Skua,

It won't be happening in the next couple of years for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, while the push for independence is not solely dependent on the leading pro-independence political party, the SNP, (and nor should it be) that party has taken a hit recently. The former leader, a very effective and generally well-liked politician despite how long she was in the top job in Scotland, had quite an ignominious end to her career. It'll take a while for the SNP to re-establish sufficient credibility and support, or for other pro-indy parties to fill the gap. Hopefully the Greens, but I suppose I must begrudgingly acknowledge the Alba party too.

Secondly, there's no incentive for the Westminster parties to cooperate. In 2014, the Conservatives were relying on a coalition with the Liberal Democrats to secure a majority in parliament. The LDs were quite popular in Scotland, and the Conservatives' biggest rival Labour were popular in Scotland, so throwing the Scottish electorate a bone was a good way to shore things up. Now, though, we have a comfortable Conservative majority which is likely to give way to a crushing Labour one in the next election either late this year or early next year. Polls suggest Labour might even make something of a comeback in Scotland, which they have been largely excised from at the UK general election level for about ten years. As such, neither of the two have anything to gain by offering a referendum.

There's also less of an appetite for it while things feel less steady in general. Making a new country is a major undertaking with a lot of risk attached, and it's reasonable for people to be less willing to take that risk when they already feel like times are tougher.

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