Looks like we're seeing the first CME impacts now; a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse warning has been issued, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are already being observed. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
Geomagnetic storm conditions have immediately reached G3 (Strong) levels, and are expected to intensify further in the next several minutes/hours. — #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
Here's the magnetometer data from GOES-16 and GOES-18 for the last 3 days, and the last 6 hours — that's one hell of an impulse. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
And, because there obviously wasn't enough going on right now, an R1 (Minor) radio blackout is also in progress due to flare activity from AR3664. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm threshold has also been exceeded, with proton flux rapidly increasing at GOES-18. (Looks like we're getting a little of everything today.) #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
Geomagnetic storm conditions have reached G3 (Strong) levels for the 1800-2100 UTC synoptic period, with a return to G4 (Severe) levels expected again within the next 20-30 minutes. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
SWPC uses a 3-hour synoptic period (starting at 0000 UTC) for calculating geomagnetic field disturbances and determining storm levels for forecasts and warnings; values reset when each new synoptic period starts. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
Also keeping an eye on yet another long-duration X-ray flare event from AR3664 producing R1 (Minor) radio blackout conditions. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
Latest USAF magnetometer analysis report shows G5-equivalent geomagnetic field disturbances at every single station for the 3-hour period from 1600-1900 UTC.
It's looking somewhat possible that this geomagnetic storm event might reach the G5 threshold at some point in the next hour... #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
It's also probable that this is only the first of several CME impacts, depending on whether (and how many) later CMEs caught up to and merged with earlier ones — the most recent WSA-Enlil model run shows a series of successive arrivals, with the second expected to be the strongest. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
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