'Despite sanctions, the Kremlin’s war chest is still overflowing with cash, thanks to windfall energy profits last year and also to the adaptability of Russian commodities exporters, who have found new customers and who settle payments mostly in yuan' (cont.)
'Putin is banking on the fact that the Russian manpower that can potentially be mobilised is three to four times bigger than Ukraine’s, and the only pressing task is to be able to tap into that resource at will'
'Once an electronic draft notice is issued, Russia’s borders will be immediately closed to its recipient in order to prevent a massive exodus of military-age men like the one Russia witnessed last autumn.' (Cont.)
'The Kremlin hopes that the rapid rebuilding of the Russian army and gradual decimation of the Ukrainian economy and armed forces will result in growing western frustration and a decline in material support for Kyiv. To speed up this process and break the west’s will, Moscow is using threats of escalation, including expansion of the conflict towards Nato territory via Belarus with the help of Wagner mercenaries based there.' https://www.ft.com/content/861a8955-924e-4d3e-8c59-73a13403e191
@GatekeepKen they never confirmed they would have been behind it, afaik. And the Kerch bridge was taken out partially only - trains started running within a few hours after the latest attack and that is the main vehicle for transporting military equipment
@fulelo
Zelenski mentioned he was going to destroy it..He needs to accomplish that...Trains should not be coming into Ukraine with Russian supplies.
Thanks for the update.
@GatekeepKen@fulelo The attack on Saturday was at Chonhar Bridge, not Kerch Bridge. The bridge that was hit does connect the (for now occupied) southern part of Kherson Oblast and Crimea. If there is severe (i. e. structural) damage, remains to be seen. But Ukrainian Sources say that drivers have been instructed to take a detour.
@fulelo can't access the whole article, but this strategy does rest on key assumption that Russia can indeed scale up its army's conflict abilities. History tells us that opening up more fronts in wars is not always met with military success.
@fulelo I wish I could have read the article because it's a novel--if depressing!--take. I suspect a lot of the analysis is resting on the assumption that Russia can rebuild it's military quickly.
"The Kremlin hopes that the rapid rebuilding of the Russian army...will result in growing western frustration."
(Asterisks for emphasis. Is there a bold font in the fediverse?)
@tobie1@fulelo thanks, also experienced their site as locked without a subscription.
I think this war is a existential issue for Putin. Remains to be seen whether he can appear strong in front of the only opposition he allowed: The nationalists who call on expanding the war even more than he ever would.
The Russian people I think will not end this war unless it comes to them. Their arrangement is that the Tsar can fight all he wants as long as they’re not involved.
@gimulnautti@fulelo I hadn't thought about the war from Putin's perspective. I think you're right that it's existential for him. He launched this campaign. To stay in power, he needs to win it. I wonder how much Russians are feeling the cost of this war. You can find ways to bypass sanctions. You can hide casualty figures. But can you make families forget they lost sons sent to the front? It was the pictures of body bags that turned Americans sour on the Vietnam War.
@fulelo Anyone paying attention already knows this gambit. #Putin's options for escalation against #NATO are limited (he knows #Russia would be defeated handily), so he looks for ways to get #Ukraine's allies to do self-deterrence by ramping up the escalatory, usually #Nuclear, rhetoric (cue drunk #Medvedev). The regime also has to be cautious at home. If Putin actually wanted to "win" the war against Ukraine, he would have started general #Mobilization in Spring 2022, not half-measures now.
Also, as usual, Russia doesn't have the money and means to follow through on a strategic level. They always try to achieve their goals on the cheap (and usually it works)
Like gaining sympathy in african countries through mostly rhetoric, propaganda and a few tons of free grain.
@lethen@DeeGLloyd Russia relies on some historic ties too, education etc ... and it is not just grain (and weapons), it is gingerbread too, from Tula 😉 as we discovered in the #Mali episode of #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hl5 worth a listen. Or the part part in the CAR, looking partially into how they are earning their upkeep on the ground... you might like that and the CAR episode
@DeeGLloyd@fulelo Speaking as a non-expert, what seems most likely is that Putin is trying to hold on to the territory Russia’s forces currently control, especially the Donbas area and Crimea. The bet would seem to be that the West would get tired of supporting Ukraine (I hope it doesn’t!) and then Ukraine would be forced to settle. Of course, if Trump wins in 2024, the US would immediately withdraw support from Ukraine, another reason for Putin to stall.
@fulelo of course he is. The #Baltic states – especially #Lithuania – have always been on #Russia's target list. A significant reason for the #UkraineInvasion since 2014 has been to secure the naval port at #Sevastopol, and he also wants a land corridor to #Kaliningrad, for the same reason.
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