD, data nerd, and cancer survivor. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, and air quality issues.

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RARohde, to climate
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February 2024 Temperature Update

Warmest February since measurements began in 1850.

Warmest ocean average, 3rd warmest land average

9th consecutive record warm month

El Niño continues, but is now weakening. Likely to end mid-2024.

2024 is likely to become the warmest or 2nd warmest year.

https://berkeleyearth.org/february-2024-temperature-update/

🧵

RARohde, to random
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Two years later, the water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption is still in no rush to dissipate.

This excess water vapor likely adds a small amount to global warming (e.g. ~0.05 °C or less), with perhaps somewhat larger regional perturbations.

RARohde, to climate
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January 2024 Temperature Update

2024 was the globally warmest January that has been directly measured (i.e. since 1850).

It was also warmest in the ocean, 3rd warmest on land

Strong El Niño continues, but weakening & likely ends mid-year.

Very likely 2024 becomes the warmest or 2nd warmest year.

https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2024-temperature-update/

1/

RARohde,
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January 2024 was the 8th consecutive record warm monthly average, and the 7th consecutive month averaging more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 average.

2/

RARohde,
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Particularly warm conditions in January occurred in Central Asia, Northern Canada, North Africa, the Middle East, South America, parts of the Atlantic, and parts of the Indian Ocean.

Unusually cold conditions were present in Northern Europe and Central Antarctica.

3/

RARohde,
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11.5% of the Earth's surface had record warm monthly averages in January, including significant parts of South America, the Atlantic, Middle East, and Indian Ocean.

0.3% of the Earth's surface (all in Antarctica) had a record cold monthly average.

4/

RARohde,
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El Niño conditions in the Pacific remain strong but have weakened slightly.

Forecasts expect this El Niño will end by mid-year, with a possible return of La Niña and associated cooling in the second-half of 2024.

5/

RARohde,
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Boosted by El Niño, 2024 has started quite warm and this is expected to continue.

Our current forecast range expects that 2024 will become either the warmest (60% chance) or 2nd warmest (39% chance) year on record, with only a slight chance of any lower outcome.

6/

RARohde,
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To read more about global and regional temperature conditions in January 2024, please visit our monthly temperature report:

https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2024-temperature-update/

7/7

RARohde, to climate
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Berkeley Earth's Annual Temperature Report is expected to appear on January 12th.

Embargoed copies will be available to journalists a couple days beforehand.

If any journalists would like to be added to our distribution list, please email media@berkeleyearth.org.

RARohde, to random
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In case anyone is wondering, it has dissipated a bit, but most of the water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption is still there.

Not the most important factor, but possibly a small contributing factor to the weird weather in 2023.

RARohde, to climate
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Berkeley Earth November Temperature Update

The warmest November since measurements began in 1850, with records for both land and ocean individually.

Essentially certain that 2023 becomes the warmest year, and very likely to exceed 1.5 °C in our dataset.

https://berkeleyearth.org/november-2023-temperature-update/

RARohde,
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Temperatures during last six months have run well above the previous records for this time of year.

At 1.77 ± 0.12 °C (3.18 ± 0.22 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, November 2023 was by far the warmest November and the 2nd largest anomaly on record (behind September 2023).

2/

RARohde,
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November 2023 saw broad warmth across most to the world, but was particularly notable in the Pacific, Central Asia, Northern Canada, North Africa, and South America.

Unusually cold conditions occurred in Northern Europe and Eastern Antarctica.

3/

RARohde,
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In November 2023, monthly temperature averages set new record highs in 12% of the Earth's surface, including large parts of South America, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean.

Near record cold occurred in Eastern Antarctica.

4/

RARohde,
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Looked at seasonally, the last three months have not only been the warmest September to November on record, but they are also the largest deviation from trend in at least 100 years.

A truly abrupt spike in global temperatures.

5/

RARohde,
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Average temperatures over the last three months set a new September-November record high for 19% of the Earth's surface, including 32% of the land surface.

The Atlantic, South America, North Africa, Middle East, and Asia were especially affected.

6/

RARohde,
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Man-made global warming largely sets the long-term trend, but abrupt recent warming is partly due to natural variability, including the transition to a strong El Niño.

Combined with other natural and man-made factors, this has made 2023 into a record-breaking year.

7/

RARohde,
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With 11 months completed, 2023 is virtually certain to set a new annual average temperature record.

In the Berkeley Earth analysis, it is also very likely to exceed 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 baseline.

8/

RARohde, to Canada
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This year's record-setting Canadian fires burned >3 times as much carbon as all of Canada's annual fossil fuel use.

Canadian fossil fuel emissions (2021): 545 MtCO₂

Canadian wildfire emissions (typical year): 290 MtCO₂

Canadian wildfire in 2023 (CAMS estimate): 1,740 MtCO₂

RARohde,
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@doomscroller

US acreage burned is actually on a 20 year low, mostly due to favorable weather conditions (i.e. less dry in the West).

RARohde, to worldwithoutus
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The open water passage through the Arctic Ocean has closed again till next year.

This year the passage was open longer than in 2021 or 2022, but still far shorter than the record set in 2020.

Summer open water passages through the Arctic Ocean were uncommon until about 2005 but have become an annual occurrence in recent years.

image/png

RARohde, to climate
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September 2023 Temperature Update 🔥

Warmest September & largest anomaly ever measured, shattering previous September record.

Warming since August concentrated in polar regions.

Near certain that 2023 becomes the warmest year.

Likely 2023 exceeds 1.5 °C.

https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/

RARohde,
@RARohde@fediscience.org avatar

A single year above 1.5 °C would not automatically mean the that the IPCC's target to limit warming to 1.5 °C has failed, as those targets are based on long-term averages.

However, it would highlight the very limited time remaining.

In addition, we note that different analysis groups have slightly different estimates of long-term trends.

It is possible, and in this case likely, that 1 or 2 may have final values for 2023 that slightly exceed 1.5 °C while others are slightly below 1.5 °C.

11/

RARohde,
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For additional discussion and analysis related to the record-shattering temperatures in September, please refer to the Berkeley Earth temperature update.

https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/

12/12

RARohde,
@RARohde@fediscience.org avatar

@doomscroller

Yes, it may. It is frequently the case that the second year of an El Niño is hotter than the first.

That said, there are many aspects of this year that are already pretty unusual, so perhaps it ends up bucking the trend.

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