Ukraine lowers its conscription age to 25 to plug a shortfall in troop numbers fighting Russia

Ukraine on Wednesday lowered the military conscription age from 27 to 25 in an effort to replenish its depleted ranks after more than two years of war following Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The new mobilization law came into force a day after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed it. Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, passed it last year.

It was not immediately clear why Zelenskyy took so long to sign the measure into law. He didn’t make any public comment about it, and officials did not say how many new soldiers the country expected to gain or for which units.

Conscription has been a sensitive matter in Ukraine for many months amid a growing shortage of infantry on top of a severe ammunition shortfall that has handed Russia the battlefield initiative. Russia’s own problems with manpower and planning have so far prevented it from taking full advantage of its edge.

anticolonialist,

What happened to ‘war over in 2 weeks?’ The worlds largest military and all of Europe providing weapons and its gone nowhere, except into the pockets of war hawks. At this point it should be considered a long con

assassin_aragorn,

Armed resistance against a former colonizer trying to reassert colonial power is never a long con.

fuego,

It is absolutely a long con.

I feel bad for the Ukrainian cannon fodder that actually believed they had a chance.

Their purpose was to weaken Russia and strengthen profits for the Western MIC.

intensely_human,

I almost went over there and fought Russia. I’m really glad I didn’t now.

I suspect I will be fighting Russia or its allies within a few years anyway, and I’d much rather be wearing the uniform of my own country.

Allero,

The quick war narrative was originally coined by Russian media, though. Not Ukrainian one, and neither of the governments said that.

anticolonialist,

The US government claimed that, with constant gaslighting bullshit like Putin has cancer, fighting with WWII shovels, their economy in shambles, etc.

nova_ad_vitum,

What happened to ‘war over in 2 weeks?’

Who said that , when, and why do you care?

matjoeman,

Interesring that it’s already so high, don’t most countries have conscription at 18?

barsoap, (edited )

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/Ukraine_2023_population_pyramid.svg

Few countries have demographics so fucked up as Ukraine. It’s the same “WWII generation can’t have kids on account of being dead” and “everyone got scared of their future prospects when the USSR fell and people are too well-educated to bring kids into an uncertain future” double-dip that also Russia suffers from, though Ukraine has an even lower fertility rate, 1.16 vs. 1.49, and overall that wasp waist is way more pronounced, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg. Ukraine is also losing plenty of working population to the EU, has way before people began to flee the invasion. The drain is on well-educated people, people coming to the EU as seasonal workers in agriculture etc. rather funnel money back to Ukraine.

The situation would be a catastrophe of Korean proportions if Ukrainians managed to be as in denial about the situation as Koreans are, but they’re not. It’s still severely fucked, though^1^.

The size of the cohorts that now got added is in comparison tiny, as you see, and I’d be surprised if they’re sending them to the front. It’s going to be training in all that newfangled western stuff and stand-off warfare for them, not the trenches.

^1^ I can’t help but ask: It is said that one of the main cultural differences between Germany and Austria is that in Germany, bad situations are serious but not hopeless while in Austria they’re hopeless, but not serious. What’s Ukraine’s take?

samus12345,
@samus12345@lemmy.world avatar

Was curious how the US stacked up and wow, that’s a huge difference! Interesting to see the Boomer Hershey’s Kiss shape at the top.

assassin_aragorn,

If you’re angry at Ukraine, you aren’t looking or thinking deeply enough. This is only happening because Russia is trying to conquer Ukraine with their own conscripted soldiers. All of this ends when Russia stops their invasion.

You want the deaths to stop? Tell Putin to fuck himself with a rusty cactus and withdraw.

Plopp,

Who’s angry at Ukraine?

AnUnusualRelic,
@AnUnusualRelic@lemmy.world avatar

Putin is, for some very bizarre reason of his own. That’s about it I think.

Thirdborne,

Remember when Wagner Group accidentally found out they had wide open roads all the way to Moscow from Ukraine? That’s what Ukraine is to Putin. Along with natural gas and some other economic factors. None of it inscrutable.

samus12345,
@samus12345@lemmy.world avatar

I was surprised the age wasn’t lower to begin with. I was expecting it’d be 18.

Pringles,

That’s because both Ukraine and Russia are about to have a generation that is much smaller in numbers due to the lingering effects of WW2. Especially Ukraine is hesitant of throwing that generation into the meat grinder of war and it is speculated that this was one of the factors regarding the timing of this war, because in a way it was now or never for Russia.

Allero,

While Putin is undoubtedly an aggressor and the reason this entire thing is happening (and it would be amazing if someone finally stopped him), Zelensky does have power over the situation.

It’s just that he’s not gonna give anything up as well, so it ends up in a stalemate. One side tries to prove Russia’s a power to be reckoned with, the other - that you can’t just attack a country while everyone is okay with it (something that has been then dispoven in many, many cases, unfortunately, so it’s not as world-tilting as some might think)

Out of two evils, Ukraine is certainly the more righteous. But there’s a line after which you’re fine fighting with a madman who’ll be fine evaporating your entire population over something you might rather give up (and that’s not the existence of Ukraine, mind you) to save countless lives.

Zelensky has been offered to start peace talks by just about everyone in the world, not just Russian side itself, yet there he is, sending more and more men to war, men who don’t want to be there, who are not ready to sacrifice their lives in this conflict, who value themselves more than some plots of land. When you have to force people to die in order to prove your point, maybe it’s time to think again.

And of course, Putin does the same thing over a much stupider cause; this is by no means a pro-Putin or even pro-Russian argument. This is an argument for life, for the people who die in the trenches, while world leaders can’t decide who’s more right. Fuck it, stop the war, and do the talking.

P.S. Feel free to downvote if you like, but I’d be happy to see valid arguments, not just arrows down.

barsoap,

Feel free to downvote if you like, but I’d be happy to see valid arguments, not just arrows down.

  1. Should Zelensky start talking about giving up territory he’d go the way of Yanukovych. Polls show that Ukrainians would keep fighting even if all support from the west were to dry up.
  2. This is not about land. It’s about the people living here and the survival of Ukraine as a nation. Which btw includes Russian native speakers, Zelensky himself is one.
  3. Moscow’s version of peace is “you roll over and stop defending yourself so I have an easier time kicking you”. Making “peace” with Russia only means 10000 Buchas. Western pacifists falling for that line are some of the most fatuous people I’ve ever witnessed, to the point that I don’t make a distinction between Russian asset and useful idiot, any more.
Allero, (edited )

1.Interesting point, could you please link the polls? Also, how recent are they? From what I’ve personally gathered, the sentiment is quite divided, with the highest support among fleeing civilians and western Ukrainians and lowest among families of drafted men and people remaining on the country’s east.

2.Lives of civilians are not threatened by peaceful Russian takeover. While there may be a concern about people serving or supporting Ukrainian armed forces throughout the war, one that needs to be directly discussed, the rest should be perfectly fine. Ukrainians inside Russia are treated no different from ethnic Russians, and the only kind of “cleansing” that is possible is likely assimilation.

3.Peace with Ukraine should absolutely have NATO involved one way or the other. Ukraine needs security guarantees, and obviously not from Russia. Luckily, as far as I’m aware, NATO is willing to directly back Ukraine up when peace is established, and ascension is on the table. Then, kicking Ukraine becomes nearly impossible.

barsoap,

and lowest among families of drafted men and people remaining on the country’s east.

I wouldn’t call the opinion of people staying underground in Avdivka until the very day it fell more representative than those who fled to the west and want to return. Of course they will have more attritted morale, less capable of seeing how the thing can still be won.

Lives of civilians are not threatened by peaceful Russian takeover.

And you have the mass graves to prove that I presume? I already mentioned Bucha, now let me also mention that Russia practically eradicated the male population of the occupied territories by throwing them in the meat grinder with WWI weapons. The “LPR forces” etc. were just another version of their penalty battalions.

Peace with Ukraine should absolutely have NATO involved one way or the other.

Not a thing Russia is willing to agree to. Or I should rather say Putin: The existence of a democratic Ukraine, even as a rump state, is a threat to his regime security.

Allero,

We’re crossing very quickly into the level of speculation, which is not a good ground for discussion.

Still, if you need my opinions: Nothing stops Zelensky and NATO to call for joint peace talks with Russia; in fact, many NATO member countries suggested exactly that. It is then remained to be seen on what Russia answers, but the attempt should be there, and there’s a high chance it will be answered in a positive way. Russia has no interest in keeping this war going, too, and has little perspective of breaking the stalemate in a short time.

The LPR/DPR forces are not civilians, and I’m talking about peaceful transition of some of the occupied territories into Russia, which is totally unrelated to what you say. Still, from the perspective of those forces, they were already fighting there with those weapons, but now they got actual military backing.

No war can truly be won, and if what it takes for Ukrainian victory is many more years of war and millions of lives, as well as unfathomable economic losses, is it worth it? That’s not to mention that nothing indicates Ukraine is likely to win and restore its territory at all.

barsoap,

and there’s a high chance it will be answered in a positive way.

You mean Russia does a complete 180 all of a sudden, that is. If they want to, sure, they can give us a call but until they actually do it doesn’t make sense to “call for peace talks”: Has been done, Russia refused anything that would be acceptable to anyone else.

The LPR/DPR forces are not civilians,

Indeed not. They’re civilians forced at gun-point and point to the heads of their family to pick up arms and be counted as combatants. When Ukraine shoots them, they’re not civilians. When they get forced into service, they are civilians.

and I’m talking about peaceful transition of some of the occupied territories into Russia,

What do you mean? According to Russia those territories already are Russia. Even parts that aren’t occupied.

No war can truly be won, and if what it takes for Ukrainian victory is many more years of war and millions of lives, as well as unfathomable economic losses, is it worth it?

Yes. Because if you don’t stop a bully in their tracks you embolden them and there’s going to be a next victim.

The Brits have a word for people like you: Appeasers. It’s not a nice word.

Allero,

No 180 required. Russia is willing to come to peace, and will probably require succession of Donbass, which is something Zelensky is adamant about not doing despite being offered that way out.

For all I’m aware, LPR/DPR combatants are not forced into service at gunpoint. You know who is? Ukrainian soldiers (and some Russian ones, too).

I mean internationally recognized transition and end of the war.

Who’s gonna be a next victim, if I may ask? Just about every neighbor of Russia to the West is already part of NATO (except Belarus, and, well, Ukraine), and most of those on the South and East have some form of guarantees of their own or ability to stand up for themselves and kick Russia’s ass.

The aftermath of this conflict is that the countries at highest risk already defended and prepared themselves, so that Putin cannot call for another war.

Also, let’s avoid turning it personal. Either keep it civil or end it. I offer you an option to leave the discussion if it triggers you.

barsoap,

No 180 required. Russia is willing to come to peace, and will probably require succession of Donbass,

Ah, yes, the “stop fighting and let me kick you” school of pacifism.

Zelensky is adamant about not doing despite being offered that way out.

If nothing else, he’s a politician. Politicians want to stay in power, not be disposed off by their people.

For all I’m aware, LPR/DPR combatants are not forced into service at gunpoint.

en.wikipedia.org/…/2022_mobilization_in_the_Donet…

Who’s gonna be a next victim, if I may ask? Just about every neighbor of Russia to the West is already part of NATO

If NATO drops Ukraine Putin will consider NATO weak, a paper tiger, and not hesitate attacking NATO land. Especially if the US loses the rest of the bit of sense they have and re-elect Trump. They of course won’t get anywhere with that and it will be nigh impossible to keep the Poles from marching straight to Moscow, the mad bastards aren’t afraid to get nuked over it, but that doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t try.

And no Georgia and the -stans aren’t really up to defending themselves, not against a Russia which had a couple of years to lick their wounds.

Allero,

Fair pick against “let us kick each other to death”

The will to stay in power population be damned is bloody dictatorship.

Thank you for info on LPR/DPR mobilization. Worth noting it happened in all participants of the conflict, however.

NATO is very much not a paper tigerz and the risk is just not worth taking.

barsoap,

The will to stay in power population be damned is bloody dictatorship.

That’s not what I said, or what the situation on the ground is. If Zelensky were to trade away territory the people would get rid of him. Ukraine is a democracy, even if he wanted to he couldn’t act against the overwhelming will of the people.

Worth noting it happened in all participants of the conflict, however.

It’s a massive difference whether you draft for offensive or defensive purposes. Also, whether or not you throw people at the enemy with or without training and even weapons. That’s a thing that very much does not happen in Ukraine.

NATO is very much not a paper tigerz and the risk is just not worth taking.

Objectively, yes. But what matters for Putin’s decision is not objective reality but his subjective judgement. “Talk softly and carry a big stick” doesn’t really work if you have someone who thinks that “talks softly” means “doesn’t have it in them to use the stick”. Russia overall seems to think that ruthlessness is something you have to train, develop, and they pride themselves in having done it – in reality, it’s the other way around.

Allero,

Is an overwhelming will and war sentiment even there? Because I can’t seem to notice signs of that.

My point around NATO is that since it’s objectively not a “paper tiger”, it will respond should Putin be mad enough to attack a NATO country. The escalation will be very quick, and the reaction very overwhelming for Russian forces. And, as politically mad as Putin is, he does understand a thing or two about politics and NATO.

barsoap,

Is an overwhelming will and war sentiment even there? Because I can’t seem to notice signs of that.

You mean of the people in the street cheering for marching troops kind of thing? Ukraine isn’t the country for that, they don’t like war, but when needs be then needs be and the polls show that.

And, as politically mad as Putin is, he does understand a thing or two about politics and NATO.

His understanding is of the cunning, not smart kind. If he was actually smart he wouldn’t have started this whole shitshow in the first place. He would’ve long understood that his underlings are feeding him bad info out of a desire to look good and counter-steered, and not made various other fatal strategic blunders. Maybe there’s a reason why he never ranked higher than Lieutenant in the KGB.

Allero,

Could you please link the polls again?

He’s smart enough not to attack a NATO country, and even if not, he’d quickly pay the full price for such actions.

kreiger,

If you were the one who has “power over the situation”, please tell us: Which parts of your country would you be willing to hand over to Putin, when he comes asking for them?

Allero, (edited )

Donbass, most likely.

That’s what Putin needs the most and at the same time the region with worst sentiment towards Ukraine, even among ethnic Ukrainians (not to mention ethnic Russians comprising ~40% of the population). There can be a lot of speculations about the true sentiment of the locals (to many of whom I talked and they mostly just don’t care or are pro-Russian, but barely ever actively pro-Ukraine), but this is the place that fought Ukraine off long before the massive Russian invasion.

Now, Donbass is a source of quite a few natural resources, which is one of the key reasons Ukraine even cares about it despite the popular local sentiment (besides territorial integrity, that is), but in order to return facilities under control, it’s not enough to stop the war and officially declare it being Ukraine, it also requires the state to keep fighting local forces who are still not happy about the perspective - something that current Ukraine is questionably capable of.

So, Donbass it is. Russia happy, Ukraine free of a lot of headache, people don’t die, yay.

barsoap,

Going by this comment I’ll guess you’re American.

Thus let me repeat the question as you didn’t answer it: Which part of The United States would you be willing to hand over to Putin? He’s shown interest in Alaska, you’re up for that?

Allero,

I’m Russo-Ukrainian (Ukrainian father, Russian mother) living in Russia and having close ones on both sides.

Assuming Russia somehow has military superiority, Alaska is razed and US military has to mobilize everyone, lowering the age for drafts to fill the gaps in dying manpower, yes, I would consider that possibility.

And if Japan somehow dominates weakened Russia, it would make sense to give up Kuril Islands and Sakhalin, or whatever they strike for, in order not to turn entire country into a meat grinder.

In both cases, it would also require a third party to provide security guarantees against further invasions.

Otakulad,

Just curious, what do you think should be on the table at the peace talks?

For me, it should be the following:

Russia leaves Ukraine including Crimea and vows to never invade again. I know it didn’t work when Ukraine gave up their nukes for the same vow but one can hope.

Russia pays Ukraine back for all the damage it has done. They were the aggressors, they need to pay up.

All prisoners who were taken to Russia, including children, are to be returned.

No interference if Ukraine wants to join NATO and the EU.

I’m not an expert in peace talks, but I feel the above is fair.

Allero,

It is completely fair, but the problem is, it’s in no interest for Russia.

Peace talks must include benefits for all sides, otherwise they’ll fail.

I’d say Ukraine should at least recognize Crimea as Russia, and very likely Donbass too, or at least give it certain level of autonomy. The rest of Ukraine is actually of less interest to Russia, so stopping there would probably more than satisfy Putin.

Ukraine, on its hand, should receive NATO security guarantees, preferably ascension, without Putin standing in the way of it. Russia should also pay reparations to Ukraine and release all prisoners, yes. Ukrainian side must release Russian prisoners too.

Regardless of the side Donbass ends up on, Russia must participate in recovery of the region with finances and manpower.

reverendsteveii,

Peace talks must include benefits for all sides, otherwise they’ll fail.

For the aggressor to benefit is encouraging more aggression, not less.

Allero,

For the aggressor not to benefit means war will continue on.

reverendsteveii,

oh no, aggressors lose all the time.

Allero,

You missed the point. Here, aggressor isn’t forced to capitulate, and there’s little that can be done aboiut it right now except putting thousands into meat grinder for some subtle hope of victory years into the future.

Otakulad,

I completely disagree. Russia should receive nothing for what they have done.

Imagine this, Russia decides that Alaska is theirs even though it was sold to the U.S. in 1867. They invade and make it half way into the state. Should the U.S. have peace talks with Russia and say you can have half the state or keep fighting and push them completely out? I guessing most Americans would say F off Russia, get out of our country.

Russia leaving Ukraine is the only justifiable outcome from this invasion. If a child breaks his siblings toy maliciously, you don’t reward them for doing a bad thing. You punish that child for their actions. Putin is nothing more than a spoiled child, you shouldn’t reward him for his bad behavior.

Allero,

I feel like the mistake many make is comparing war to school bullies and children breaking toys.

There’s a big difference, though. In a war, people die. And sometimes, it may actually be wiser to give something up to save people’s lives, and then regroup in a way to prevent that from ever happening again than to try and “punish” a country with great ability to cause a lot more damage.

By trying to “teach Putin a lesson”, we tend to ignore the fact that he’s not a particularly good pupil and he rules a major army that currently razes Ukraine to the ground.

pathief,
@pathief@lemmy.world avatar

The problem is that Russia has far more resources than Ukraine and they have an upper hand in this war. They do not wish to leave empty handed. As sad as it is, for peace to happen Ukraine is going to have to lose something.

Putin already said he doesn’t want peace when the opponent has a shortage of ammo so this discussion is irrelevant anyway.

I wish we did more for Ukraine, it’s deeply saddening to see the news :(

barsoap,

It is completely fair, but the problem is, it’s in no interest for Russia.

It’s absolutely in Russia’s interest, even the reparations – they can pay them in mining concessions, noone would mind. Russia is paying 300 million a day for the war, that’s two top-notch brand-new hospitals built from scratch. Per day.

It’s not in Putin’s interest, though. The days for “Comrade Vladimirovich, we think it is time to rest on your laurels and retire to your Dacha” is over, he’s gone too far for that, even a regime-internal coup would mean he’s done for.

Allero,

Good point on the distinction - while Russia loses on that, Putin loses much more. Essentially, he just cannot afford to lose.

Even still, Russia itself won’t be better off if it just leaves and pays back everything - it’s not only reparations, but also all the infrastructural investment etc, as well as trust of the people of Crimea (who really were supportive of the annexation, can tell you that from the ground) and many on the Donbass, as well as the crucial military base of Sevastopol, which was probably big part of the reason for the annexation to begin with - it’s so important, in fact, that Sevastopol is the only city besides Moscow and Saint Petersburg with a special federal status.

Crimea is also dominated by ethnic Russians (65%), not Ukrainians (15%), which further exacerbates the issue.

The problem is so bad even Navalny said it’s not easy to “just” return Crimea. Because it really isn’t, it’d be a shitshow now, with locals standing up against it, and Russia having to sacrifice much more than just a meaningless peninsula.

barsoap,

Crimea is also dominated by ethnic Russians (65%), not Ukrainians (15%), which further exacerbates the issue.

If anyone should get a say about what happens with Crimea then it’s the Tatars. Also you can’t trust any of the post-occupation numbers, plenty of reason to not tell FSB agents that you think you’re Ukrainian. People very much are in support of not being put through filtration camps, yes.

I’m Russo-Ukrainian (Ukrainian father, Russian mother) living in Russia and having close ones on both sides.

Ah. And you’re willing to give up the Kurill islands lmao. Have you ever considered that that’s not in any way comparable. Also, that Japan has kinda given up on the raping themselves through the population bit.

Could you please link the polls again?

They’re half a google away.

crucial military base

Russia’s position in the Baltic is a) fucked anyway and b) Russia has enough resources to relocate to Novorossiysk. I mean that’s where the fleet is right now anyway isn’t it it seems to be big enough for the three and a half ships that haven’t yet been promoted to submarines. The position in the Baltic is also fucked, to the point that Kaliningrad turned from asset to liability: It’s not surrounding the Baltic states any more, instead Finland and Sweden in NATO mean that it’s completely encircled. You still have Syria… though with the Siloviki deliberately ignoring ISIS-K that might not last forever, either. As said: They’re cunning, not smart. All tactics no strategy no big picture thoughts.

Meanwhile, China is eyeing the eastern warm-water ports. Tsar Putin will be known to history under the cognomen “the foolish”. If you’re out to preserve the Russian empire, cutting your losses now is the right call, before it’s too late and the whole thing collapses just like the district heating which could be fixed for something like three day’s worth of war costs. Have you any notion of what kind of long-term damage that kind of thing causes. You talk about Sevastopol, where are you going to get people to build a fleet from when mothers freeze with their babies in their apartments.

He’s smart enough not to attack a NATO country, and even if not, he’d quickly pay the full price for such actions.

You know what I think what’s happening here? You’re legitimately hoping for an end to the war and even Putin, but somehow expect Ukraine to do it for you. You’d like them to do it quickly, so you expect them to surrender. “Oh but it’s because reasons, and complications”, you say, smugly, unaware that all it’s about is you rationalising outsourcing your rebellion to the Ukrainians because you are still depoliticised. The Kremlin guards have fewer weapons than Ukraine and watch this.

Allero,

Why should that be Tatars of all people? Crimean tatars comprise about 10% of the population, and are already disproportionally vocal, which irritates a lot of people on the peninsula. If anything, majority of Crimean population sees them as problem rather than leading source of power, and while I can’t fully agree with that notion, it doesn’t change the fact that power to Crimean Tatars is a bad idea. They should be protected - to a degree - but letting them singlehandedly decide the future of the place is critically questionable.

You can check pre-occupation numbers on Crimean population collected by Ukraine, you’ll see the same picture. It’s not that FSB is warping data or people are scared - it’s that Crimea was only controlled by Ukraine for 60 years (1954-2014), and most of that history is was part of USSR anyway, so there wasn’t enough time to replace populations. Also, again, literally nothing bad happens to people of Ukrainian nationality inside Russia. Like, I have a branch of Ukrainian family here, it’s not dissidence to be of some origin. Ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea remained ethnic Ukrainians in Russian statistics.

Kurill islands were not to scale. You can change it to Kamchatka and Primorsky Krai, for example. Should make a fair share.

I found one poll by Gallup - news.gallup.com/…/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-eff… - which proves your point on majority of Ukrainians supporting the war, althouth it also notes the support is dropping, from 70% in 2022 to 60% in 2023 - and no numbers for 2024. I’d like to see what the sentiment is now - whether it gets to 50%, stays strong or falls down. It also demonstrates what I said earlier about highest support coming from regions largely directly unaffected by war. Besides, I also wonder how much the omnipresent SBU influenced the answers - we have to be fair and consider censorship and watching eyes on both sides of the conflict.

Sevastopol is an important point of access to the Black sea, allowing quicker deployment and easier portection of eastern part of the sea. Kaliningrad is still very relevant, as it is not encircled per se, but rather a reachable point inside the lines of potential enemy. I wouldn’t write it off for the potential of suprise actions in case of rapid delopments. I’m not a military expert, though, and can be wrong on some of that.

District heating failures are and were common, it’s just that they came more into focus. The issues with the system appeared long before the war, and fixing it costs way more than “three days of war costs”. And while I agree that those measures should have been taken long before and better instead the war, but we are where we are, and Crimean question is important and at the same time clusterfucked no matter how you look at it. You just try to make a case on why Russia should ignore it, consequences be damned.

I did watch the video. Both you and the author seem to be missing the point while trying to make it a lesson for the West (which currently degrades democracy under way more freedoms than Russians), thinking Russians are still politically indifferent, that they closed themselves off from the horrors of the war. Quite the opposite - the war turned to protest even those demographics who always stayed silent, and the horror of coming to war with a brotherly nation, one in which many of us have relatives in, rippled throughout society. My own relatives had a rocket coming into neighboring house. But the divide and conquer tactics succeeded already, and the only way you can proceed with from here is to silence or to jail, not to any meaningful civil victory. There’s simply not enough coordination to pull off a protest that would actually shake society. People are angry, afraid, and everything else, they generally despise Putin - but there’s so much control mechanisms that it’s nearly impossible to actually come together and make a change. And individually, your protest normally lasts a few seconds, and then you get to enjoy your prison time.

Also, the concept of common responsibility has been given in a way that smells of a blame game. No, not all Germans were responsible (in a sense of worthy of taking blame for the regime) for what happened in the Reich, it’s those who paraded it that actually got responsible, and others failed to stop them - bad that they didn’t, but shifting blame on them wouldn’t be fair. We can learn from their mistakes, and should learn from ours, on how to not get here in the first place, and take advantage if the system cracks.

barsoap,

Why should that be Tatars of all people?

The Russians certainly shouldn’t get a say, they’re settlers in occupied territory, one way or the other, starting with Katherine the Great. You can’t just deport people, settle your own, and say “Well, guess they’re the majority now they get to say what happens to the land”.

it’s that Crimea was only controlled by Ukraine for 60 years (1954-2014), and most of that history is was part of USSR anyway, so there wasn’t enough time to replace populations.

As said: Russification started way before that. After Ukraine’s independence the Tatar population in fact rebounded with people Stalin had deported moving back. Crimea voted to leave the USSR just as much as the rest of Ukraine, if anything the discussion was about being independent, not about staying with Russia. Independence (from Ukraine) then became less and less of an issue as Ukraine treated Crimea well, and independence would be difficult for such a small and import-dependent nation anyway.

Quite the opposite - the war turned to protest even those demographics who always stayed silent

Bullshit. The last time the silent demographics turned loud you had yourselves a February revolution. You’re not even at 1905 levels, yet.

No, not all Germans were responsible (in a sense of worthy of taking blame for the regime) for what happened in the Reich, it’s those who paraded it that actually got responsible

There’s a crucial distinction to be made here: No, the war crimes etc. are not my responsibility. I wasn’t even alive back then. But it is my responsibility to shape culture and politics in a way such that fascistic tendencies within the culture never surface (if you’re up for it, read Emmanuel Todd, Germany is dominated by stem families). Otherwise yes a resurgence would be my fault.

1999 might still have been excusable, but Putin castling with Medvedev? Everyone’s alarm bells should’ve gone off: “We’re headed towards totalitarianism, again”. Bow before the great father of the nation and let him rail your wife.

Allero,

If we follow the “original settlers” logic, we need to return Crimea to Tauris, or, in lieu of those in the modern world, Greeks, who settled there about 2 millenia earlier than Tatars and were later conquered by Romans, Khazars and Russians, and only then Tatars, who very much didn’t give a damn about anyone who lived there before them. “Original settlers” is always a bad justification, because various plots of land were inhabited by different people over the years. And currently, majority of Crimean population is Russian.

Right - many Tatars have returned, boosting Crimean Tatar population from ~1% to ~10%. That’s what should be their share in political power. Or should Crimean Greeks seize all the power? Crimea never was an independent republic, it was only reformed in early 1991 to an autonomous region - which was, however, still part of Ukrainian SSR and then remained an autonomous region of Ukraine. As such, talks on joining Russia would essentially be an act of separatism, sparking conflict to try and get into Russia that probably wouldn’t accept them to not provoke international backlash among huge crisis.

As per how Ukraine treated Crimea - the most pronounced side, one you probably think most about, is further support for Crimean Tatars; however, the Russian population (which, I remind you, is 6,5 times that of Crimean Tatars and a dominant nationality on the peninsula), as well as many Ukrainians themselves, were very much not happy about this development, sparking conflicts, so the benefit of such policy remains questionable. Actually, one of the hopes behind the transition was that Putin would better manage the Tatar question.

Economically, Crimea has won a lot over the transition to Russia, with massive infrastructure development, increase of wages, free trade with other regions of richer Russia, and increased flow of tourists fueling the economy. Also, Crimeans got easier access to Russian universities, which generally rank higher than Ukrainian ones.

I didn’t say that protests were massive - although for the level of control that government currently exerts and lack of oppositional leadership, the scale was indeed impressive. I’m saying that many people came to protest for the first time, because when this happens, no level of political ignorance can overwhelm THIS. When 1917 happened, people were starving to death. You would either die from a bullet, or from starvation. People chose bullets.

There is a lot that should have been done differently before the current moment, and it is people’s responsibility to not let that happen. But there we are, what now?

barsoap,

Actually, one of the hopes behind the transition was that Putin would better manage the Tatar question.

That is, utter naivete. It’s like Russians living in Estonia dreaming of Russian greatness, stepping across the border for the first time in 45 years, only to literally step in shit once they’re across and come back as quickly as they can.

There is a lot that should have been done differently before the current moment, and it is people’s responsibility to not let that happen. But there we are, what now?

Kremlin guards have fewer weapons than the Ukrainian army. Would you rather catch a bullet in Donbas or in Moscow? No landmines in front of the Kremlin, either. You’re Russian, you’re gonna say “валяй, ебёна мать!” one way or the other, question is where’s the cart bloody going?

If the Russian people don’t have that in them, then it’s going to be a grinding defeat in Ukraine followed by a regime-internal putsch and whatever the Siloviki come up with next, everyone up there already has made their move and it’s probably going to be another Gorbachev: Someone who the powers that be think is a safe and controllable option because he (definitely a he) manoeuvred to be seen as safe and controllable. On the upside, Swan Lake is a quite beautiful piece, actually. Though I have to admit I missed the 2nd act at the Bolshoi to sneak out with a girl, no regrets.

reverendsteveii,

Here’s an argument: there is no peace with Putin’s Russia ever. This isn’t the first time Putin has invaded Ukraine. He has proven time and again that “peace” with him is just a timeout while he re-arms. Then he bites off another chunk and goes “Why do you keep fighting? Don’t you want peace, you monster?”

Allero,

As I said numerous times in this thread, Ukraine should have NATO security guarantees, preferably ascension. That resolves the issue.

daltotron,

Not commenting on the main things you said, but it’s also very likely that america specifically is taking this as an opportunity to test and drain russia’s resources in a kind of extended proxy war, so there’s really no incentive to make a concerted effort to stop the current state of affairs, in any way. Especially as we’re seen as the good guys domestically, you know, it’s a pretty easy thing to garner support for.

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

Maybe they can draft those brave Americans and Europeans to come fight for them.

Gradually_Adjusting,
@Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world avatar

There have been volunteers from those places, so this isn’t the dunk you think it is

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

Wow a few volunteers. Meanwhile tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are forcibly thrown into the meat grinder while people wave on enthusiastically with their flag sending them into their deaths.

Gradually_Adjusting,
@Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world avatar

Ever been blocked just for being unpleasant and boring?

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

No just for speaking the truth.

Blue_Morpho,

When NATO had to attack Serbia to stop the ethnic cleansing, how many soldiers did Ukraine send to help NATO?

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

There is an ethnic cleansing going on in Palestine right now where is NATO at?

Oh right supplying the bombs to do it.

John_McMurray,

NATO is a defense treaty organization, not offensive. This isn’t complicated. Member nations can do what they they see fit as needed but only unprovoked attacks on members are the real purview.

barsoap,

185. Iraq, 1600. Couldn’t find good numbers on Afghanistan quickly but it seems to be on the order of 30.

Iraq sticks out, without being aware of the reasoning Ukraine had I’d say it’s to ingratiate themselves with the US, just as Poland did. 1600 people are more moral support than anything else.

Allero,

While taking no sides, I must say this is a personal attack.

If someone is bothering you and you plan on blocking them, just block them and go about your day.

No amount of righteousness is enough to ignore basic politeness, or else all discussions will turn into trash.

Gradually_Adjusting,
@Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world avatar

It has to be said I don’t agree with the downvotes here, even if it’s kind of funny. You went to bat for civility, and you’re right that it’s how the world should work.

Gradually_Adjusting,
@Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world avatar

Lots of discussions aren’t trash at all! Some of them start that way, and end in an object lesson. Nothing gets wasted round here.

fuckingkangaroos,

You’ve very clearly taken sides in this thread.

Allero,

Yes, but not in this particular discussion

The rest took place later. This was only a call for civility.

fuckingkangaroos,

Fair enough, it is important to stay civil.

barsoap,

A kill ratio of up to 1:10 is a meat grinder, yes, but not on the Ukrainian side.

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

A 1:2 or 1:3 ratio is very plausible. 1:10 is just consuming the kool aid from our side. Not surprising since we’re doing pretty hot on the propaganda as well:

Ukraine war: Zelensky says

US officials in August put the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed at 70,000 and as many as 120,000 injured.

barsoap,

I said “up to”. Places like Bakhmut have an overall 1:3 kill ratio, Avdivka is similar. Those rates are already bad enough and Russia has no qualms sending troops into a 1:10 killbox, those kinds of numbers are on the tactical not strategic level.

intensely_human,

With China, India, and North Korea all helping Russia, it’s basically getting an extra seven armies per turn at this point.

barsoap,

China isn’t so much helping but stringing along. They sent golf carts, the overall motto is “never interrupt your enemy while they’re making a mistake”. India’s friendship (if it can be called that) with Russia is only valid as long as Russia is still independent of China. Neither would risk actually breaking with the west over Russia, they’re not even up to exchanging a couple of blows. North Korea is a joke, anyway, and btw another reason for China to get pissed at Russia, the Chinese are not amused at the Russians handing NK rocket tech etc.

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

They’re certainly not but they could have been far lower if Europe and America were actually serious about sending weapons to Ukraine instead of just their old junk.

Russia has ramped up their production and is now producing almost 10 times the amount of artillery shells a year as get delivered to Ukraine. Meanwhile Biden is ignoring Ukraine to send all his weapons to israel.

barsoap,

Biden isn’t ignoring Ukraine, the GOP or better said the MAGA crowd is playing the conflict for political points.

Over here in Europe we understand the message: Trump wasn’t an exception, the US will stay, at best, fickle regarding any of their commitments, the Americans can’t be relied upon as a partner. I say fuck them good riddance.

And, no, stuff like IRIS-T aren’t “old junk” Germany itself doesn’t field those systems they’re that new. Stuff like the Gepard is old but so capable it’s still the best Flak out there. And yes I think we should send Taurus, pretty much everyone but the Chancellor and peaceniks think so. I guess it’s political calculation on his part: As long as there’s something we hold back the peaceniks have a hard time framing him as a war-monger, it’s trading immediate support vs. long-term support.

Also frankly speaking Taurus seems to be overkill when it comes to striking deep into Russia’s rear, Russian refineries aren’t protected by the anti-air installations that the thing is capable of circumventing and even taking down something highly protected like the Kerch bridge, even with bunker busters (which Taurus are) would take a massive barrage practically depleting the whole stock. It’s a lot of concrete.

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

Indeed but striking the oil refineries is actually effective. In fact it’s so effective that Biden told Ukraine to cut it out because it’s actually effective and they don’t want Ukraine to actually win something.

US urges Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, report says

barsoap,

The US clarified their position on that: They’re “not encouraging” attacks on refineries. Which is different from both “discouraging” and “encouraging”.

In fact it’s so effective that Biden told Ukraine to cut it out because it’s actually effective and they don’t want Ukraine to actually win something.

That’s some serious “US does everything it does because US is bad” thinking. 6-d CIA chess with evil cackling. There’s plenty of valid economic reasons to not be excited about Russian refineries getting decarbonised, first and foremost the world market price for petroleum products.

My take on that is that economy strategists in the White House are sitting there gritting their teeth after having been told to pound sand by the military strategists.

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

It’s really effective though. Ukraine was hitting Russia exactly where it hurts, their fuel storage and production. The big money. And then America says "No don’t do that, they might retaliate (as if Russia isn’t at war with Ukraine already?)

This is practically America saying “Go do war with Russia but don’t hit them where it hurts! Just throw some wet noodles at them!”

barsoap,

Well if the US doesn’t like Ukraine hitting refineries they’re free to send enough ATACMs etc. to be able to hit other targets that will have the same overall impact on Russian capabilities. As far as Ukraine is concerned it doesn’t matter whether Russia has no fuel or no trucks, tanks, planes, and missiles.

Which might be why the GOP opposition seems to be at least make appearance of possibly melting away, presumably lobbyists are working the non-MAGA crowd.

Jaytreeman,

I've met a bunch of Ukrainians online that just want the war done. They don't care who wins. They're seeing their family and friends die and they just want it to stop.

People seem to forget that this thing started because two oblasts didn't want to be part of Ukraine anymore. Russia escalated it for sure, but it still started as a separatist movement inside Ukraine.

kent_eh,

this thing started because two oblasts didn’t want to be part of Ukraine anymore.

Bullshit.

Jaytreeman,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic

There's a luhansk one as well.
Russia backed those separatists. Russia escalated it, but there was a sizable portion of the population that wanted out of Ukraine. I have zero idea how they feel about the 2022 annexation.

thadah,
@thadah@lemmy.world avatar

As even your Wikipedia article mentions, even though the east of Ukraine hasn’t always been in the same page politically, this separatist movement is fairly new and probably fueled by Russia since at least the 2010s and exploded after the Euromaidan protests .

You can see it by checking the Ukrainian Referendum of Independence of 1991.

…wikipedia.org/…/1991_Ukrainian_independence_refe…

Only 12-13% in those oblasts voted no, compared to the whopping 42% from Crimea, which is understandable because it was originally Russian territory ceded to the Ukranian SSR by Nikita Khrushchev as a gesture of goodwill (not that it justifies the 2014 annexation it suffered by Russia).

Even though the vote was about leaving the USSR, we can’t separate the Russian question completely from it, and it was an important issue during the referendum.

DarthFrodo,

Those Russian speaking separatists got heavily influenced by Russian disinformation and propaganda for years in preparation of the invasion, and supported by the Russian armed forces, precisely to have this justification. This is like saying Putin got 88% in the election, so clearly that’s the will of the people. Assuming that authoritarian regimes lead by secret service agents play by the rules of democracy is dangerous.

Imo it’s remarkable how successful they are at spreading their twisted narratives, even in western countries.

wintermute_oregon,

Is there something valuable in that region? Seems like removing them from Ukraine would be a smart choice to get rid of them. Since Ukraine was prospering better than Russia, give them what they want

fuckingkangaroos,

Fossil fuel and heavy infrastructure.

Jimmycakes,

Pretty sure they will care who wins when they get shipped off to Russian labor camps or sent to the front lines for whatever shit putin decides to invade next. I feel for their losses of loved ones but that’s a pretty dumb take.

Boiglenoight,

Russia is just helping those who want to leave leave yes that’s the ticket. The best way to do this is to try to decapitate the country’s leadership with a full scale invasion that includes devastating its infrastructure affecting millions of civilian lives.

Yes

Jaytreeman,

I really thought about putting some type of disclaimer about how this was a response I expected.
I regret not putting that down.
The online discourse on this is so black and white it's ridiculous.
There can be multiple reasons for things. Doesn't mean that any side is some type of white Knight.

Boiglenoight,

War, with its life and death seriousness, doesn’t leave a lot of room for nuanced arguments. Those are for peacetime. For now it’s simply Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine the defender, and Ukraine represents western democracy in a part of the world that is known for corrupt oligarchs. We back Ukraine not just because it’s right, but sensible. it’s that simple imo.

barsoap,

Russia doesn’t have Oligarchs it has minor nobles being viceroys, all power is by the grace of the Tsar – it’s even the Tsar’s power that they wield, probably unconstitutional for the Russian president to divide and give out his power and authority like that.

Ukraine still has actual oligarchs, though their influence is waning: Basically, when you’re a shady businessman one of the best strategies is to enjoy parliamentary immunity so those businessmen all sought office but they were never a unified block, they are competitors and often hate each other’s guts. The people thus got to be the kingmaker, could choose their favourite oligarch to run the country. Zelensky got electoral push from one of those Oligarchs because the incumbent Oligarch fucked that one over over some oil deals.

Boiglenoight,

List of current oligarchs en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_oligarchs?wprov=sft…

List of past Viceroyalties, which seemed to come to an end in early 1900s. en.wikipedia.org/…/List_of_viceroyalties_of_the_R…

I did learn that there’s an actual current Tsar in Russia working to restore Imperialist Russia? en.wikipedia.org/…/Grand_Duchess_Maria_Vladimirov…

barsoap,

Haha very funny.

But just to make this clear: The “Russian Oligarch” link you sent starts off with people from the 90s – that generation is gone, replaced by people hand-picked by Putin. They did not become filthily rich and then came to dominate politics, it’s the other way around: Trusted by Putin, they got installed in positions of power which comes with the privilege of skimming off money. That’s the exact same system the Tsars had. Putin knew Prigozhin since the 90s, they were old buddies.

Russia could, in principle, have turned towards an actual oligarchy like Ukraine, the oligarchs certainly tried to, see e.g. Khodorkovsky. In Russia the Siloviki didn’t let that happen, every single one of those oligarchs committed some crime you can nail them for – or not, if they stay in their lane, meaning out of politics. In Ukraine, for one reason or the other, that didn’t happen, they were let into parliament where they then could slowly be disempowered by the people, instead of three letter agency cadres. Which is also how power ultimately ended up with the people in Russia and (broadly speaking) the FSB in Russia.

assassin_aragorn,

Russia is just helping those who want to leave leave yes that’s the ticket.

Not to mention, this is an issue in Palestine where there’s no guarantee that the people displaced will be able to return their homes if they leave. That’s the Egypt defense at least, but there’s plenty of Americans who agree with that notion.

By the same principle, Russia allowing people to leave but preventing them from returning would be atrocious.

fuckingkangaroos, (edited )

Polls show that Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to fight Russia off. You’reYour “bunch of Ukrainians online” was probably Kremlin shills.

Jaytreeman,

Could be. There's lots of shills and bots out there

Anyolduser,

We’re busy using our tax dollars to equip them and keeping our troops where they won’t start a nuclear war.

intensely_human,

You mean giving them enough to stabilize the line, but not enough to push it back into Russia? For fear that would trigger nuclear war?

Anyolduser,

Boy, you must be fun at parties.

Fedizen,

We’re busy yanking our dicks to our lord and savior Donald Jesus Trump.

hark,
@hark@lemmy.world avatar

Best I can do is make my avatar yellow and blue and post “SLAVA UKRAINI” from time to time.

Leate_Wonceslace,
@Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

Everyone who disagrees with this Tankie: Remember to vote for Biden so Ukraine and Palestine are both able to survive their respective genocides.

intensely_human,

Biden is currently President. What is he going to do in a second term that he couldn’t have done in his first to end this?

Leate_Wonceslace,
@Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar
  1. It’s been less than half a year.
  2. Being the correct choice requires Biden only to be better than Trump.
  3. The person I was replying to is an obvious liar.
  4. The people of Ukraine and Trans Americans also hang in the balance.
  5. There are other considerations besides genocide to consider as well.
intensely_human,

And with regard to the question I asked?

You seem to have interpreted my comment as [generic anti biden message]. But I meant specifically what I asked.

Leate_Wonceslace,
@Leate_Wonceslace@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

I don’t believe you, but if I did I’d advise you to ask a foreign policy expert.

assassin_aragorn,

I’m incredibly disappointed in you. I thought you were better than this. You wouldn’t say “maybe they can draft those brave leftists to protect Palestinians”, would you?

Russia and Israel are both trying to conduct genocide and conquer land, with different degrees of success. I expected you to be anti genocide no matter the situation. I’m disappointed to see it’s just “opposite of the US” for you.

I didn’t agree with most of your takes, but I thought you were principled and they at least made me think. Guess I was wrong.

Linkerbaan,
@Linkerbaan@lemmy.world avatar

Yes voluntarily. A draft is FORCED. This is not about wanting to defend your own country this is about being forced into the meat grinder.

Zelensky recently replaced his top army general that said they were in a stalemate and now they have a guy nicknamed “the butcher”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wanted to give his military a shakeup by appointing General Oleksandr Syrskyi as commander-in-chief: many of his troops reacted with despair.

“Syrskyi will kill us all,” said one soldier, who like others in this story spoke on condition of being granted anonymity.

That was highlighted by Syrskyi overseeing last year’s dogged nine-month defense of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops suffered high casualties against relentless “meat waves” of Russian attackers before having to abandon the eastern city. That earned him the gruesome nickname of “Butcher.”

wintermute_oregon,

For all the Americans who want to send troops, I think they should sign up for the Ukrainian army. If they believe in the right so much, let them go fight the war.

While I support sending weapons, I do not support sending troops.

Pilferjinx,

I’ve actually considered joining the foreign legion. The commander seems fucking sketchy and not very brilliant strategically, that unnecessary risks his men. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to actually have nato commanders directing back line logistics and training.

wintermute_oregon,

Training is done by nato.

So I’ve had a few beers. The problem is nato is training is combined arms. Ukraine can’t do that. We expect to control the air and nato tactics are designed around that.

barsoap,

Ukraine seems to be following Baltic strategic suggestions. Technically NATO, just not the mainstream doctrine. But it makes sense that e.g. Estonians have thought more about how to fight the Russians on a back foot than American generals.

Aurenkin,

This is rough, I can’t even imagine the situation. We need to give Ukraine absolutely everything they need to win this war as quickly as possible with the least amount of casualties possible. Shame on those playing politics with this.

Lucidlethargy,

You mean the conservative republicans within the US government? Might as well name and shame here.

politico.eu/…/us-republicans-shameful-blocking-uk…

Passerby6497,

Yeah, anything less than pointing the finger at the one side actually causing issues is just mealy mouthed both sides bullshit.

intensely_human,

Our goal should be to give Ukraine triple what they need. Absolutely overwhelming power to drive Russia back and burn a few miles of its territory to the ground.

Long term, this minimizes loss of life. But we gotta think long term. The question should be “what will keep Russia from doing this again for a hundred years?”

NOT_RICHARD,
@NOT_RICHARD@lemmy.today avatar

Go all in and lower it to 16

FlyingSquid,
@FlyingSquid@lemmy.world avatar

I suppose you would prefer Kyiv to be a provincial capital of Russia?

Allero,

Not OP, but I, for one, would rather see that than a bunch of kids dying in the trenches. But better yet, secure the current border, start ceasefire and do the talking. Ukraine did gain leverage enough not to give up Kyiv or its statehood, something that was seen even by the way Russia approached peace talk suggestions over the months of the war.

assassin_aragorn,

It’ll never be enough. Don’t forget that Russia already conquered part of Ukraine with Crimea. History shows they won’t stop after getting another chunk of Ukraine.

Not to mention Russia was already bound diplomatically to defend Ukraine as part of the Budapest Memorandum. The USSR agreed to protect their sovereignty, and Russia has laid claim as the successor of the USSR – hence why they have the USSR seat on the UN security council.

Russia has shown that any treaty is temporary and that they will violate it when they feel like.

Allero,

Which is exactly why NATO should be involved in the talks and provide its own guarantees.

No one will trust Russia on that, and rightfully so.

assassin_aragorn,

Only way to make sure Russia doesn’t attack again is to stick NATO forces on the Ukrainian border with guns pointed at them the whole time, and a “do not cross” line that is strictly enforced.

Allero,

Why not? Let them stay on the border - with respect to Russian defensive interests, that is, i.e. do not accumulate a massive army right there

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