@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy
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BM_Visser

@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy

Professor Energy Transition & Networks Hanze University Groningen, The Netherlands.
Manager Strategy Gasunie
Fellow Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP).
Blogs (in Dutch) on www.Energiepodium.nl.
Facts matter!

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BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Comparison between the growth in renewable energy between The Netherlands and Denmark. Although Denmark is well known for its wind energy, the majority comes from biomass.

In 2030, the Netherlands wants to reach the current percentage of Denmark, albeit almost without biomass.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Also in 2023, there was a clear correlation between the day-ahead power prices and the residual load in the Netherlands.

I saw a similar picture for the German power market.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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The average Dutch power mix (and power price) in 2023.

Sustainable2050, to random
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Dutch CO2 emissions per kWh of electricity halved in 6 years time!
Much less coal, much more renewables (50% now).
By @BM_Visser

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@hembrow @Sustainable2050

Hi David, I calculated the Dutch CO2 emission per kWh using data from ENTSO-E and used www.energieopwek for solar and onshore wind. Moreover, I added cogeneration (e.g. greenhouses) which is significant in the Netherlands, but somehow missed in the ENTSO-E data. All assumptions/models were calibrated against CBS-data from previous years.
You may treat the CO2-numbers as a fairly good guess. I estimate the inaccuracy to be +/- 20 gr/kWh.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Most people think that EU electricity demand is increasing, In reality it was actually decreasing in 2023. After many years of stable demand.

I assume that this decrease is due to the high energy prices and the subsequent decrease in industrial production in Europe. Any other suggestions?

Note that electricity demand includes consumption from self-producers like solar panels and cogeneration.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@isotopp

The model used is actually quit good. First sum up all power generation. Most is measured and needs to, legally requirement, reported to national statistics office

(For not measured household solar, a calibrated model is used with rather good accuracy).

Than add the imports and subtract the exports and you will end with national power consumption.

Note that the model for small scale solar production is also needed to calculate the percentage renewable energy from each country.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

My new blog (in Dutch) on Energiepodium.nl: "Antibiotics or Oil".

https://energiepodium.nl/artikel/antibiotica-of-olie

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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Today, mid-Winter on January 8th 2024, the Netherlands produced the same amount of solar energy as on the most sunny day of Summer 2019.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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An often ignored 'detail' about the German 'success' of lower CO2 emission (mainly coal) and higher percentage renewables in the German power mix between 2017 and 2023 is partly due to a 12% lower power demand* and 22% lower power production**.

*I think, this is due to a sigificant decline (offshoring) of production activities.
**German has transformed from net power exporting country (46 TWh in 2017) towards net power imporying country (8 TWh in 2023).

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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In five years, the percentage renwables in the Dutch electricity market has increased from 15% to 50%.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
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In 2023, the Dutch CO2 emission per inhabitant, due to the usage of coal, oil and natural gas, was at the same level as in 1959.

BM_Visser,
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

@helma

Data on the usage of gas, oil and coal from CBS (National Dutch Statical Office).https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/nl/dataset/83140NED/table?ts=1704465770251

I have calculated the CO2 emissions from these sources using the data from RVO (https://www.rvo.nl/files/file/2022-05/Nederlandse%20energiedragerlijst%20versie%20januari_2022_definitief.pdf

BM_Visser, (edited ) to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In 2023, despite the high gas prices, the four remaining Dutch coal-fired power stations were hardly used due to (1) the relative warm winter, (2) solar and wind and (3) the decreased power demand.
Total contribution of these power stations to the Dutch electricity mix was only 10%, of which 2/3 was hard coal and 1/3 was biomass co-firing.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

The number of hours, with production of green hydrogen cheaper (marginal costs) than production of blue blue or grey hydrogen, is increasing. The reason is the increasing fraction of solar and wind in the electricity mix.
Prices on the Dutch market, with 43% solar and wind in the electricity mix in 2023.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

The year 2023 was rather windy in the Netherlands. Per MW installed, about 22% more windenergy has been produced, according to data from www.Energieopwek.nl.

Since the installed capacity increased as well, the total quantity of windenergy in 2023 was 40% larger than in 2022.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

The year 2023 is the breakthrough of negative power prices in Northwest Europe.

I expect much more of them in the coming years, since the growth rate of solar and wind capacity around the North Sea is expected to be much higher than the combined growth rate of final power demand, batteries and electrolysers.

By the way, does anybody know a source from where I can download the UK day-ahead power prices?

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In 2023, the average daily (!) production of solar PV in the Netherlands was equal to the full year solar PV production in the Netherlands in 2010.

In 2023, solar electricity provided about 17,5% of the total electriciity demand in the Netherlands. In 2010, this was just 0,05%.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Natural gas prices for 2024 have closed at the lowest point of 2023, at €34,46/MWh. In the beginning of 2023, this price was around €80/MWh.
A reason is the rather warm winter until now, combined with gas storages that are still 85% filled.
Structurally for Europe more important therefore, is that also the gas price for 2025 closed at the lowest level in this year and that also the gas prices for 2026-2028 are decreasing..

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

The huge Dutch natural gas storages (14 bcm) enter 2024 with a record level of 82% full. For the EU in total, it is 87%.

This causes significant pressure on the EU natural gas (and electricity) market prices and hence, will help EU citizens and businesses to cope with the energy crisis.
As a side effect, payments for Russian natural gas supplies to the EU (and the world market) will decrease as well.

BM_Visser, (edited ) to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In December, the Netherlands, always has a very low production of solar energy. The reason is that the Netherlands is positioned far away from the equator. December 2023 is even 40% worse than normal.

However, the average daily solar PV production in December 2023 is still similar than in June 2017.
Thanks to the enormous growth of solarPV capacity in the Netherlands.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

For whatever reason, there is a firm linear relationship between the percentage of solar and wind in the daily Dutch electricty mix, and the daily power price. Is such a relation also existent in other countries?

The absolute value of the power price is mainly determined by the marginal costs of gas-fired power generation, i.e. the natural gas price and the CO2-ETS-costs.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In 2023, NW-Europe had a record number of hours with negative power prices (day ahead). Such prices occur due to oversupply of electricity from sources with zero marginal costs (mainly solar and wind).
I expect that the number of hours with negative prices in NW-Europa will increase considerably in the coming years, because the growth of solar and wind (10-20% annually*) will be much larger than the growth of electricity consumption (about 1-2% annually*)
*source: FitFor55 scenario's).

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

De EU accomplished its '20-20-20' objective to have at least 20% renewables in 2020

Will it also succeed its 'Green Deal' ambition of 42,5% renewables in 2030?

This would imply a threefold increase in the growth rate of renewables compared to recent history.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

Between 2010 and 2022, the fraction of renewable energy in global primary energy demand has increased from 13,5% to 16%.

This increase is due to wind, solar and hydro, as the fraction of (traditional and modern) biomass in global primary energy demand was stable at 10%.

BM_Visser, to random Dutch
@BM_Visser@mastodon.energy avatar

In 2022, according to Eurostat, the 41,2% of all electricity in the EU27 came from renewable sources.
In 2021, this was 37,5%.

With 40% renewables, the Netherlands were mid-table in 2022.

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