Again, the reminder that national polls are pointless. Washington, Oregon, California are all voting Biden, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are all voting Trump.
The states to watch are as follows and they have been leaning Trump harder and harder.
Pennsylvania - Biden vs. Trump, tied at 48. Add Kennedy, Stein and West and it’s a Trump win +2.
This is why I hate polls. One dickhead says one is leading and another dickhead is saying the other is leading. And this was posted a few hours before your article. Fuck polls, go vote.
even the direct link itself shows Biden ahead in the majority of polls they use to calculate the average.
Not by enough, but keep in mind this is all based on essentially 2,000 people who answer their telephone for random strangers and then talk to them for 15 minutes about their beliefs. The largest sample size is 9k people. There are 160 million voters.
This alone makes me doubt every poll ever. What kind of monster answers the phone and talks to a stranger about politics?
There was a time 30-40 years ago where you didn’t get robocalls and scam calls all the time. Prime Boomer years. So there is some behavior from that time/generation. Senior citizens also also the phone frequently because they are worried about missing bad news or engagement opportunities from family. There is now a 100% overlap with the groups “boomer” and “senior citizen”.
Most GenX remember this time, but are young enough to know most calls are scams or robocalls. Millennials and younger never knew a time without robocalls.
But there’s considerable uncertainty in those numbers…
Our averages also show Trump leading in most swing states, though there is enough uncertainty that Biden could easily be ahead in enough to win the Electoral College.
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