Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

…

High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

BraveSirZaphod, (edited )
BraveSirZaphod avatar

It should be clearly stated that recession is a technical term with a specific meaning, not a general term for a rough economy. Not all tough economic times are recessions. It is not at all a contradiction for lots of people to be struggling and for a recession to not be happening. This is not economists saying that everything is hunky dory and that people have no reason to complain, only that the specific phenomenon that is a recession is not occurring right now.

Edit: Just to put it explicitly, a recession is generally defined as two or more successive quarters in which GDP contracts rather than growing.

SuiXi3D,
SuiXi3D avatar

Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?

Ensign_Crab,

Still boned and if you’re not delighted it means you want Trump to win.

MicroWave,
@MicroWave@lemmy.world avatar

Well, according to the article:

Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.

RememberTheApollo,

Well, fuck.

And of course wages aren’t going to take a leap forward either.

Ranvier,

Wages are growing on average, and faster than inflation (5.2% wage growth vs 3.2% inflation year over year for the past year). Takes two seconds to Google.

www.statista.com/…/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

Somewhat remarkably considering the problems with income inequality in the US, wages are growing the fastest of all among people with lower incomes (though all the wage increases in the world aren’t gonna tackle the problem of the power of the 0.1% investor class of wealth hoarders).

www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/

marketplace.org/…/lower-income-earners-wages-have…

It’s pretty expected to given the persistent low unemployment and a high labor demand.

Not saying there’s no concerns at all in the entire economy or anything crazy. But you don’t have to spread disinformation like wages aren’t growing.

RememberTheApollo,

Disinformation?

I’ll offer this in return:

As of the second quarter of 2023, prices are up 15.8% since the beginning of 2021, while wages have climbed 12.8%, based on the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The trend is a win for workers – a feature of a job market that’s been surprisingly resilient as inflation slows and interest rates rise.

Nonetheless, a gap between household buying power and inflation remains.

At its current pace, workers’ wages aren’t set to recover their loss of total purchasing power until at some point in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bankrate’s new Inflation To Wage Index.

spokesman.com/…/wages-are-finally-rising-faster-t…

So let’s say wages are increasing faster than inflation. A couple articles I looked at said they just started to last quarter, so great, you might be right, but you’ve only been right for a very short while and the buying power that should go along with increasing wages won’t be felt until next year sometime.

Ranvier, (edited )

Not disinformation, it’s accurate. Your article is accurate too, though lacks context and important details. Let me explain.

Wages outpaced inflation at the beginning of the pandemic, stopped being enough to compensate about May 2021, and started to again in January 2023. Though technically even earlier, because these are all year over year rates so it’s talking about the entire year summed up ending in January 2023, so in reality that threshold was crossed sometime in the year ending in January 2023. As the graph above showed.

If you’re talking about real wages/hr compensated for inflation fully recovering, it depends on your comparison point in time. I think December 2019, just before the pandemic started, makes the most sense as a comparison point. If that’s your starting point, real wages/hr are already higher.

Real wages in 1982-1984 dollars, December 2019: $10.96/hr www.bls.gov/news.release/…/realer_01142020.pdf

The same for October 2023: $11.05/hr www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

Your article doesn’t state what it uses as the start point date. I’m guessing to get at that conclusion they must have picked a date already somewhat into the pandemic. I think this is misleading because there was a time at the start of pandemic inflation plummeted as people stopped spending money on many things, while wages continued to increase. If you consider the pandemic as a whole, wages have compensated for inflation. Purchasing power right now is greater than in December 2019. If you cherry pick somewhere in the middle of the pandemic, grabbing the point in time that inflation really started to tick up with the supply chain crisis but excluding the earlier wage increases that occurred during the pandemic, like let’s say April 2021 (well over a year into the pandemic), than we would still be below that time point.

April 2021: $11.31/hr www.bls.gov/news.release/…/realer_05122021.pdf

I’m guessing that’s the time point your article must have picked, because at the current rate of wage increases over inflation we’ll equal that again ~February. But again, misleading year over year rates, so if we hit that on the official number reported in February it means in reality we crossed that point sometime during the previous year ending in February.

And another disclaimer, these wage gains are not even across the whole economy. As your article pointed out, hourly workers and low wage workers saw more of the increases. Some sectors like healthcare and social services saw less of them. So none of this is to imply anything about any particular individual, these are all very broad averages. And of course feel free to disagree with me on what comparison time points make the most sense to you. But I think the most important things in terms of inflation are that month to month inflation is currently pretty flat and back to normal (0.1% price increase in November 2023 from October 2023), and wage increases are continuing to outpace it, so purchasing power will continue to improve over time if these trends continue.

EatATaco,

Just fyi, when the poster accused you of disinformation, it was a warning that they were about to push some disinformation.

queermunist,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

Can’t wait to be told “actually sweetie Biden fixed inflation” even though nothing actually got better. It just stopped getting worse as fast.

kick_out_the_jams,

How would you describe 'fixed' inflation?

Price decreases would be deflation, but fixing inflation is literally something like stopping/slowing the rate of increase.

queermunist,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

Normal people only really care about their own purchasing power. We care about our wages relative to the price of necessities and luxuries. Until paychecks go as far as they used to before the pandemic, normal people won’t consider the problem fixed.

Ranvier,

Real wages, wages controlled for inflation, expressed in 1982-1984 dollars, on average have surpassed where they were before the pandemic.

Real wages in October 2023: www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

Real wages in December 2019: stats.bls.gov/news.release/…/realer_01142020.pdf

In December 2019 it was $10.96 /hr expressed in 1982-1984 dollars. In October 2023 it was $11.05 /hr in 1982-1984 dollars.

So yes, purchasing power restored. Of course this is an average. So while most people have had their purchasing power restored, if someone is in a industry like tech that got hit hard by interest rates, they may not have experienced this. The wage gains have also been more pronounced for people with lower incomes than with higher incomes. So people with higher incomes are less likely to have seen their full purchasing power restored.

But hey our economy was nowhere near perfect in 2019 before the pandemic either. Let’s make it better by shifting focus to income inequality, reversing disastrous tax cuts made by Trump, improving our housing supply shortages, trying to find ways to effectively get the investor class to pay their fair share, etc etc. Biden’s increase of the corporate tax rate and creation of an internationally enforced corporate minimum tax to prevent tax dodging, and increased resources to the IRS to go after wealthy tax cheats are good starts, but there’s so much more to do. This inflation issue that has largely resolved now is just sucking all the air out of the room and distracting from all these other problems, many of which need local or state solutions.

Fixbeat,

Yes, that’s what fixing inflation means. I would like to know what you envision Biden doing. Decree that prices will go down? Not going to happen because there’s no mechanism for that kind of fiat.

queermunist,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

Normal people don’t care about technical financial instruments. We care about how far our paychecks go, and they do not go as far as they did before the pandemic. Until they do, no one is going to believe inflation has been fixed. Get it?

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

No facts, just vibes!

paraphrand,

Lording economic theory over people won’t make them feel any different about their reality.

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

I completely agree, but if people are talking about specific elements of economic theory, then we should accurately talk about it. If we don't hold ourselves to some kind of intellectual standard, then words become meaningless and incredibly easy to twist into fitting whatever agenda you like. A Republican could easily say that inflation has been caused by oppressive taxes and the obvious solution is to slash taxes, mostly for the wealthy of course, but with a mild tax break for the middle class to make it politically palatable. If you know anything about how inflation actually works, you'd know that this would simply make inflation even worse as consumers suddenly have a bunch of new cash to spend, further devaluing the dollar.

afraid_of_zombies,

Sounds like vibes to me.

queermunist,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

The fact is that paychecks do not go as far as they did before. That’s not a vibe, that’s the difference between making or missing bills.

You’re ignoring the facts that matter to score gotcha points. This is only going to piss people off even more than they already are lol

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

When discussing actual economic phenomena like inflation and recessions, yes, I think it is reasonable to actually be accurate and consistent in what we're talking about.

Inflation is one problem. Wages not matching the cost of living is another, though related, problem. Saying that inflation has largely returned to normal is true, regardless of whatever else might also be true. Someone saying that is not saying that all economic woes have been fixed and that no one has any right to complain about anything.

I'm guessing you're implying that Biden is saying that consumers need to stop whining because inflation has normalized. That would be pretty annoying, but he's not actually said that. In fact, he just recently gave a speech blaming corporations:

Any corporation that has not brought their prices back down, even as inflation has come down, even as the supply chains have been rebuilt, it’s time to stop the price gouging.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/27/white-house-supply-chain-bidenomics-wins.html

He's also launched several initiatives aiming to make supply chains more robust and thus prevent future shocks from impacting prices so severely.

queermunist,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

I’m guessing you’re implying that Biden is saying that consumers need to stop whining because inflation has normalized. That would be pretty annoying, but he’s not actually said that. In fact, he just recently gave a speech blaming corporations:

Naw, I’m just implying that annoying people on the internet are doing it; ostensibly people who want me to vote for Biden.

natarey,

I’m baffled that you’re getting downvotes – like… yeah. It’s a no brainer that people primarily care about their own purchasing power, and the last few years have depressed that to a shocking degree. Not one person on Earth looks at their inability to pay for groceries or rent and goes, “Well, thank God the markets are okay!”

As for what can be done? Price controls exist. Subsidies exist. The trouble with the modern world is, the wrong prices are controlled, and the wrong products are subsidized – that stuff is all tipped in favor of pouring money into the gullets of the already wealthy and powerful. And that’s a problem that could, in theory, be fixed if anyone at any level of any government gave the slightest shit about the people they serve.

afraid_of_zombies,

Raise taxes on the wealthy. Pass rules that a certain minimum must be paid each year regardless of how many credits or deductions they have. Ban zoning. Build as many houses as can be built as fast as possible.

natarey,

More fundamentally, I think there are a lot of countries that could benefit from taking a good long look at themselves and asking –

  • Why does this nation exist?
  • Whose needs matter most?
  • To what end are our nation’s resources directed?
  • What are our our priorities?

Because I think a lot of countries have just straight-up lost the plot. They’ve lost sight of, and fail to articulate, their purpose for existing, and thus squander phenomenal resources on bullshit. They live in myths and fantasies and old cultural scripts that haven’t been relevant or functional since the mid-70s.

I think honest answers to those questions would kind of horrify people – at least, they should horrify American citizens – and it might spark an actual change of direction.

Ranvier,

The reason they’re getting down votes is because they’re making claims about purchasing power being depressed despite no data to back it up, with data from many angles showing purchasing power has been largely restored in comparison to before the pandemic, at least in the United States I should be clear. Many western countries had worse inflation than the US and have not had their purchasing power catch up again. Then it goes to “well we don’t trust the numbers we feel differently.” And how can you argue with feelings? It’s just not a productive discussion. Not to mention distracting from many other important issues in our economy. It’s not like there was a perfect economy in 2019. And it still isn’t, even with inflation slowed and wage increases largely compensating.

natarey,

I mean, this article from from AP is what we’re all talking about:

But even as overall price increases slow, it doesn’t mean inflation is reversing or that most prices are falling back to pre-pandemic levels. The consumer price index, the most widely followed measure of inflation, remains about 20% higher than it was before the pandemic.

Milk prices, which have ticked down compared with the past year, are still 23% higher than they were pre-pandemic. Ground beef prices are 31% higher. Gas prices, despite a steep decline from a year ago, are still 46% higher than before the pandemic.

Many economists say a key reason why so many Americans hold a gloomy view of the economy despite very low unemployment and steady hiring is that these prices — on items that they buy regularly — remain much higher than they were three years ago.

apnews.com/…/inflation-prices-interest-rates-econ…

Basically, the things that actually matter to most people – food, fuel, housing, utilities – remain more expensive than before the pandemic by significant margins. And those prices will never come back down. The best most can hope for is to earn more money to offset the price hike – which, for most people, means taking on new or additional employment just to be able to get back to where they were before the pandemic. People have lost ground. That’s the problem here.

Ranvier, (edited )

The whole point is on average people haven’t lost any ground cause compared to before the pandemic! None of these articles talk about the 20% increase in wages over this time, just the price increases. That’s wages per hour increasing by 20% mind you, not people taking up additional jobs.

The ap has just picked a couple of the highest ones out of the entire index. Read the whole article. Not all the day to day essentials have increased that much. Average them all together and you get 20% increased cost of living over the last 4 years. Prices are 20% higher on average before the pandemic. Wages are also 20% higher on average. So real buying power is about where it was before the pandemic on average. Inflation month to month is barely even moving anymore, prices were unchanged September to October. Wages are increasing faster than inflation right now so things will continue to improve. But people aren’t walking around with their pay stubs from 2019 and 2023 while in the supermarket going, oh milk increased in price 20% over 4 years but it looks like my wage did to. People are psychologically hung up on the high price they see every day. And everytime we have a bird flu epidemic wiping out tens of millions of chickens in our horrible factory farms keeping things like eggs artificially cheap, reporters are right there ready to write sensational headlines and inflame people even more. There’s essentially nothing left to do from an inflation perspective at this point anymore, except keeping unemployment low and labor demand high so wage increases can continue and real wages can increase.

Real wages December 2019 (meaning wages in relation to inflation anchored to 1982-1984 dollars): stats.bls.gov/news.release/…/realer_01142020.pdf

Real wages October 2023: www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

If you look you’ll note they are higher now than then. Wage increases have compensated for inflation. But for the media “inflation back to normal slow steady pace, wage increases over the last four years have compensated, wages continue out pace inflation currently” just isn’t a very attention grabbing headline. Media will always be biased toward sensationalism.

natarey,

That you don’t seem to get what we’re saying is amazing. What you are talking about does not matter to most people – their own lived experience of not being able to afford basic necessities, or having to draw on savings and retirement income to afford them, are all they see. You can shout numbers at people all you like, but all they – and I – hear is, “Your own lived experience is wrong, and I know better than you do about your day to day life.”

So, let’s grant for argument’s sake that the numbers you’re citing actually say what you imply – that wage increases have made up for inflation for most people, and therefore no one has any reason to complain. You do realize that desperately job hopping to try to stay where you started economically is enervating and miserable, right? To spend three years post-pandemic finding new work, retraining, striking, and all the rest, only to find yourself economically no better off than when you started? What a nightmare.

I get that you have a pile of numbers that say everything’s rosy – but most regular people appear to disagree with you, judging by consumer sentiment polls and other surveys. The answer in that case isn’t to double down and declare that people are too stupid to know whether they’re doing okay financially – the answer is to ask yourself whether your measures are wrong, or your data isn’t capturing something critical.

Ranvier, (edited )

These are all realities of our economy in general and are unrelated to inflation! I’m not saying everything is rosy. Like our economy in 2019 was perfect. I’m pointing out purchasing power on average is the same before the pandemic as it is now, on average. So if you’re dissatisfied it’s not inflation. I’m trying to get people to move past this whole all our problems are from inflation thing. Which is just not supported by any data. How about we talk about income inequality? How about we talk about tying our Healthcare to our job? How about we talk about half of all companies flagrantly breaking laws and union busting during labor union negotiations? How about we talk about the insane concentration of wealth and inability of our tax system to deal with this investor class, leading to high deficits that can’t cover very necessary social services?

These are all important problems you’ve brought up. None are to do with inflation being out of control. And these lazy sensationalist media stories with out of context numbers where “eggs expensive, wow,” is just distracting from issues that actually are still plaguing us! By design or laziness I do not know.

natarey,

And I’m telling you that your approach to doing this is, rhetorically, disastrous. You come across as both smug and dismissive of people’s suffering and anxiety – and your response to reading me say that musn’t be, “Well, this person is irrational and not willing to engage with data.”

Yes, people are dissatisfied with basically… all of how modern nation states are organized and run, from government to business to day-to-day social interactions.

But the whole premise of democracy is that the people, in aggregate, know best how to direct our lives. And what poll after poll says is, people are frustrated in particular with the perceived decline in their purchasing power. That perceived decline comes directly from making more money and yet only being able to afford the life they had before the round of inflation started. The very “wage growth” that you are claiming has mooted the issue of inflation.

So, even if it’s true that, on average, people’s spending power is the same now as it was before the pandemic – which may not be true, depending on whether the already wealthy, to whom most of the gains have gone since the pandemic, are skewing that average – that is not a victory. It is, at best, a depressing reminder that people live in a system that cares more about aggregate statistics on a balance sheet than it does about their actual lives.

Ranvier,

Where did I call it a victory? Maybe a very slight relative victory compared to the disastrous real wage loss that occured during inflation flights in the 1970s and 1980s and never really recovered until the 2010’s. I’m calling it a distraction from actual problems at this point.

Also it’s average wage growth across the whole country, people make more money as they advance in their careers. So average real wages across the entire economy remaining constant doesn’t literally mean individuals have not advanced in their own personal financial situation. It’s disingenuous to represent it that way.

natarey,

This is, like… you don’t hear yourself, do you?

Me: “People are miserable about the specific thing you’re pointing at to try dismiss discussion on this topic.”

You: “That’s because discussions on this topic are a distraction from problems that I deem more important.”

Me: “Okay, but you do realize that people don’t agree with your perception of the situation, or your prioritization of the problems, and that by insisting on this point in a pedantic way you come across as smug and dismissive.”

You: “Yes, but what about my perception of what’s an actual problem?”

You can shout from the rooftops that we have bigger fish to fry – and I might even agree with you – but people can’t even think about bigger problems as long as they’re struggling to pay the bills! People report having trouble paying the bills! Large swathes of the American public are drawing on their retirement savings to get by! Whether you think the inflation situation and its aftermath is an “actual problem”, telling people they’re wrong and throwing numbers at them is just not going to be an effective strategy here.

Ranvier, (edited )

You aren’t hearing me. And you’re (literally) putting words in my mouth. Last comment from me.

If everyone is screaming about going on inflation fighting crusades and look how bad inflation is, meanwhile inflation is flat now and purchasing power is the same as it has been. Well you’re not gonna improve anything for anyone by focusing on inflation any further at this point (unless you’re proposing increasing interest rates to the point that you crash the economy enough to cause deflation after no one can afford anything so prices have to drop, or switching to a centrally planned economy, I wouldn’t recommend either). So let’s talk about those many economic issues that are out of control that will improve the situation and ability of people to get things they want and need. Like improving income inequality. There’s a way to increase your purchasing power. Or making sure the rich pay their fair share so social security is solvent so people in retirement and not working get increases compensating for inflation. Feel free to go on harping about inflation that’s not even happening any more though I guess.

ryathal,

Rent and housing are under a supply crunch, unless the population stops growing, or construction speed doubles, nothing is going to drop prices.

wildginger,

I mean, legislation could easily drop prices. Our government reigning in unjustified price hikes would absolutely stop the unjustified price hikes.

guacupado,

The rich people already buying homes now would just buy the new homes. Even brand new homes in my area are selling for almost half a million when just before Covid they’d be like 280k or 320k. People not to stop pretending like housing a supply issue and not a corporations-and-rich-people-buying-everything-up issue. When new construction comes up with these ridiculous prices, the people who already own multiple properties just buy it up because they can already easily afford to. All you need is to be able to get a few properties and after that the money makes itself which is why all of the sudden everyone’s interested in real estate the last few years. Builders don’t care about it because there are still companies and people able to pay these obnoxious prices. Don’t even get me started on how everyone thinks they’re a genius for realizing how profitable buying homes to use as Airbnbs is.

trash80,

Just in time for the election year.

FlyingSquid,
@FlyingSquid@lemmy.world avatar

Yeah, that crafty Biden pulled the inflation lever in the Oval Office. It’s right next to the gas prices lever.

trash80,

I was thinking about the state the house of representatives has been in.

FlyingSquid,
@FlyingSquid@lemmy.world avatar

They also do not control inflation so that it goes down in election years. The economy is nowhere near that simple.

Slappula,

Not to mention that the majority party in the house has done nothing but fight with each other and try to impeach Biden.

trash80,

The article is about a survey of 38 business economists. They don’t control inflation either.

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

The survey contains such rosy news as:

Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation—excluding food and energy costs—but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Board’s 2% target before year-end 2024

and

Fewer respondents than in the October 2023 Outlook survey expect a recession within the next 12 months, with more than three in four assigning a probability of 50% or less.

Neglecting to mention they surveyed 52 persons in October and 40 persons in December.

nabe.com/…/October-2023-Business-Conditions-Surve…

nabe.com/…/December_2023_Outlook_Survey_Summary.a…

FlyingSquid,
@FlyingSquid@lemmy.world avatar

Okay? What’s your point? Biden and congress still don’t control inflation.

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

No one is claiming that economists control inflation. To the extent that anyone does, it's the board of the Federal Reserve when they set the prime interest rate, but even then. that's only one factor that contributes to inflation, though it is a pretty significant one.

What economists can do, however, is accurately describe inflation and, to an extent, make reasonably informed predictions. A weatherman isn't a bad weatherman because he correctly told you that it's raining.

militaryintelligence,

The poor and middle class are sowing, the rich are reaping

Wilzax,

Economists predict that now that the rich and ruling class have had a chance to get even rocher even faster, the rest of us will be allowed to catch our breaths just long enough to avoid sweeping reforms and revolutions the next time they pull this bullshit!

Bakkoda,

They found the sweet spot between oops we broke it again and these poor people seem to be actually accumulating savings

piecat,

Nah we’ve just become too dependent

afraid_of_zombies,

Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes

wildginger,

Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.

If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.

afraid_of_zombies,

Right except people aren’t lemmings. Just because I hear some talking head say how he thinks there will be a recession in a month doesn’t mean I cut all spending.

wildginger,

… What? Did you click on the wrong comment?

afraid_of_zombies,

No.

wildginger,

You wanna try your comment again, then, and make it relevant to the comment youre clicking on?

Or was the comment being gibberish intentional?

afraid_of_zombies,

I don’t see what is confusing. You made the claim that the act of predicting a recession can cause a recession and stated a mechanism. I pointed out that predictions of recessions are rarely accurate and the mechanism doesnt work the way you described.

wildginger,

Yeah, see, this is why I think you clicked on the wrong comment.

I said that an economy is a result of humans acting, and that the act of stating a recession is coming is enough to change peoples actions to either cause or prevent a recession.

You then launched into some unrelated nonsense about being lemmings.

Do you need help finding the comment you meant to respond to?

afraid_of_zombies,

Again. You can’t just declare or undeclare a recession

wildginger,

You really struggle with reading, eh sport? Not one for grasping words?

Do you wanna try responding to things Ive said? Isntead of whatever that ghost in your head is whispering to you?

afraid_of_zombies,

Angry

wildginger,

Im sure you are sweetheart, but I can help you find the person you thought you were talking to if you need. That, or your chaperone?

afraid_of_zombies,

What are you on about?

wildginger,

The irony

Good luck dude

PreviouslyAmused,

An individual is not a lemming, no. But people? People are scared, stupid, lemmings who will follow the crowd, almost every time.

We’re social creatures, designed to work in groups. The downside (or upside I guess) is that people do follow the crowd.

afraid_of_zombies,

If people followed the crowd vaccination rates would be 100%. Remind me again what they really are. People, real freaken people, make bad decisions, they don’t listen to experts, they expert shop, they go against the grain, they go against what they are told they should do. They are brave, cowardly, stupid, smart, ruthless, and nice.

This is why economist is bull crap. They build these models assuming the very worst about humanity and demand we all act that way. So of course if your base assumption is that humans blindly trust anyone who calls themselves an expert and can only think short term they would sell everything if they hear a whisper of recession.

I look at the numbers for investing not what some moron on TV shooting stuff has to say.

youtu.be/gUkbdjetlY8?si=zaw0AV3QvbN6PXYv

Remember this? Nah bet you don’t.

Pickle_Jr,

Any witches I can follow on Mastodon who provide stock analysis???

afraid_of_zombies,

No idea. Just buy and hold index funds and you will be fine.

EatATaco,

This isn’t even remotely true, why is it being upvoted?

afraid_of_zombies,

Maybe because it is true and no one wants to hear government economists bullshit about how everything is fine when everything is not fucking fine.

So sick of economist lying crap. Telling us we can’t have universal healthcare and we can’t get rid of student loan debt but we have to give free money to banks and trade with countries that have slavery.

EatATaco,

But it’s simply untrue.

Here is goldman sachs saying, over a year ago, that a path to a soft landing is hard but feasible. Here is an economist, from over a year ago, predicting that the chance of a soft landing was going up. Here are 3 economists writing for the Harvard business reviewing saying, back in Februrary, that the chances of a soft landing were good and calls for a recession were premature.

The whole point of the fed’s policy on the rates was to tamp down on inflation while at the same time avoiding a recession. They are, of course, economists. At this point we look like we have good odds to pull of what they were intending to pull off.

I don’t know where you get your information from, but if you thought no one thought was predicting a soft landing until a few months ago, well it’s safe to say you don’t really pay much attention to these things because plenty of economists have been predicting it likely, or going to happen, even for a long time. I’ve only heard a handful of economists even come close to virtually assuring a recession.

afraid_of_zombies,

A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.

EatATaco,

A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.

Untrue, as it proves, without a doubt proves that:

Every economists was predicting recession a few months back.

is untrue.

This is the advantage of basing your opinions off the facts, tas he facts actually support your claims.

afraid_of_zombies,

Can’t hear you over the sound of thousand of government economists saying everything is fine

EatATaco,

The fed is a government economist, at least in some regard, so even that claim falls pretty empty.

But notice how I was able to back up my claims with facts, you just moved the goal posts, without admitting fault, to a new unsupported claim.

You’re not clever, you’re a joke.

afraid_of_zombies,

So boring and so blocked.

EatATaco,

Blocking when you can’t defend the point. Sticking your fingers in your ears like a toddler, instead of simply learning.

Restaldt,

Just in time for a tumultuous election

agitatedpotato,

Here’s my gripe with economists. Even if this wasn’t true, wouldn’t be in the best interest of the economy to lie about it so the market doesn’t get spooked and end up doing things that would make inflation worse?

What other ‘science’ has that nifty feature in it?

electriccars,

My initial thoughts exactly.

ryathal,

You can make money on the economy going up or down, so there’s generally economists predicting both. There’s also a lot of economists that love to be the one to predict a recession, so they pretty much always predict one.

afraid_of_zombies,

Regular medical science, it is called the placebo effect. It only works a bit. Not like you are going to regrow a limb, more like if you had a 40% of getting better on your own you now have a 50%.

Truth is economists can’t predict shit and recessions happen based on numbers not based on feelings. We can’t click our heels together and wish our way to a better world.

willis936,

A lot of the “scientists” that get laughed out of their field but get their Netflix “documentary” deal seem to use this neat trick.

They’re particularly good at starting with a conclusion then shoehorning in a bad analysis with uncompelling evidence.

eek2121,

I am unemployed and have been for many months. I have never had issues finding a job, but finding one lately has been impossible. I know of 3 others in the same boat as I. I think that a recession is inevitable at this point. Lucky for me, I have other sources of income. I did have to drastically cut back spending, however.

spyd3r,
@spyd3r@sh.itjust.works avatar

There is definitely something going on lately. I’m always looking for better jobs on indeed, professional recruiting services etc, trying to improve my situation.

In the last 4 months its been seemingly impossible to even get a response, and I know I’m more than qualified for these positions I’m applying to, and I’ve never had an issue before, even during severe economic downturns.

lledrtx,

This is a nightmare scenario for me. What are the other sources of income, if you don’t mind me asking?

eek2121,

Website advertising and subscription revenue for websites I have owned for years. Spouse income as well.

ryathal,

Wow we went through nearly 3 years of recession start tomorrow and now it’s not even going to happen. Even weather reporters are better.

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

Plenty of economists have been saying that avoiding a significant recession has been entirely possible. A recession is generally defined by at least two successive quarters of GDP decline, and while this did technically happen in 2022, the second quarter was only -0.6%, and the following quarter was back up to +2.7%.

It really needs to be stressed that not all bad economic circumstances are recessions. That's a very specific thing.

ryathal,

Recession doesn’t have a hard definition. At best economists only admit to recessions when they are already in progress.

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

There's some amount of fuzziness, yes, and as I said, most economists wouldn't call that 2022 dip a meaningful recession, but regardless, a recession is absolutely, by definition, a contraction in GDP. That has not been happening. GDP growth has been above +2% for the last five quarter, and in Q3 of this year, it was +5%.

There is no economist alive that will tell you that five quarters of GDP growth is a recession, because words have meanings.

Edit: And before you ask, yes, even adjusting for inflation, it's been five quarters of GDP growth. This doesn't imply that there are no economic problems happening, but a recession is not one of them. Not all bad weather is a tornado.

MirthfulAlembic,
@MirthfulAlembic@lemmy.world avatar

I don’t necessarily disagree with your overall point, but GDP is just a measure commonly used to designate an economic recession. Downward movement in GDP is not the definition of a recession, though it’s a reliably used indicator. There’s a reason the US uses a voting body of economists to say there’s a recession rather than an algorithm linked to GDP numbers.

afraid_of_zombies,

I don’t know why we let the economists define our terms. Be like doctors redefining illness to only being one disease and announcing that they cured all illnesses

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

No, that would be like people re-defining all sickness to be a cold, and then getting annoyed when their doctors tell them that Chlamydia is not, in fact, a cold and won't be cured by time and Tylenol.

afraid_of_zombies,

No I had it right the first time, but thanks for your “help”. I know what YOU economists did and don’t need you to explain your version of events.

wildginger, (edited )

… No, you fucked it up both times

If you think professionals defining the terms of their profession is outrageous, graduating high school is gonna drop a brick on your head

afraid_of_zombies,

Nope.

wildginger,

Lol, aight bud, you keep going on thinking you invent definitions of words used by people in jobs you dont work

That will get you as far as a fly pisses, but dont let that stop ya

1847953620,

Even economists don’t like to use the exact same metrics and parameters to “define” a recession every time. And most importantly, a significant portion like to do it after the fact. Because saying something like “a lack of growth for x consecutive quarters”, etc, doesn’t cover all possibilities.

Cue all the people that think a single definition they learned about is the only one that exists and should exist for no discernable practical reason.

wildginger,

“I dunno why we let doctors define all our illnesses.” Yeah it might be cause they are more informed on the nuance of their work to know what defined the terms

Shocks me the confidence some folk have about topics theyve never studied

1847953620,

Apples and oranges. Economics has always struggled with mathematical rigor because it’s a highly dynamic system with too many variables that are impossible to control if only to study well, so our understanding of it and how to shape it is still growing. Most importantly, it doesn’t have the same level of certainty in its claims from a scientific perspective as a panel of doctors would have in discussing illnesses. There’s also the difference in political stakes. The economy is doing the same no matter whether you are able to affix a label on it or not (that many economists won’t want to decide on until it’s behind us). We’re just arguing on whether we get to use that label, when most people in the U.S. are struggling. They’re focusing on what affects them, whereas economists are also looking at a bigger range of other factors, including how businesses and the higher classes are faring. This is where the divide comes from. At the end of the day, you’re not going to convince most people they aren’t in pain, because they are, based on metrics they don’t care about.

wildginger,

Wait, sorry, you were agreeing with the other guy who thinks economists shouldnt be the people defining economic terms?

So, what, you think dentists should be defining economic terms? Plumbers?

BraveSirZaphod,
BraveSirZaphod avatar

TIL I am an economist

afraid_of_zombies,

Sorry about economist apologist. Better?

wildginger,

Weather doesnt read the weather report and change itself in response.

People read economics reports and spend differently in response.

Start giving the northern wind a newspaper, and you will see the weather report falter.

Rapidcreek,

"After a historic run-up in inflation, Americans are now starting to see something they haven’t in three years: deflation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“To be sure, deflation—that is, falling prices—is largely confined to appliances, furniture, used cars and other goods. Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards.”

“But economists say goods prices likely have further to fall, which will ease inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, perhaps as early as the second half of next year.”

HubertManne,
HubertManne avatar

alls that matters is housing, food, and energy.

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