As an American, I can see that there’s what appears to be a vocal minority in Scotland pushing for independence, but I genuinely have no understanding of how likely that is to ever actually happen. Is it at least in the realm of possibility, or is it more of a “The South shall rise again” type thing? (No offense intended to either side of the debate, just genuinely curious.)
It won't be happening in the next couple of years for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, while the push for independence is not solely dependent on the leading pro-independence political party, the SNP, (and nor should it be) that party has taken a hit recently. The former leader, a very effective and generally well-liked politician despite how long she was in the top job in Scotland, had quite an ignominious end to her career. It'll take a while for the SNP to re-establish sufficient credibility and support, or for other pro-indy parties to fill the gap. Hopefully the Greens, but I suppose I must begrudgingly acknowledge the Alba party too.
Secondly, there's no incentive for the Westminster parties to cooperate. In 2014, the Conservatives were relying on a coalition with the Liberal Democrats to secure a majority in parliament. The LDs were quite popular in Scotland, and the Conservatives' biggest rival Labour were popular in Scotland, so throwing the Scottish electorate a bone was a good way to shore things up. Now, though, we have a comfortable Conservative majority which is likely to give way to a crushing Labour one in the next election either late this year or early next year. Polls suggest Labour might even make something of a comeback in Scotland, which they have been largely excised from at the UK general election level for about ten years. As such, neither of the two have anything to gain by offering a referendum.
There's also less of an appetite for it while things feel less steady in general. Making a new country is a major undertaking with a lot of risk attached, and it's reasonable for people to be less willing to take that risk when they already feel like times are tougher.
If I understand correctly, for a referendum to happen, the UK prime minister must agree and allow it to happen, as David Cameron did before. The big question it, will there be another PM that stupid?
Disclaimer: am American so I only see from outside, but I think the longer the UK is out of the EU the more likely another independence referendum becomes. Also a labour government taking over from the tories would be preferable to the Scottish people, I feel.
A Labour government is, of course, preferable to the Tories. However they too are a Unionist party and not likely to agree to another referendum from Holyrood.
They’d be better to chip away at the two main cases for Scottish independence: 1) Closer and closer ties to the EU if not rejoining in some form (EEA membership for example) 2) hatred of the English by being more collaborative with Scotland in the running of the UK.
These two things might weaken the case for another referendum.
This isn’t true at all. Since ww2 Scotland has voted Labour up until very recently. Every election the largest party in England formed the government. Scotland’s vote hasn’t mattered much. Scotland has never voted Tory, but they have by far spent the most time in government.
Scotland was full of Labour safe seats, so they did make up a big contingent of the Labour party. But Labour has lost all talent in Scotland. The SNPs success has caused Scottish Labour to churn through leaders till they accepted their fate of 2nd place - currently 3rd.
Every election the largest party in England formed the government.
Thanks, I've been misinformed. There were some really surprising people telling the Scottish to vote "stay" and it must have just been some kind of rhetoric.
To be fair to them, Scotland did vote to stay in the 2014 referendum by roughly 55% to 45%. I think thst there are sufficient meaningful changes in the situation since then that asking again would be fair, but it's important to acknowledge that it isn't based on nothing
If you think hatred of the English is a factor in Scottish independence your badly informed. In Scotland the most intolerant people tend to be unionists, so intolerant they were told not to campaign against independence by the unionist parties.
I don’t live in Scotland, but I can’t even imagine what it must’ve been like to have that close referendum followed by Brexit only a couple of years later.
What I’m wondering about right now though is Irish unification? That seems to be building up some serious momentum from everything I’ve been reading.
The SNP said Brexit would happen and England would make Boris Johnson prime minister. They were mocked by the media for both predictions.
The Unionists promised Scotland would receive more powers if they voted no. The day after the referendum David Cameron announced English votes for English laws. A policy that would remove Scottish MPs from the sovereign capabilities of Parliament.
There was an independence referendum in 2014, No won with 55% of the vote. There have been some theories that if brexit happened earlier then yes would have won. So yes it’s definitely possible.
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